Integrated approach to project feasibility analysis:a case study

Feasibility studies of industrial projects consist of multiple analyses carried out sequentially. This is time consuming and each analysis screens out alternatives based solely on the merits of that analysis. In cross-country petroleum pipeline project selection, market analysis determines throughput requirement and supply and demand points. Technical analysis identifies technological options and alternatives for pipe-line routes. Economic and financial analysis derive the least-cost option. The impact assessment addresses environmental issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, routes, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This report suggests an integrated approach to feasibility analysis presented as a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again till the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through above process often results sub-optimal project as financial analysis may eliminate better options, as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system, which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision support system for project selection

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical, and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again until the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through the above process often results in suboptimal projects as financial analysis may eliminate better options as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select an optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2008, IGI Global.

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Feasibility studies of an on-line identification technique

This thesis is concerned with the study of a non-sequential identification technique, so that it may be applied to the identification of process plant mathematical models from process measurements with the greatest degree of accuracy and reliability. In order to study the accuracy of the technique under differing conditions, simple mathematical models were set up on a parallel hybrid. computer and these models identified from input/output measurements by a small on-line digital computer. Initially, the simulated models were identified on-line. However, this method of operation was found not suitable for a thorough study of the technique due to equipment limitations. Further analysis was carried out in a large off-line computer using data generated by the small on-line computer. Hence identification was not strictly on-line. Results of the work have shovm that the identification technique may be successfully applied in practice. An optimum sampling period is suggested, together with noise level limitations for maximum accuracy. A description of a double-effect evaporator is included in this thesis. It is proposed that the next stage in the work will be the identification of a mathematical model of this evaporator using the teclmique described.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Analysis and optimisation of the performance of nonlinear optical communication systems

We investigate the feasibility of simultaneous suppressing of the amplification noise and nonlinearity, representing the most fundamental limiting factors in modern optical communication. To accomplish this task we developed a general design optimisation technique, based on concepts of noise and nonlinearity management. We demonstrate the immense efficiency of the novel approach by applying it to a design optimisation of transmission lines with periodic dispersion compensation using Raman and hybrid Raman-EDFA amplification. Moreover, we showed, using nonlinearity management considerations, that the optimal performance in high bit-rate dispersion managed fibre systems with hybrid amplification is achieved for a certain amplifier spacing – which is different from commonly known optimal noise performance corresponding to fully distributed amplification. Required for an accurate estimation of the bit error rate, the complete knowledge of signal statistics is crucial for modern transmission links with strong inherent nonlinearity. Therefore, we implemented the advanced multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, acknowledged for its efficiency in estimating distribution tails. We have accurately computed acknowledged for its efficiency in estimating distribution tails. We have accurately computed marginal probability density functions for soliton parameters, by numerical modelling of Fokker-Plank equation applying the MMC simulation technique. Moreover, applying a powerful MMC method we have studied the BER penalty caused by deviations from the optimal decision level in systems employing in-line 2R optical regeneration. We have demonstrated that in such systems the analytical linear approximation that makes a better fit in the central part of the regenerator nonlinear transfer function produces more accurate approximation of the BER and BER penalty. We present a statistical analysis of RZ-DPSK optical signal at direct detection receiver with Mach-Zehnder interferometer demodulation

Damage analysis of bridge structures using vibrational techniques

Much research is currently centred on the detection of damage in structures using vibrational data. The work presented here examined several areas of interest in support of a practical technique for identifying and locating damage within bridge structures using apparent changes in their vibrational response to known excitation. The proposed goals of such a technique included the need for the measurement system to be operated on site by a minimum number of staff and that the procedure should be as non-invasive to the bridge traffic-flow as possible. Initially the research investigated changes in the vibrational bending characteristics of two series of large-scale model bridge-beams in the laboratory and these included ordinary-reinforced and post-tensioned, prestressed designs. Each beam was progressively damaged at predetermined positions and its vibrational response to impact excitation was analysed. For the load-regime utilised the results suggested that the infuced damage manifested itself as a function of the span of a beam rather than a localised area. A power-law relating apparent damage with the applied loading and prestress levels was then proposed, together with a qualitative vibrational measure of structural damage. In parallel with the laboratory experiments a series of tests were undertaken at the sites of a number of highway bridges. The bridges selected had differing types of construction and geometric design including composite-concrete, concrete slab-and-beam, concrete-slab with supporting steel-troughing constructions together with regular-rectangular, skewed and heavily-skewed geometries. Initial investigations were made of the feasibility and reliability of various methods of structure excitation including traffic and impulse methods. It was found that localised impact using a sledge-hammer was ideal for the purposes of this work and that a cartridge `bolt-gun' could be used in some specific cases.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Analytical and numerical analysis of 40 Gbit/s regenerated transmissions using simple black box optical regenerator

A simplified (without phase modulator) scheme of a black box optical regenerator is proposed, where an appropriate nonlinear propagation is used to enhance regeneration. Applying semi-theoretical models the authors optimise and demonstrate feasibility of error-free long distance transmission at 40 Gbit/s.

Incorporating social role theory into topic models for social media content analysis

In this paper, we explore the idea of social role theory (SRT) and propose a novel regularized topic model which incorporates SRT into the generative process of social media content. We assume that a user can play multiple social roles, and each social role serves to fulfil different duties and is associated with a role-driven distribution over latent topics. In particular, we focus on social roles corresponding to the most common social activities on social networks. Our model is instantiated on microblogs, i.e., Twitter and community question-answering (cQA), i.e., Yahoo! Answers, where social roles on Twitter include "originators" and "propagators", and roles on cQA are "askers" and "answerers". Both explicit and implicit interactions between users are taken into account and modeled as regularization factors. To evaluate the performance of our proposed method, we have conducted extensive experiments on two Twitter datasets and two cQA datasets. Furthermore, we also consider multi-role modeling for scientific papers where an author's research expertise area is considered as a social role. A novel application of detecting users' research interests through topical keyword labeling based on the results of our multi-role model has been presented. The evaluation results have shown the feasibility and effectiveness of our model.

Self-powered desalination of geothermal saline groundwater:technical feasibility

This theoretical study shows the technical feasibility of self-powered geothermal desalination of groundwater sources at <100 °C. A general method and framework are developed and then applied to specific case studies. First, the analysis considers an ideal limit to performance based on exergy analysis using generalised idealised assumptions. This thermodynamic limit applies to any type of process technology. Then, the analysis focuses specifically on the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driving Reverse Osmosis (RO), as these are among the most mature and efficient applicable technologies. Important dimensionless parameters are calculated for the ideal case of the self-powered arrangement and semi-ideal case where only essential losses dependent on the RO system configuration are considered. These parameters are used to compare the performance of desalination systems using ORC-RO under ideal, semi-ideal and real assumptions for four case studies relating to geothermal sources located in India, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Turkey. The overall system recovery ratio (the key performance measure for the self-powered process) depends strongly on the geothermal source temperature. It can be as high as 91.5% for a hot spring emerging at 96 °C with a salinity of 1830 mg/kg.

Analysis and design of power management scheme for an on-board solar energy storage system

This paper investigates the power management issues in a mobile solar energy storage system. A multi-converter based energy storage system is proposed, in which solar power is the primary source while the grid or the diesel generator is selected as the secondary source. The existence of the secondary source facilitates the battery state of charge detection by providing a constant battery charging current. Converter modeling, multi-converter control system design, digital implementation and experimental verification are introduced and discussed in details. The prototype experiment indicates that the converter system can provide a constant charging current during solar converter maximum power tracking operation, especially during large solar power output variation, which proves the feasibility of the proposed design. © 2014 IEEE.

Improving the management of behaviour that challenges associated with dementia in care homes:protocol for pharmacy-health psychology intervention feasibility study

INTRODUCTION: The inappropriate use of antipsychotics in people with dementia for behaviour that challenges is associated with an estimated 1800 deaths annually. However, solely focusing on antipsychotics may transfer prescribing to other equally dangerous psychotropics. Little is known about the role of pharmacists in the management of psychotropics used to treat behaviours that challenge. This research aims to determine whether it is feasible to implement and measure the effectiveness of a combined pharmacy-health psychology intervention incorporating a medication review and staff training package to limit the prescription of psychotropics to manage behaviour that challenges in care home residents with dementia. METHODS/ANALYSIS: 6 care homes within the West Midlands will be recruited. People with dementia receiving medication for behaviour that challenges, or their personal consultee, will be approached regarding participation. Medication used to treat behaviour that challenges will be reviewed by the pharmacist, in collaboration with the general practitioner (GP), person with dementia and carer. The behavioural intervention consists of a training package for care home staff and GPs promoting person-centred care and treating behaviours that challenge as an expression of unmet need. The primary outcome measure is the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Nursing Home version (NPI-NH). Other outcomes include quality of life (EQ-5D and DEMQoL), cognition (sMMSE), health economic (CSRI) and prescribed medication including whether recommendations were implemented. Outcome data will be collected at 6 weeks, and 3 and 6 months. Pretraining and post-training interviews will explore stakeholders' expectations and experiences of the intervention. Data will be used to estimate the sample size for a definitive study. ETHICS/DISSEMINATION: The project has received a favourable opinion from the East Midlands REC (15/EM/3014). If potential participants lack capacity, a personal consultee will be consulted regarding participation in line with the Mental Capacity Act. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences.