Linking the witness simulation software to an expert system to represent a decision-making process

Expert systems, and artificial intelligence more generally, can provide a useful means for representing decision-making processes. By linking expert systems software to simulation software an effective means of including these decision-making processes in a simulation model can be achieved. This paper demonstrates how a commercial-off-the-shelf simulation package (Witness) can be linked to an expert systems package (XpertRule) through a Visual Basic interface. The methodology adopted could be used for models, and possibly software, other than those presented here.

An expert system for the development of a health and safety policy/risk assessment in the plastics industry

Health and safety policies may be regarded as the cornerstone for positive prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. The Health and Safety at Work, etc Act 1974 makes it a legal duty for employers to prepare and revise a written statement of a general policy with respect to the health and safety at work of employees as well as the organisation and arrangements for carrying out that policy. Despite their importance and the legal equipment to prepare them, health and safety policies have been found, in a large number of plastics processing companies (particularly small companies), to be poorly prepared, inadequately implemented and monitored. An important cause of these inadequacies is the lack of necessary health and safety knowledge and expertise to prepare, implement and monitor policies. One possible way of remedying this problem is to investigate the feasibility of using computers to develop expert system programs to simulate the health and safety (HS) experts' task of preparing the policies and assisting companies implement and monitor them. Such programs use artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to solve this sort of problems which are heuristic in nature and require symbolic reasoning. Expert systems have been used successfully in a variety of fields such as medicine and engineering. An important phase in the feasibility of development of such systems is the engineering of knowledge which consists of identifying the knowledge required, eliciting, structuring and representing it in an appropriate computer programming language.

Expert system design for cold form sections

The concept of an Expert System (ES) has been acknowledged as a very useful tool, but few studies have been carried out in its application to the design of cold rolled sections. This study involves primarily the use of an ES as a tool to improve the design process and to capture the draughtsman's knowledge. Its main purpose is to reduce substantially the time taken to produce a section drawing, thereby facilitating a speedy feedback to the customer. In order to communicate with a draughtsman, it is necessary to use sketches, symbolic representations and numerical data. This increases the complexity of programming an ES, as it is necessary to use a combination of languages so that decisions, calculations, graphical drawings and control of the system can be effected. A production system approach is used and a further step has been taken by introducing an Activator which is an autoexecute operation set up by the ES to operate an external program automatically. To speed up the absorption of new knowledge into the knowledge base, a new Learning System has been constructed. In addition to developing the ES, other software has been written to assist the design process. The section properties software has been introduced to improve the speed and consistency of calculating the section properties. A method of selecting or comparing the most appropriate section for a given specification is also implemented. Simple loading facilities have been introduced to guide the designer as to the loading capacity of the section. This research has concluded that the application of an ES is beneficial and with the activator approach, automated designing can be achieved. On average a complex drawing can be displayed on the screen in about 100 seconds, where over 95% of the initial section design time for repetitive or similar profile can be saved.

METEX: An expert system for metamorphic petrography

Classification of metamorphic rocks is normally carried out using a poorly defined, subjective classification scheme making this an area in which many undergraduate geologists experience difficulties. An expert system to assist in such classification is presented which is capable of classifying rocks and also giving further details about a particular rock type. A mixed knowledge representation is used with frame, semantic and production rule systems available. Classification in the domain requires that different facets of a rock be classified. To implement this, rocks are represented by 'context' frames with slots representing each facet. Slots are satisfied by calling a pre-defined ruleset to carry out the necessary inference. The inference is handled by an interpreter which uses a dependency graph representation for the propagation of evidence. Uncertainty is handled by the system using a combination of the MYCIN certainty factor system and the Dempster-Shafer range mechanism. This allows for positive and negative reasoning, with rules capable of representing necessity and sufficiency of evidence, whilst also allowing the implementation of an alpha-beta pruning algorithm to guide question selection during inference. The system also utilizes a semantic net type structure to allow the expert to encode simple relationships between terms enabling rules to be written with a sensible level of abstraction. Using frames to represent rock types where subclassification is possible allows the knowledge base to be built in a modular fashion with subclassification frames only defined once the higher level of classification is functioning. Rulesets can similarly be added in modular fashion with the individual rules being essentially declarative allowing for simple updating and maintenance. The knowledge base so far developed for metamorphic classification serves to demonstrate the performance of the interpreter design whilst also moving some way towards providing a useful assistant to the non-expert metamorphic petrologist. The system demonstrates the possibilities for a fully developed knowledge base to handle the classification of igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic rocks. The current knowledge base and interpreter have been evaluated by potential users and experts. The results of the evaluation show that the system performs to an acceptable level and should be of use as a tool for both undergraduates and researchers from outside the metamorphic petrography field. .

Fish farm effluent control and the development of an expert system

In recent years, freshwater fish farmers have come under increasing pressure from the Water Authorities to control the quality of their farm effluents. This project aimed to investigate methods of treating aquacultural effluent in an efficient and cost-effective manner, and to incorporate the knowledge gained into an Expert System which could then be used in an advice service to farmers. From the results of this research it was established that sedimentation and the use of low pollution diets are the only cost effective methods of controlling the quality of fish farm effluents. Settlement has been extensively investigated and it was found that the removal of suspended solids in a settlement pond is only likely to be effective if the inlet solids concentration is in excess of 8 mg/litre. The probability of good settlement can be enhanced by keeping the ratio of length/retention time (a form of mean fluid velocity) below 4.0 metres/minute. The removal of BOD requires inlet solids concentrations in excess of 20 mg/litre to be effective, and this is seldom attained on commercial fish farms. Settlement, generally, does not remove appreciable quantities of ammonia from effluents, but algae can absorb ammonia by nutrient uptake under certain conditions. The use of low pollution, high performance diets gives pollutant yields which are low when compared with published figures obtained by many previous workers. Two Expert Systems were constructed, both of which diagnose possible causes of poor effluent quality on fish farms and suggest solutions. The first system uses knowledge gained from a literature review and the second employs the knowledge obtained from this project's experimental work. Consent details for over 100 fish farms were obtained from the public registers kept by the Water Authorities. Large variations in policy from one Authority to the next were found. These data have been compiled in a computer file for ease of comparison.

The development of an expert system for the identification anodic coating process defects as a contribution to the dissemination of anodizing technology

Initially this thesis examines the various mechanisms by which technology is acquired within anodizing plants. In so doing the history of the evolution of anodizing technology is recorded, with particular reference to the growth of major markets and to the contribution of the marketing efforts of the aluminium industry. The business economics of various types of anodizing plants are analyzed. Consideration is also given to the impact of developments in anodizing technology on production economics and market growth. The economic costs associated with work rejected for process defects are considered. Recent changes in the industry have created conditions whereby information technology has a potentially important role to play in retaining existing knowledge. One such contribution is exemplified by the expert system which has been developed for the identification of anodizing process defects. Instead of using a "rule-based" expert system, a commercial neural networks program has been adapted for the task. The advantages of neural networks over 'rule-based' systems is that they are better suited to production problems, since the actual conditions prevailing when the defect was produced are often not known with certainty. In using the expert system, the user first identifies the process stage at which the defect probably occurred and is then directed to a file enabling the actual defects to be identified. After making this identification, the user can consult a database which gives a more detailed description of the defect, advises on remedial action and provides a bibliography of papers relating to the defect. The database uses a proprietary hypertext program, which also provides rapid cross-referencing to similar types of defect. Additionally, a graphics file can be accessed which (where appropriate) will display a graphic of the defect on screen. A total of 117 defects are included, together with 221 literature references, supplemented by 48 cross-reference hyperlinks. The main text of the thesis contains 179 literature references. (DX186565)

An analysis of users' reactions to an expert advisory system

Ignorance of user factors can be seen as one of the nontechnical issues contributing to expert system failure. An expert advisory system is built for nonexpert users; the users' acceptance is a very important factor for its successful implementation. If an expert advisory system satisfactorily represents the expertise in the domain, there still remains the question: "Will the end-users use the system?" This paper aims to address users' issues by analysing their reactions towards an expert advisory system called ADGAME, developed to help its users make better decisions in playing a competitive business game. Two experiments with ADGAME have been carried out. The research results show that, when the use of the expert advisory system is optional, there is considerable reluctance to use it, particularly amongst the "worst" potential users. Users also doubt the potential benefits in terms of improved learning and confidence in decisions made. Strangely, the one positive expectation that users had, that the system would save them time, proved not to be the case in practice; ADGAME appears to improve the users' effectiveness rather than their efficiency. © 1995.

Expert systems for vendor selection

The survival of organisations, especially SMEs, depends, to the greatest extent, on those who supply them with the required material input. This is because if the supplier fails to deliver the right materials at the right time and place, and at the right price, then the recipient organisation is bound to fail in its obligations to satisfy the needs of its customers, and to stay in business. Hence, the task of choosing a supplier(s) from a list of vendors, that an organisation will trust with its very existence, is not an easy one. This project investigated how purchasing personnel in organisations solve the problem of vendor selection. The investigation went further to ascertain whether an Expert Systems model could be developed and used as a plausible solution to the problem. An extensive literature review indicated that very scanty research has been conducted in the area of Expert Systems for Vendor Selection, whereas many research theories in expert systems and in purchasing and supply management chain, respectively, had been reported. A survey questionnaire was designed and circulated to people in the industries who actually perform the vendor selection tasks. Analysis of the collected data confirmed the various factors which are considered during the selection process, and established the order in which those factors are ranked. Five of the factors, namely, Production Methods Used, Vendors Financial Background, Manufacturing Capacity, Size of Vendor Organisations, and Suppliers Position in the Industry; appeared to have similar patterns in the way organisations ranked them. These patterns suggested that the bigger the organisation, the more importantly they regarded the above factors. Further investigations revealed that respondents agreed that the most important factors were: Product Quality, Product Price and Delivery Date. The most apparent pattern was observed for the Vendors Financial Background. This generated curiosity which led to the design and development of a prototype expert system for assessing the financial profile of a potential supplier(s). This prototype was called ESfNS. It determines whether a prospective supplier(s) has good financial background or not. ESNS was tested by the potential users who then confirmed that expert systems have great prospects and commercial viability in the domain for solving vendor selection problems.

Expert systems for fault analysis

The initial aim of this research was to investigate the application of expert Systems, or Knowledge Base Systems technology to the automated synthesis of Hazard and Operability Studies. Due to the generic nature of Fault Analysis problems and the way in which Knowledge Base Systems work, this goal has evolved into a consideration of automated support for Fault Analysis in general, covering HAZOP, Fault Tree Analysis, FMEA and Fault Diagnosis in the Process Industries. This thesis described a proposed architecture for such an Expert System. The purpose of the System is to produce a descriptive model of faults and fault propagation from a description of the physical structure of the plant. From these descriptive models, the desired Fault Analysis may be produced. The way in which this is done reflects the complexity of the problem which, in principle, encompasses the whole of the discipline of Process Engineering. An attempt is made to incorporate the perceived method that an expert uses to solve the problem; keywords, heuristics and guidelines from techniques such as HAZOP and Fault Tree Synthesis are used. In a truly Expert System, the performance of the system is strongly dependent on the high quality of the knowledge that is incorporated. This expert knowledge takes the form of heuristics or rules of thumb which are used in problem solving. This research has shown that, for the application of fault analysis heuristics, it is necessary to have a representation of the details of fault propagation within a process. This helps to ensure the robustness of the system - a gradual rather than abrupt degradation at the boundaries of the domain knowledge.

The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

Computer integrated system for form-roll manufacture

Computer integrated manufacture has brought about great advances in manufacturing technology and its recognition is world wide. Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections, and in particular the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is but one such area where computer integrated manufacture can make a positive contribution. The work reported in this thesis, concerned with the development of an integrated manufacturing system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls, was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A suit of computer programs, written in FORTRAN 77, have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture including cost estimation and stock control aids. The first phase of the development programme dealt with the establishment of CAD facilities for form-roll design, comprising the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, the roll design and the interactive roll editor program. Concerning the CAM facilities, dealt with in the second phase, an expert system roll machining processor and a general post-processor have been developed for considering the roll geometry and automatically generating NC tape programs for any required CNC lathe system. These programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated manufacturing software system, on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of the integrated system has been found beneficial in all aspects of form-roll design and manufacture. Design and manufacturing lead times have been reduced by several weeks, quality has improved considerably and productivity has increased. The work has also demonstrated the promising nature of the expert systems approach to computer integrated manufacture.

The application of knowledge based expert systems to mechanical engineering design

Investigation of the different approaches used by Expert Systems researchers to solve problems in the domain of Mechanical Design and Expert Systems was carried out. The techniques used for conventional formal logic programming were compared with those used when applying Expert Systems concepts. A literature survey of design processes was also conducted with a view to adopting a suitable model of the design process. A model, comprising a variation on two established ones, was developed and applied to a problem within what are described as class 3 design tasks. The research explored the application of these concepts to Mechanical Engineering Design problems and their implementation on a microcomputer using an Expert System building tool. It was necessary to explore the use of Expert Systems in this manner so as to bridge the gap between their use as a control structure and for detailed analytical design. The former application is well researched into and this thesis discusses the latter. Some Expert System building tools available to the author at the beginning of his work were evaluated specifically for their suitability for Mechanical Engineering design problems. Microsynics was found to be the most suitable on which to implement a design problem because of its simple but powerful Semantic Net Knowledge Representation structure and the ability to use other types of representation schemes. Two major implementations were carried out. The first involved a design program for a Helical compression spring and the second a gearpair system design. Two concepts were proposed in the thesis for the modelling and implementation of design systems involving many equations. The method proposed enables equation manipulation and analysis using a combination of frames, semantic nets and production rules. The use of semantic nets for purposes other than for psychology and natural language interpretation, is quite new and represents one of the major contributions to knowledge by the author. The development of a purpose built shell program for this type of design problems was recommended as an extension of the research. Microsynics may usefully be used as a platform for this development.

The application of expert systems techniques in the design of durable concrete

This thesis describes work done exploring the application of expert system techniques to the domain of designing durable concrete. The nature of concrete durability design is described and some problems from the domain are discussed. Some related work on expert systems in concrete durability are described. Various implementation languages are considered - PROLOG and OPS5, and rejected in favour of a shell - CRYSTAL3 (later CRYSTAL4). Criteria for useful expert system shells in the domain are discussed. CRYSTAL4 is evaluated in the light of these criteria. Modules in various sub-domains (mix-design, sulphate attack, steel-corrosion and alkali aggregate reaction) are developed and organised under a BLACKBOARD system (called DEX). Extensions to the CRYSTAL4 modules are considered for different knowledge representations. These include LOTUS123 spreadsheets implementing models incorporating some of the mathematical knowledge in the domain. Design databases are used to represent tabular design knowledge. Hypertext representations of the original building standards texts are proposed as a tool for providing a well structured and extensive justification/help facility. A standardised approach to module development is proposed using hypertext development as a structured basis for expert systems development. Some areas of deficient domain knowledge are highlighted particularly in the use of data from mathematical models and in gaps and inconsistencies in the original knowledge source Digests.