Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

Do intravitreal Ranibizumab injections for wet age-related macular degeneration affect the vitreomacular interface?

Presentation Abstract - Purpose:Serial intravitreal ranibizumab injections are the main treatment for wet age- related macular degeneration (AMD), and patients are monitored by optical coherence tomography (OCT). Our objective in conducting this study is to determine whether serial intravitreal injections of ranibizumab in eyes with wet AMD alter the vitreo-macular interface (VMI) Methods - Using a Topcon Spectral Domain OCT, we performed a prospective, observational study of 87 eyes of 82 consecutive patients undergoing treatment with intravitreal ranibizumab for wet AMD, with each patient followed up for a minimum of 6 months. The mean number of intravitreal ranibizumab injections was 4.28, range 3-6. Using macular OCT scans, the area of VMI was closely examined, for vitreo-macular adhesion (VMA), defined as perifoveal posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) with posterior vitreous attached to fovea. Any OCT separation of posterior vitreous face was observed and measured, every month for 6 months. Results - There was no change in the OCT appearance or measurement of VM interface in 80 eyes (92%). VM adhesion, defined on OCT as when the posterior hyaloid line is attached to inner foveal surface and dettached perifoveally, was identified in 7 out of 87 treated eyes (8%) .Of these 7 eyes, 1 eye developed complete PVD following three injections, 1 eye developed partial PVD and the remaining 5 eyes had no significant change in VM adhesion. Conclusions - To our knowledge this is the first study that has examined the VM interface following serial ranibizumab injections for wet AMD. This small pilot study suggests that most cases undergoing ranibizumab therapy suffer no disturbance to VM interface.

The relationship between CA/C ratio and individual differences in dynamic accommodative responses while viewing stereoscopic images

The oculomotor synergy as expressed by the CA/C and AC/A ratios was investigated to examine its influence on our previous observation that whereas convergence responses to stereoscopic images are generally stable, some individuals exhibit significant accommodative overshoot. Using a modified video refraction unit while viewing a stereoscopic LCD, accommodative and convergence responses to balanced and unbalanced vergence and focal stimuli (BVFS and UBVFS) were measured. Accommodative overshoot of at least 0.3 D was found in 3 out of 8 subjects for UBVFS. The accommodative response differential (RD) was taken to be the difference between the initial response and the subsequent mean static steady-state response. Without overshoot, RD was quantified by finding the initial response component. A mean RD of 0.11 +/- 0.27 D was found for the 1.0 D step UBVFS condition. The mean RD for the BVFS was 0.00 +/- 0.17 D. There was a significant positive correlation between CA/C ratio and RD (r = +0.75, n = 8, p <0.05) for only UBVFS. We propose that inter-subject variation in RD is influenced by the CA/C ratio as follows: an initial convergence response, induced by disparity of the image, generates convergence-driven accommodation commensurate with the CA/C ratio; the associated transient defocus subsequently decays to a balanced position between defocus-induced and convergence-induced accommodations.

Trade liberalization and the efficiency of firms in Indian manufacturing

Has the efficiency of firms in India improved since its liberalization in 1991? The authors attempt to answer this question by analyzing the determinants of firm-level efficiency in six manufacturing sectors in India while focusing on the effects of liberalization and domestic competition. They find that there was an increase in overall efficiency in the post-reform period in India in five out of six sectors. While imports do not seem to improve efficiency, liberalization did increase efficiency in four of the sectors.

Analysis of spatial patterns in histological sections of brain tissue

A method is described which enables the spatial pattern of discrete objects in histological sections of brain tissue to be determined. The method can be applied to cell bodies, sections of blood vessels or the characteristic lesions which develop in the brain of patients with neurodegenerative disorders. The density of the histological feature under study is measured in a series of contiguous sample fields arranged in a grid or transect. Data from adjacent sample fields are added together to provide density data for larger field sizes. A plot of the variance/mean ratio (V/M) of the data versus field size reveals whether the objects are distributed randomly, uniformly or in clusters. If the objects are clustered, the analysis determines whether the clusters are randomly or regularly distributed and the mean size of the clusters. In addition, if two different histological features are clustered, the analysis can determine whether their clusters are in phase, out of phase or unrelated to each other. To illustrate the method, the spatial patterns of senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles were studied in histological sections of brain tissue from patients with Alzheimer's disease.

The spatial patterns of Pick bodies, Pick cells and Alzheimer’s disease pathology in Pick’s disease

The spatial patterns of Pick bodies (PB), Pick cells (PC), senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were studied in the frontal and temporal lobe in nine cases of Pick’s disease (PD). Pick bodies exhibited clustering in 41/44 (93%) of analyses and clusters of PB were regularly distributed parallel to the tissue boundary in 24/41 (58%) of analyses. Pick cells exhibited clustering with regular periodicity of clusters in 14/16 (88%) analyses, SP in three out of four (75%) analyses and NFT in 21/27 (78%) analyses. The largest clusters of PB were observed in the dentate gyrus and PC in the frontal cortex. In 10/17 (59%) brain areas studied, a positive or negative correlation was observed between the densities of PB and PC. The densities of PB and NFT were not significantly correlated in the majority of brain areas but a negative correlation was observed in 7/29 (24%) brain areas. The data suggest that PB and PC in patients with PD exhibit essentially the same spatial patterns as SP and NFT in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Lewy bodies (LB) in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). In addition, there was a spatial correlation between the clusters of PB and PC, suggesting a pathogenic relationship between the two lesions. However, in the majority of tissues examined there was no spatial correlation between the clusters of PB and NFT, suggesting that the two lesions develop in association with different populations of neurons.

An exploration of female leadership language:case studies of senior women in Bahrain

This is a multiple case study of the leadership language of three senior women working in a large corporation in Bahrain. The study’s main aim is to explore the linguistic practices the women leaders use with their colleagues and subordinates in corporate meetings. Adopting a Foucauldian (1972) notion of ‘discourses’ as social practices and a view of gender as socially constructed and discursively performed (Butler 1990), this research aims to unveil the competing discourses which may shape the leadership language of senior women in their communities of practice. The research is situated within the broader field of Sociolinguistics and the specific field of Language and Gender. To address the research aim, a case study approach incorporating multiple methods of qualitative data collection (observation, interviews, and shadowing) was utilised to gather information about the three women leaders and produce a rich description of their use of language in and out of meeting contexts. For analysis, principles of Qualitative Data Analysis (QDA) were used to organise and sort the large amount of data. Also, Feminist Post- Structuralist Discourse Analysis (FPDA) was adopted to produce a multi-faceted analysis of the subjects, their language leadership, power relations, and competing discourses in the context. It was found that the three senior women enact leadership differently making variable use of a repertoire of conventionally masculine and feminine linguistic practices. However, they all appear to have limited language resources and even more limiting subject positions; and they all have to exercise considerable linguistic expertise to police and modify their language in order to avoid the ‘double bind’. Yet, the extent of this limitation and constraints depends on the community of practice with its prevailing discourses, which appear to have their roots in Islamic and cultural practices as well as some Western influences acquired throughout the company’s history. It is concluded that it may be particularly challenging for Middle Eastern women to achieve any degree of equality with men in the workplace because discourses of Gender difference lie at the core of Islamic teaching and ideology.

A quantitative study of abnormally enlarged neurons in cognitively normal brain and neurodegenerative disease

Abnormally enlarged neurons (AEN) occur in many neurodegenerative diseases. To define AEN more objectively, the frequency distribution of the ratio of greatest cell diameter(CD) to greatest nuclear diameter (ND) was studied in populations of cortical neurons in tissue sections of seven cognitively normal brains. The frequency distribution of CD/ND deviated from a normal distribution in 15 out of 18 populations of neurons studied and hence, the 95th percentile (95P) was used to define a limit of the CD/ND ratio excluding the5% most extreme observations. The 95P of the CD/ ND ratio varied from 2.0 to 3.0 in different cases and regions and a value of 95P = 3.0 was chosen to define the limit for normalneurons under non-pathological conditions. Based on the 95P = 3.0 criterion, the proportion of AEN with a CD/ND ≥ 3 varied from 2.6% in Alzheimer's disease (AD) to 20.3% in Pick's disease (PiD). The data suggest: (1) that a CL/ND ≥ 3.0 may be a useful morphological criterion for defining AEN, and (2) AEN were most numerous in PiD and corticobasal degeneration (CBD) and least abundant in AD and in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). © 2013 Dustri-Verlag Dr. K. Feistle.

Development of areolae and growth of the peripheral prothallus in the crustose lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum:an image analysis study

Areolae of the crustose lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC., are present on the peripheral prothallus (marginal areolae) and also aggregate to form confluent masses in the centre of the thallus (central areolae). To determine the relationships between these areolae and whether growth of the peripheral prothallus is dependent on the marginal areolae, the density, morphology, and size frequency distributions of marginal areolae were measured in 23 thalli of R. geographicum in north Wales, UK using image analysis (Image J). Size and morphology of central areolae were also studied across the thallus. Marginal areolae were small, punctate, and occurred in clusters scattered over the peripheral prothallus while central areolae were larger and had a lobed structure. The size-class frequency distributions of the marginal and central areolae were fitted by power-law and log-normal models respectively. In 16 out of 23 thalli, central areolae close to the outer edge were larger and had a more complex lobed morphology than those towards the thallus centre. Neither mean width nor radial growth rate (RaGR) of the peripheral prothallus were correlated with density, diameter, or area fraction of marginal areolae. The data suggest central areolae may develop from marginal areolae as follows: (1) marginal areolae develop in clusters at the periphery and fuse to form central areolae, (2) central areolae grow exponentially, and (3) crowding of central areolae results in constriction and fragmentation. In addition, growth of the peripheral prothallus may be unrelated to the marginal areolae. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, soluble intercellular adhesin molecule-1 and IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid as predictors of infection in total joint prosthesis revision

The diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection and its differentiation from aseptic loosening remains problematic. The definitive laboratory diagnostic test is the recovery of identical infectious agents from multiple intraoperative tissue samples; however, interpretation of positive cultures is often complex as infection is frequently associated with low numbers of commensal microorganisms, in particular the coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS). In this investigation, the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) as predictors of infection in revision hip replacement surgery is assessed. Furthermore, the diagnostic value of serum IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid (sce-LTA) is assessed in patients with infection due to CNS. Presurgical levels of conventional serum markers of infection including C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and white blood cell count (WBC) is also established. Forty-six patients undergoing revision hip surgery were recruited with a presumptive clinical diagnosis of either septic (16 patients) or aseptic loosening (30 patients). The diagnosis was confirmed microbiologically and levels of serum markers were determined. Serum levels of IL-6 and sICAM-1 were significantly raised in patients with septic loosening (P=0.001 and P=0.0002, respectively). Serum IgG to sce-LTA was elevated in three out of four patients with infection due to CNS. In contrast, PCT was not found to be of value in differentiating septic and aseptic loosening. Furthermore, CRP, ESR and WBC were significantly higher (P=0.0001, P=0.0001 and P=0.003, respectively) in patients with septic loosening. Serum levels of IL-6, sICAM-1 and IgG to sce-LTA may provide additional information to facilitate the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection.

Host country nationals' support to expatriates:an investigation in Turkey

Using data from 243 executives in Turkey, we investigate the relationship(s) between perceived values similarity, in-group/out-group categorisation, interpersonal effect and Host Country National (HCN) willingness to offer role information and social support to expatriates. Results of this study confirm that HCNs are more likely to offer support to expatriates whom they categorise as in-group, as well as to those who they perceive as holding similar values. In addition, our data suggest that Turkish HCNs are more likely to offer support to Indian expatriates as compared to expatriates from the USA, and to expatriates who are assigned to work as their supervisors rather than to expatriate subordinates. We discuss implications of our findings for multinational corporations and suggest future research ideas.

Evaluation of routine microbiological techniques for establishing the diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infection caused by coagulase-negative staphylococci

Microbiological diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI) is often based on isolation of indistinguishable micro-organisms from an explanted catheter tip and blood culture, confirmed by antibiograms. Whether phenotypic identification of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) allows an accurate diagnosis of CR-BSI to be established was evaluated. Eight patients with a diagnosis of CR-BSI had CoNS isolated from pure blood cultures and explanted catheter tips which were considered as indistinguishable strains by routine microbiological methods. For each patient, an additional three colonies of CoNS isolated from the blood and five from the catheter tip were subcultured and further characterized by antibiogram profiles, analytical profile index (API) biotyping and PFGE. PFGE distinguished more strains of CoNS compared to API biotyping or antibiograms (17, 10 and 11, respectively). By PFGE, indistinguishable micro-organisms were only isolated from pure blood and catheter tip cultures in four out of eight (50%) patients thus supporting the diagnosis of CR-BSI. In another patient, indistinguishable micro-organisms were identified in both cultures; however, other strains of CoNS were also present. The remaining three patients had multiple strains of CoNS, none of which were indistinguishable in the tip and blood cultures, thus questioning the diagnosis of CR-BSI. Phenotypic characterization of CoNS lacked discriminatory power. Current routine methods of characterizing a limited number of pooled colonies may generate misleading results as multiple strains may be present in the cultures. Multiple colonies should be studied using a rapid genotypic characterization method to confirm or refute the diagnosis of CR-BSI. © 2007 SGM.

Dynamic measurement of accommodative responses while viewing stereoscopic images

Using video refraction accommodative and convergence dynamic responses were measured to stepped changes in convergence stimuli with unchanged accommodative stimuli (conflicting stereoscopic image) and compared with responses to non-conflicting target stimuli. Three targets were used that varied in their spatial frequency components. An accommodative transient overshoot was evident in four out of seven subjects for only conflicting stimuli. One showed accommodative and convergence oscillation probably due to difficulty in fusing the stereoscopic target when it had a higher spatial component, however, this oscillation diminished when the target was spatial low-pass filtered. We hypothesise that transient responses to step stimuli is initiated by convergence-driven accommodation and subsequently followed by slower fine-control of accommodation modulated by the amount of blur. Inter-subject differences in convergence-driven accommodation may also be a factor to consider. For stereoscopic stimuli, it is proposed that the increase in blur immediately after the onset of the accommodative response inhibits cessation of the response.

Mathematical modelling and optimal multivariable control of chemical processes

This work reports the developnent of a mathenatical model and distributed, multi variable computer-control for a pilot plant double-effect climbing-film evaporator. A distributed-parameter model of the plant has been developed and the time-domain model transformed into the Laplace domain. The model has been further transformed into an integral domain conforming to an algebraic ring of polynomials, to eliminate the transcendental terms which arise in the Laplace domain due to the distributed nature of the plant model. This has made possible the application of linear control theories to a set of linear-partial differential equations. The models obtained have well tracked the experimental results of the plant. A distributed-computer network has been interfaced with the plant to implement digital controllers in a hierarchical structure. A modern rnultivariable Wiener-Hopf controller has been applled to the plant model. The application has revealed a limitation condition that the plant matrix should be positive-definite along the infinite frequency axis. A new multi variable control theory has emerged fram this study, which avoids the above limitation. The controller has the structure of the modern Wiener-Hopf controller, but with a unique feature enabling a designer to specify the closed-loop poles in advance and to shape the sensitivity matrix as required. In this way, the method treats directly the interaction problems found in the chemical processes with good tracking and regulation performances. Though the ability of the analytical design methods to determine once and for all whether a given set of specifications can be met is one of its chief advantages over the conventional trial-and-error design procedures. However, one disadvantage that offsets to some degree the enormous advantages is the relatively complicated algebra that must be employed in working out all but the simplest problem. Mathematical algorithms and computer software have been developed to treat some of the mathematical operations defined over the integral domain, such as matrix fraction description, spectral factorization, the Bezout identity, and the general manipulation of polynomial matrices. Hence, the design problems of Wiener-Hopf type of controllers and other similar algebraic design methods can be easily solved.

Factors determining the growth curve of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa

Growth curves of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa (Ehrh. Ex Ach.)Ach. Were obtained by plotting radial growth (RGR, mm yr-1) of the fastest measured lobe, the slowest measured lobe, a randomly selected lobe, and by averaging a sample of lobes from each thallus against thallus diameter. Growth curves derived from the fastest-growing lobe and by averaging lobes were asymptotic and could be fitted by the growth model of Aplin and Hill. Mean lobe width increased with thallus size, reaching a maximum at approx. 4.5 cm thallus diameter. In four out of six thalli, radial growth of lobes over four months was positively correlated with initial lobe width or area. The RGR of isolated lobes was unaffected until the base of the lobe was removed to within 1-2 mm of the tip. The concentration (micrograms mg-1 biomass) of ribitol, arabitol and mannitol was greater in the marginal lobes of large than in small thalli. The results suggested that the growth curve of P. conspersa is determined by processes that occur within individual marginal lobes and can be explained by the Aplin and Hill model. Changes in lobe width and in the productive capacity of individual lobes with thallus size are likely to be more important factors than the degree of translocation within the lobe in determining the growth curve.