21 resultados para Extreme climatic events

em Aston University Research Archive


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Wider scientific community now accept that the threat of climate change as real and thus acknowledge the importance of implementing adaptation measures in a global context. In the UK , the physical effects of climate change are likely to be directly felt in the form of extreme weather events, which are predicted to escalate in number and severity in future under the changing climatic conditions. Construction industry; which consists of supply chains running across various other industries, economies and regions, will also be affected due to these events. Thus, it is important that the construction organisations are well prepared to withstand the effects of extreme weather events not only directly affecting their organisations but also affecting their supply chains which in turn might affect the organisation concerned. Given the fact that more than 99% of construction sector businesses are SMEs, the area can benefit significantly from policy making to improve SME resilience and coping capacity. This paper presents the literature review and synthesis of a doctoral research study undertaken to address the issue of extreme weather resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains. The main contribution of the paper to both academia and practitioners is a synthesis model that conceptualises the factors that enhances resilience of SMEs and their supply chains against extreme weather events. This synthesis model forms the basis of a decision making framework that will enable SMEs to both reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coping capacity against extreme weather. The value of this paper is further extended by the overall research design that is set forth as the way forward.

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Purpose – The UK experienced a number of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) during recent years and a significant number of businesses were affected as a result. With the intensity and frequency of weather extremes predicted in the future, enhancing the resilience of businesses, especially of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), who are considered as highly vulnerable, has become a necessity. However, little research has been undertaken on how construction SMEs respond to the risk of EWEs. In seeking to help address this dearth of research, this investigation sought to identify how construction SMEs were being affected by EWEs and the coping strategies being used. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed methods research design was adopted to elicit information from construction SMEs, involving a questionnaire survey and case study approach. Findings – Results indicate a lack of coping strategies among the construction SMEs studied. Where the coping strategies have been implemented, these were found to be extensions of their existing risk management strategies rather than radical measures specifically addressing EWEs. Research limitations/implications – The exploratory survey focused on the Greater London area and was limited to a relatively small sample size. This limitation is overcome by conducting detailed case studies utilising two SMEs whose projects were located in EWE prone localities. The mixed method research design adopted benefits the research by presenting more robust findings. Practical implications – A better way of integrating the potential of EWEs into the initial project planning stage is required by the SMEs. This could possibly be achieved through a better risk assessment model supported by better EWE prediction data. Originality/value – The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of resilience of SMEs and policy making in the area of EWE risk management. It informs both policy makers and practitioners on issues of planning and preparedness against EWEs.

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Projections into future increasingly suggest that the intensity and frequency of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) will increase in the future. This has demanded the business organisations as well to be prepared to face the increasing risk of EWEs, in order to ensure their business continuity. However, current evidence base suggests that businesses, especially SMEs, are not adequately prepared to face the threat of such events. Ability to adequately prepare them has been hindered by the lack of in depth studies addressing this issue. The paper presents a doctoral study designed to investigate the resilience of SMEs operating in the construction sector; which is said to be a highly vulnerable sector for the impacts of EWEs, and their supply chains to EWEs. A conceptual framework developed to investigate this issue is presented and explained. It is argued that the resilience of construction SMEs and their supply chains against EWEs can be improved by a combination of reducing their vulnerability, enhancing coping capacity and implementing coping mechanisms. Importance of undertaking a broader view to include the whole supply chain in making business decisions with regard to EWEs by SMEs is also highlighted.

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Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs); which generate more than one half of the employment and turnover, form an important sector of the UK economy. In fact, SMEs are considered as the backbone of the UK economy due to their significant economic and societal importance. Despite SMEs being the main drivers of the UK economy, they are also said to be the most vulnerable to the impacts from various disruptions such as Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). Consequently, increased intensity and frequency of weather extremes in the UK during the recent past has created a significant impact on the SME community. As the threat of EWEs is expected to further increase in future, the need for SMEs to implement effective coping mechanisms to manage the effects of EWEs is also increasing. This paper aims to identify and evaluate the current coping mechanisms implemented by SMEs to ensure their business continuity in the event of a weather extreme. The paper presents the findings of a questionnaire survey, conducted as part of "Community Resilience to Extreme Weather - CREW" research project, addressing this issue. It is identified that SMEs mostly rely on generic business continuity strategies as opposed to property level protection measures. The paper highlights the importance of raising the uptake of coping strategies by SMEs, as many were found without adequate coping strategies to deal with the risk of EWEs.

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Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs), which generate more than one half of the employment (58.9%) and turnover (51.9%), form an important sector of the UK economy. Although they are the main drivers of the UK economy, they are also said to be the most vulnerable to the impacts of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). The world in recent years has experienced a significant number of EWEs, and SMEs have suffered significant economic losses as a result. The now apparent climate change, which is mostly attributed to human interference with the environment over the past few decades, is believed to have a strong link with the increase of EWEs in the recent past. Threats of EWEs are expected to further increase due to their increased frequency and magnitude and increased vulnerability to their effects. Interestingly, EWEs seem to present businesses with various business opportunities and positive consequences as well, besides the much feared and overwhelming threats and negative consequences they present. Understanding such impacts has become a necessity to improve the resilience of SMEs so that they will be better prepared to minimise the negative consequences and maximise the positive consequences posed by EWEs. This paper attempts to bring together and evaluate the current knowledge with regard to the effects of EWEs on SMEs. The paper establishes the case for more in-depth study with this regard and concludes by stressing the need for improving the resilience of SMEs to EWEs.

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Enhancing the resilience of local communities to weather extremes has gained significant interest over the years, amidst the increased intensity and frequency of such events. The fact that such weather extremes are forecast to further increase in number and severity in future has added extra weight to the importance of the issue. As a local community consists of a number of community groups such as households, businesses and policy makers, the actions of different community groups in combination will determine the resilience of the community as a whole. An important role has to be played by Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs); which is an integral segment of a local community in the UK, in this regard. While it is recognised that they are vital to the economy of a country and determines the prosperity of communities, they are increasingly vulnerable to effects of extreme weather. This paper discusses some of the exploratory studies conducted in the UK on SMEs and their ability to cope with extreme weather events, specifically flooding. Although a reasonable level of awareness of the risk was observed among the SMEs, this has not always resulted in increased preparedness even if they are located in areas at risk of flooding. The attitude and the motivation to change differed widely between SMEs. The paper presents schemas by which the SMEs can identify their vulnerability better so that they can be populated among a community of SMEs, which can be taken forward to inform policy making in this area. Therefore the main contribution the paper makes to the body of knowledge in the area is a novel way to communicate to SMEs on improving resilience against extreme weather, which will inform some of the policy making initiatives in the UK.

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Purpose Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which form a significant portion in many economies, are some of the most vulnerable to the impact of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. In the UK, previous research has identified construction SMEs as some of the worst affected by EWEs. Design/methodology/approach Given the recent occurrences of EWEs and predictions suggesting increases in both the intensity and frequency of EWEs in the future, improving the resilience of construction SMEs is vital for achieving a resilient construction industry. A conceptual framework is first developed which is then populated and expanded based on empirical evidence. Positioned within a pragmatic research philosophy, case study research strategy was adopted as the overall research strategy in undertaking this investigation. Findings Based on the findings of two in-depth case studies of construction SMEs, a framework was developed to represent EWE resilience of construction SMEs, where resilience was seen as a collective effect of vulnerability, coping strategies and coping capacities of SMEs, characteristics of the EWE and the wider economic climate. Originality/value The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of the resilience of SMEs, and policy making in the area of EWE risk management by presenting a novel conceptual framework depicting the resilience of medium-sized construction companies.

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Determining an appropriate research methodology is considered as an important element in a research study; especially in a doctoral research study. It involves approach to the entire process of a research study, starting from theoretical underpinnings and spanning to data collection and analysis, and extending to developing the solutions for the problems investigated. Research methodology in essence is focused around the problems to be investigated in a research study and therefore varies according to the problems investigated. Thus, identifying the research methodology that best suits a research in hand is important, not only as it will benefit achieving the set objectives of a research, but also as it will serve establishing the credibility of the work. Research philosophy, approach, strategy, choice, and techniques are inherent components of the methodology. Research strategy provides the overall direction of the research including the process by which the research is conducted. Case study, experiment, survey, action research, grounded theory and ethnography are examples for such research strategies. Case study is documented as an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident. Case study was adopted as the overarching research strategy, in a doctoral study developed to investigate the resilience of construction Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK to extreme weather events. The research sought to investigate how construction SMEs are affected by EWEs, respond to the risk of EWEs, and means of enhancing their resilience to future EWEs. It is argued that utilising case study strategy will benefit the research study, in achieving the set objectives of the research and answering the research questions raised, by comparing and contrasting with the alternative strategies available. It is also claimed that the selected strategy will contribute towards addressing the call for improved methodological pluralism in construction management research, enhancing the understanding of complex network of relationships pertinent to the industry and the phenomenon being studied.

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Intranet technologies accessible through a web based platform are used to share and build knowledge bases in many industries. Previous research suggests that intranets are capable of providing a useful means to share, collaborate and transact information within an organization. To compete and survive successfully, business organisations are required to effectively manage various risks affecting their businesses. In the construction industry too this is increasingly becoming an important element in business planning. The ability of businesses, especially of SMEs which represent a significant portion in most economies, to manage various risks is often hindered by fragmented knowledge across a large number of businesses. As a solution, this paper argues that Intranet technologies can be used as an effective means of building and sharing knowledge and building up effective knowledge bases for risk management in SMEs, by specifically considering the risks of extreme weather events. The paper discusses and evaluates relevant literature in this regard and identifies the potential for further research to explore this concept.

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Determining an appropriate research methodology is considered as an important element in a research study; especially in a doctoral research study. It involves approach to the entire process of a research study, starting from theoretical underpinnings and spanning to data collection and analysis, and extending to developing the solutions for the problems investigated. Research methodology in essence is focused around the problems to be investigated in a research study and therefore varies according to the problems investigated. Thus, identifying the research methodology that best suits a research in hand is important, not only as it will benefit achieving the set objectives of a research, but also as it will serve establishing the credibility of the work. Research philosophy, approach, strategy, choice, and techniques are inherent components of the methodology. Research strategy provides the overall direction of the research including the process by which the research is conducted. Case study, experiment, survey, action research, grounded theory and ethnography are examples for such research strategies. Case study is documented as an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident. Case study was adopted as the overarching research strategy, in a doctoral study developed to investigate the resilience of construction Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK to extreme weather events. The research sought to investigate how construction SMEs are affected by EWEs, respond to the risk of EWEs, and means of enhancing their resilience to future EWEs. It is argued that utilising case study strategy will benefit the research study, in achieving the set objectives of the research and answering the research questions raised, by comparing and contrasting with the alternative strategies available. It is also claimed that the selected strategy will contribute towards addressing the call for improved methodological pluralism in construction management research, enhancing the understanding of complex network of relationships pertinent to the industry and the phenomenon being studied.

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Weather extremes have created a considerable impact on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK during the recent years, especially on SMEs in the construction sector. Evidence in relation to the recent weather extremes have demonstrated that SMEs are some of the worst impacted by the Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) and have confirmed them as a highly vulnerable section of the UK economy to the impact of extreme weather. This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. Whilst construction has been perceived as a sector significantly vulnerable to the impacts of EWEs, there is scant evidence of how construction SMEs respond to such events and cope with their impact. Based on the evidence emerged from case studies of construction SMEs, current coping strategies of construction SMEs were identified. Some of the strategies identified were focused at organisational level whereas others were focused at project level. Further, some of the strategies were general risk management / business continuity strategies whereas others have been specifically developed to address the risk of EWEs. Accordingly, coping strategies can be broadly categorised based on their focus; i.e. those focused at project or organisational level, and based on the risks that they seek to address; i.e. business / continuity risks in general or EWE risk specifically. By overlapping these two aspects; their focus and risks that they seek to address, four categories of coping strategies can be devised. There are; general risk management strategies focused at business level, general risk management strategies focused at project level, EWE specific strategies focused at business level, and EWE specific strategies focused at project level. It is proposed that for a construction SME to effectively cope with the impact of EWEs and develop their resilience against EWEs a rich mix of these coping strategies are required to suite the particular requirements of the business.

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The construction industry is susceptible to extreme weather events (EWEs) due to most of its activities being conducted by manual workers outdoors. Although research has been conducted on the effects of EWEs, such as flooding and snowfall, limited research has been conducted on the effects of heatwaves and hot weather conditions. Heatwaves present a somewhat different risk profile to construction, unlike EWEs such as flooding and heavy snowfall that present physical obstacles to work onsite. However, heatwaves have affected the construction industry in the UK, and construction claims have been made due to adverse weather conditions. With heatwaves being expected to occur more frequently in the coming years, the construction industry may suffer unlike any other industry during the summer months. This creates the need to investigate methods that would allow construction activities to progress during hot summer months with minimal effect on construction projects. Hence, the purpose of this paper. Regions such as the Middle East and the UAE in particular flourish with mega projects, although temperatures soar to above 40̊C in the summer months. Lessons could be learnt from such countries and adapted in the UK. Interviews have been conducted with a lead representative of a client, a consultant and a contractor, all of which currently operate on UAE projects. The key findings include one of the preliminary steps taken by international construction companies operating in the UAE. This involves restructuring their entire regional team by employing management staff from countries such as Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and their labour force from the sub-continent such as India and Pakistan. This is not only due to the cheap wage rate but also to the ability to cope and work in such extreme hot weather conditions. The experience of individuals working in the region allows for future planning, where the difference in labour productivity during the extreme hot weather conditions is known, allowing precautionary measures to be put in place.

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Automatically generating maps of a measured variable of interest can be problematic. In this work we focus on the monitoring network context where observations are collected and reported by a network of sensors, and are then transformed into interpolated maps for use in decision making. Using traditional geostatistical methods, estimating the covariance structure of data collected in an emergency situation can be difficult. Variogram determination, whether by method-of-moment estimators or by maximum likelihood, is very sensitive to extreme values. Even when a monitoring network is in a routine mode of operation, sensors can sporadically malfunction and report extreme values. If this extreme data destabilises the model, causing the covariance structure of the observed data to be incorrectly estimated, the generated maps will be of little value, and the uncertainty estimates in particular will be misleading. Marchant and Lark [2007] propose a REML estimator for the covariance, which is shown to work on small data sets with a manual selection of the damping parameter in the robust likelihood. We show how this can be extended to allow treatment of large data sets together with an automated approach to all parameter estimation. The projected process kriging framework of Ingram et al. [2007] is extended to allow the use of robust likelihood functions, including the two component Gaussian and the Huber function. We show how our algorithm is further refined to reduce the computational complexity while at the same time minimising any loss of information. To show the benefits of this method, we use data collected from radiation monitoring networks across Europe. We compare our results to those obtained from traditional kriging methodologies and include comparisons with Box-Cox transformations of the data. We discuss the issue of whether to treat or ignore extreme values, making the distinction between the robust methods which ignore outliers and transformation methods which treat them as part of the (transformed) process. Using a case study, based on an extreme radiological events over a large area, we show how radiation data collected from monitoring networks can be analysed automatically and then used to generate reliable maps to inform decision making. We show the limitations of the methods and discuss potential extensions to remedy these.

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Ultra-endurance races are extreme exercise events that can take place over large parts of a day, several consecutive days or over weeks and months interspersed by periods of rest and recovery. Since the first ultraendurance races in the late 1970s, around 1000 races are now held worldwide each year, and more than 100000 people take part. Although these athletes appear to be fit and healthy, there have been occasional reports of severe complications following ultra-endurance exercise. Thus there is concern that repeated extreme exercise events could have deleterious effects on health, which might be brought about by the high levels of ROS (reactive oxygen species) produced during exercise. Studies that have examined biomarkers of oxidative damage following ultra-endurance exercise have found measurements to be elevated for several days, which has usually been interpreted to reflect increased ROS production. Levels of the antioxidant molecule GSH (reduced glutathione) are depleted for 1 month or longer following ultra-endurance exercise, suggesting an impaired capacity to copewith ROS. The present paper summarizes studies that have examined the oxidative footprint of ultra-endurance exercise in light of current thinking in redox biology and the possible health implications of such extreme exercise. © The Authors Journal compilation © 2014 Biochemical Society.

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Climate change has become one of the prime challenges the society has to face in the future. As far as businesses are concerned, it also has added one other important issue that they have to consider as part of their business planning. Climate change is of significant importance particularly to the Small and Medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are considered as the most vulnerable among the business community to the effects of climate change. This paper presents the findings of a literature review conducted with the aim of identifying the specific importance of climate change to the construction sector SMEs. The objectives of the paper are to identify the vulnerability of construction sector SMEs to the effects of climate change, their consequences and also to identify the importance of improving resilience and implementing adaptive measures to manage these issues. The paper also outlines the directions of a study undertaken to address these issues as part of an EPSRC funded research project titled “Community Resilience to Extreme Weather Events – CREW”. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of improving the resilience of construction sector SMEs to climate change effects and also the importance of collective action in this regard.