Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Families 'at risk' and the family nurse partnership:the intrusion of risk into social exclusion policy

This article considers why the family nurse partnership (FNP) has been promoted as a means of tackling social exclusion in the UK. The FNP consists in a programme of visits by nurses to low-income first-time mothers, both while the mothers are pregnant and for the first two years following birth. The FNP is focused on both teaching parenthood and encouraging mothers back into education and/or into employment. Although the FNP marks a considerable discontinuity with previous approaches to family health, it is congruent with an emerging new approach to social exclusion. This new approach maintains that the most important task of social policy is to identify quickly the most 'at-risk' households, individuals and children so that interventions can be targeted more effectively at those 'at risk', either to themselves or to others. The article illustrates this new approach by analysing a succession of reports by the Social Exclusion Unit. It indicates that there is a considerable amount of ambiguity about the relationship between specific risk-factors and being 'at risk of social exclusion'. Nonetheless, this new approach helps to explain why British policy-makers may have chosen to promote the new FNP now. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

Success factors of product innovation:an updated meta-analysis

Assessing factors that predict new product success (NPS) holds critical importance for companies, as research shows that despite considerable new product investment, success rates are generally below 25%. Over the decades, meta-analytical attempts have been made to summarize empirical findings on NPS factors. However, market environment changes such as increased global competition, as well as methodological advancements in meta-analytical research, present a timely opportunity to augment their results. Hence, a key objective of this research is to provide an updated and extended meta-analytic investigation of the factors affecting NPS. Using Henard and Szymanski's meta-analysis as the most comprehensive recent summary of empirical findings, this study updates their findings by analyzing articles published from 1999 through 2011, the period following the original meta-analysis. Based on 233 empirical studies (from 204 manuscripts) on NPS, with a total 2618 effect sizes, this study also takes advantage of more recent methodological developments by re-calculating effects of the meta-analysis employing a random effects model. The study's scope broadens by including overlooked but important additional variables, notably “country culture,” and discusses substantive differences between the updated meta-analysis and its predecessor. Results reveal generally weaker effect sizes than those reported by Henard and Szymanski in 2001, and provide evolutionary evidence of decreased effects of common success factors over time. Moreover, culture emerges as an important moderating factor, weakening effect sizes for individualistic countries and strengthening effects for risk-averse countries, highlighting the importance of further investigating culture's role in product innovation studies, and of tracking changes of success factors of product innovations. Finally, a sharp increase since 1999 in studies investigating product and process characteristics identifies a significant shift in research interest in new product development success factors. The finding that the importance of success factors generally declines over time calls for new theoretical approaches to better capture the nature of new product development (NPD) success factors. One might speculate that the potential to create competitive advantages through an understanding of NPD success factors is reduced as knowledge of these factors becomes more widespread among managers. Results also imply that managers attempting to improve success rates of NPDs need to consider national culture as this factor exhibits a strong moderating effect: Working in varied cultural contexts will result in differing antecedents of successful new product ventures.

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

The human factors of automatic speech recognition in control room systems

This thesis addresses the viability of automatic speech recognition for control room systems; with careful system design, automatic speech recognition (ASR) devices can be useful means for human computer interaction in specific types of task. These tasks can be defined as complex verbal activities, such as command and control, and can be paired with spatial tasks, such as monitoring, without detriment. It is suggested that ASR use be confined to routine plant operation, as opposed the critical incidents, due to possible problems of stress on the operators' speech.  It is proposed that using ASR will require operators to adapt a commonly used skill to cater for a novel use of speech. Before using the ASR device, new operators will require some form of training. It is shown that a demonstration by an experienced user of the device can lead to superior performance than instructions. Thus, a relatively cheap and very efficient form of operator training can be supplied by demonstration by experienced ASR operators. From a series of studies into speech based interaction with computers, it is concluded that the interaction be designed to capitalise upon the tendency of operators to use short, succinct, task specific styles of speech. From studies comparing different types of feedback, it is concluded that operators be given screen based feedback, rather than auditory feedback, for control room operation. Feedback will take two forms: the use of the ASR device will require recognition feedback, which will be best supplied using text; the performance of a process control task will require task feedback integrated into the mimic display. This latter feedback can be either textual or symbolic, but it is suggested that symbolic feedback will be more beneficial. Related to both interaction style and feedback is the issue of handling recognition errors. These should be corrected by simple command repetition practices, rather than use error handling dialogues. This method of error correction is held to be non intrusive to primary command and control operations. This thesis also addresses some of the problems of user error in ASR use, and provides a number of recommendations for its reduction.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

The human factors of computer input using a mouse device

This thesis investigates how people select items from a computer display using the mouse input device. The term computer mouse refers to a class of input devices which share certain features, but these may have different characteristics which influence the ways in which people use the device. Although task completion time is one of the most commonly used performance measures for input device evaluation, there is no consensus as to its definition. Furthermore most mouse studies fail to provide adequate assurances regarding its correct measurement.Therefore precise and accurate timing software were developed which permitted the recording of movement data which by means of automated analysis yielded the device movements made. Input system gain, an important task parameter, has been poorly defined and misconceptualized in most previous studies. The issue of gain has been clarified and investigated within this thesis. Movement characteristics varied between users and within users, even for the same task conditions. The variables of target size, movement amplitude, and experience exerted significant effects on performance. Subjects consistently undershot the target area. This may be a consequence of the particular task demands. Although task completion times indicated that mouse performance had stabilized after 132 trials the movement traces, even of very experienced users, indicated that there was still considerable room for improvement in performance, as indicated by the proportion of poorly made movements. The mouse input device was suitable for older novice device users, but they took longer to complete the experimental trials. Given the diversity and inconsistency of device movements, even for the same task conditions, caution is urged when interpreting averaged grouped data. Performance was found to be sensitive to; task conditions, device implementations, and experience in ways which are problematic for the theoretical descriptions of device movement, and limit the generalizability of such findings within this thesis.

The derivation and application of risk tolerability criteria

This research involves a study of the questions, "what is considered safe", how are safety levels defined or decided, and according to whom. Tolerable or acceptable risk questions raise various issues: about values and assumptions inherent in such levels; about decision-making frameworks at the highest level of policy making as well as on the individual level; and about the suitability and competency of decision-makers to decide and to communicate their decisions. The wide-ranging topics covering philosophical and practical concerns examined in the literature review reveal the multi-disciplined scope of this research. To support this theoretical study empirical research was undertaken at the European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). ESTEC is a large, multi-nationality, high technology organisation which presented an ideal case study for exploring how decisions are made with respect to safety from a personal as well as organisational aspect. A qualitative methodology was employed to gather, analyse and report the findings of this research. Significant findings reveal how experts perceive risks and the prevalence of informal decision-making processes partly due to the inadequacy of formal methods for deciding risk tolerability. In the field of occupational health and safety, this research has highlighted the importance and need for criteria to decide whether a risk is great enough to warrant attention in setting standards and priorities for risk control and resources. From a wider perspective and with the recognition that risk is an inherent part of life, the establishment of tolerability risk levels can be viewed as cornerstones indicating our progress, expectations and values, of life and work, in an increasingly litigious, knowledgeable and global society.

The knowledge-based perspective of risk management in healthcare organisations

The aim of this research is to investigate how risk management in a healthcare organisation can be supported by knowledge management. The subject of research is the development and management of existing logs called "risk registers", through specific risk management processes employed in a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust in England, in the U.K. Existing literature on organisational risk management stresses the importance of knowledge for the effective implementation of risk management programmes, claiming that knowledge used to perceive risk is biased by the beliefs of individuals and groups involved in risk management and therefore is considered incomplete. Further, literature on organisational knowledge management presents several definitions and categorisations of knowledge and approaches for knowledge manipulation in the organisational context as a whole. However, there is no specific approach regarding "how to deal" with knowledge in the course of organisational risk management. The research is based on a single case study, on a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust, is influenced by principles of interpretivism and the frame of mind of Soft Systems Methodology (S.S.M.) to investigate the management of risk registers, from the viewpoint of people involved in the situation. Data revealed that knowledge about risks and about the existing risk management policy and procedures is situated in several locations in the Trust and is neither consolidated nor present where and when required. This study proposes a framework that identifies required knowledge for each of the risk management processes and outlines methods for conversion of this knowledge, based on the SECI knowledge conversion model, and activities to facilitate knowledge conversion so that knowledge is effectively used for the development of risk registers and the monitoring of risks throughout the whole Trust under study. This study has theoretical impact in the management science literature as it addresses the issue of incomplete knowledge raised in the risk management literature using concepts of the knowledge management literature, such as the knowledge conversion model. In essence, the combination of required risk and risk management related knowledge with the required type of communication for risk management creates the proposed methods for the support of each risk management process for the risk registers. Further, the indication of the importance of knowledge in risk management and the presentation of a framework that consolidates knowledge required for the risk management processes and proposes way(s) for the communication of this knowledge within a healthcare organisation have practical impact in the management of healthcare organisations.

Calendar effects and the pricing of risk:the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.