Surface wind fields (on Earth)

This document sets out to clarify the role of fronts and other atmospheric features on the form of surface wind fields. This is intended as a basic meteorological review of the typical features we will encounter in wind fields. Thus there is a strong emphasis on description at a fairly rudimentary level. The document should prove useful as we think about different models we could adopt for wind fields.

Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data.

Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

The Role of the big five personality traits, proactive behaviour, and socialisation influences in newcomer adjustment

During the early stages of employment, newly hired employees find out what their new organisations are like. Their first impressions are extremely important in determining the course of subsequent attitudes and behaviour. Recently, a considerable progress has been made towards the understanding of adjustment process, however, the literature remain divided along a number of fronts. Moreover, newcomer research has been conducted independent and irrespective of newcomer personality individual differences. This seems to be a critical oversight because there is overlap in predictions involving these constructs. The current research extended the previous one by examining these multiple antecedents, including Big Five personality traits of newcomer to the tandem process of adjustment as well as outcomes that immediate, or ?proximal? to the process of newcomer adjustment. Following a cross sectional pilot study of recent college graduate, a three- wave longitudinal study of newcomers in seven organisations examined Big Five personality traits, proactive behaviour, and socialisation influence (formal training, leaders, co-workers) as antecedents of proximal adjustment outcomes (group integration, political knowledge of organisation, and task performance). The main study results suggested that personality traits were related to proximal adjustment outcomes, specifically, Conscientiousness was positively related to all proximal adjustment outcomes. Openness to experience was related to task performance and political knowledge. Group integration is independently related to Agreeableness, Extraversion and Neuroticism. The socialisation influence moderate these relations, for example, leader socialisation moderate Conscientiousness as it relates to political knowledge and group integration, while co-worker moderate Extraversion as it relates to task performance. Finally, it was found that, the relationship between proximal adjustment outcomes and the personality dimensions Openness was mediated by proactive behaviour. Overall, the results suggested that individual differences have a role in newcomer adjustment as it facilitate the socialisation influence, and Big Five was one of the key determinants of newcomer adjustment.

Transducer diffraction theory and development of an ultrasonic tomogram

The work described in this thesis is the development of an ultrasonic tomogram to provide outlines of cross-sections of the ulna in vivo. This instrument, used in conjunction with X-ray densitometry previously developed in this department, would provide actual bone mineral density to a high resolution. It was hoped that the accuracy of the plot obtained from the tomogram would exceed that of existing ultrasonic techniques by about five times. Repeat measurements with these instruments to follow bone mineral changes would involve very low X-ray doses. A theoretical study has been made of acoustic diffraction, using a geometrical transform applicable to the integration of three different Green's functions, for axisymmetric systems. This has involved the derivation of one of these in a form amenable to computation. It is considered that this function fits the boundary conditions occurring in medical ultrasonography more closely than those used previously. A three dimensional plot of the pressure field using this function has been made for a ring transducer, in addition to that for disc transducers using all three functions. It has been shown how the theory may be extended to investigate the nature and magnitude of the particle velocity, at any point in the field, for the three functions mentioned. From this study. a concept of diffraction fronts has been developed, which has made it possible to determine energy flow also in a diffracting system. Intensity has been displayed in a manner similar to that used for pressure. Plots have been made of diffraction fronts and energy flow direction lines.

Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Logistics by rail:is this the key to more sustainable traffic policies in Northern Germany?

Despite the fact that Germany has a well- expanded traffic infrastructure, the country con-fronts a strong growth in freight volumes and it is very likely that in the forthcoming yearsit will not be able to reasonably cope with the increasing demand. Against this back-ground, the aim of this paper is to provide an in-depth analysis of the transport sector in North Germany in an effort to identify, if any, the possibilities of collapse as a result of the continuous increase in the demand of freight traffic. The research based on the DelphiTechnique, collects, analyses and summarizes the opinions of a group of experts in theaforementioned issues. Results indicate that railways could represent the solution to theforecasted growing freight volumes in the next years, not only in Germany, but also in thewhole European transport sector. In spite of continuous efforts undertaken by the politicsand the economy, the existing logistics and freight traffic concepts are not sufficient. Fi-nancing is too scarce; traffic concepts take issues like sustainability, environment protec-tion and working conditions into little consideration.

Strategists' reactions and resistance towards forces of inclusion:soothing the anxiety of marketing (non-) influence

The firm is becoming more and more inclusive in its conception. And yet, marketing studies point to the same overwhelming conclusion that marketing, marketing departments and marketers are being increasingly 'pushed out' - excluded. We argue that where and when inclusion-exclusion intersect in the practice of strategic marketing is important, not least because their powerful boundary-setting and spanning roles have a determinant effect on the places and spaces, within which marketing strategists are (counter-) mobilized. This paper provides new insights relating to the contradictory forces existing around inclusion-exclusion in corporate strategizing. A further aim is to present the position of marketing (non-) influence within this context. The paper provides a unique theoretical contribution by illustrating some of the contradictions, struggles and activities that make the theoretical shift towards strategic inclusivity unstable, partial and by no means inevitable. A further contribution is a linking of this broader strategic debate, with anxieties over the influence of marketing in corporate strategizing. This leads to a discussion of the various ways that marketing research can sooth the anxiety of influence on multiple fronts via: understanding agency and strategic action; shaping marketing curriculum development; and, reconsidering the spatial dimensions of marketing influence. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Influence of macroscopic residual stress fields on fatigue crack growth measurement in SiC particulate reinforced 8090 aluminium alloy

The effect of residual stresses, induced by cold water quenching, on the morphology of fatigue crack fronts has been investigated in a powder metallurgy 8090 aluminium alloy, with and without reinforcement in the form of 20 wt-%SiC particles. Residual stress measurements reveal that the surface compressive stresses developed in these materials are significantly greater than in conventional metallurgy ingot 8090, because surface yielding occurs on quenching. The yield stresses of the powder route materials are greater than those of ingot produced 8090 and hence greater surface stresses can be maintained. In fatigue, severe crack front bowing is observed in the powder formed materials as a result of the reduction of the R ratio (minimum load/maximum load) by the compressive residual stresses at the sides of the specimen, causing premature crack closure and hence reducing the local driving force for fatigue crack growth ΔKeff. This distortion of the crack fronts introduces large errors into measurements of crack growth rate and threshold values of ΔK.