A fuzzy levelised energy cost method for renewable energy technology assessment

Renewable energy project development is highly complex and success is by no means guaranteed. Decisions are often made with approximate or uncertain information yet the current methods employed by decision-makers do not necessarily accommodate this. Levelised energy costs (LEC) are one such commonly applied measure utilised within the energy industry to assess the viability of potential projects and inform policy. The research proposes a method for achieving this by enhancing the traditional discounting LEC measure with fuzzy set theory. Furthermore, the research develops the fuzzy LEC (F-LEC) methodology to incorporate the cost of financing a project from debt and equity sources. Applied to an example bioenergy project, the research demonstrates the benefit of incorporating fuzziness for project viability, optimal capital structure and key variable sensitivity analysis decision-making. The proposed method contributes by incorporating uncertain and approximate information to the widely utilised LEC measure and by being applicable to a wide range of energy project viability decisions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance measurement with fuzzy data envelopment analysis

The intensity of global competition and ever-increasing economic uncertainties has led organizations to search for more efficient and effective ways to manage their business operations. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been widely used as a conceptually simple yet powerful tool for evaluating organizational productivity and performance. Fuzzy DEA (FDEA) is a promising extension of the conventional DEA proposed for dealing with imprecise and ambiguous data in performance measurement problems. This book is the first volume in the literature to present the state-of-the-art developments and applications of FDEA. It is designed for students, educators, researchers, consultants and practicing managers in business, industry, and government with a basic understanding of the DEA and fuzzy logic concepts.

The state of the art in fuzzy data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. Crisp input and output data are fundamentally indispensable in conventional DEA. However, the observed values of the input and output data in real-world problems are sometimes imprecise or vague. Many researchers have proposed various fuzzy methods for dealing with the imprecise and ambiguous data in DEA. This chapter provides a taxonomy and review of the fuzzy DEA (FDEA) methods. We present a classification scheme with six categories, namely, the tolerance approach, the α-level based approach, the fuzzy ranking approach, the possibility approach, the fuzzy arithmetic, and the fuzzy random/type-2 fuzzy set. We discuss each classification scheme and group the FDEA papers published in the literature over the past 30 years. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Assessing productive efficiency of banks using integrated Fuzzy-DEA and bootstrapping:a case of Mozambican banks

Performance analysis has become a vital part of the management practices in the banking industry. There are numerous applications using DEA models to estimate efficiency in banking, and most of them assume that inputs and outputs are known with absolute precision. Here, we propose new Fuzzy-DEA α-level models to assess underlying uncertainty. Further, bootstrap truncated regressions with fixed factors are used to measure the impact of each model on the efficiency scores and to identify the most relevant contextual variables on efficiency. The proposed models have been demonstrated using an application in Mozambican banks to handle the underlying uncertainty. Findings reveal that fuzziness is predominant over randomness in interpreting the results. In addition, fuzziness can be used by decision-makers to identify missing variables to help in interpreting the results. Price of labor, price of capital, and market-share were found to be the significant factors in measuring bank efficiency. Managerial implications are addressed.