Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Phakometric measurement of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment: evaluation of method with physical model eyes

Ophthalmophakometric measurements of ocular surface radius of curvature and alignment were evaluated on physical model eyes encompassing a wide range of human ocular dimensions. The results indicated that defocus errors arising from imperfections in the ophthalmophakometer camera telecentricity and light source collimation were smaller than experimental errors. Reasonable estimates emerged for anterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.02–0.10 mm; precision 0.05–0.09 mm), posterior lens surface radius of curvature (accuracy: 0.10–0.55 mm; precision 0.06–0.20 mm), eye rotation (accuracy: 0.00–0.32°; precision 0.06–0.25°), lens tilt (accuracy: 0.00–0.33°; precision 0.05–0.98°) and lens decentration (accuracy: 0.00–0.07 mm; precision 0.00–0.07 mm).

The development of chemical exposure limits for the workplace

The thesis examines and explains the development of occupational exposure limits (OELs) as a means of preventing work related disease and ill health. The research focuses on the USA and UK and sets the work within a certain historical and social context. A subsidiary aim of the thesis is to identify any short comings in OELs and the methods by which they are set and suggest alternatives. The research framework uses Thomas Kuhn's idea of science progressing by means of paradigms which he describes at one point, `lq ... universally recognised scientific achievements that for a time provide model problems and solutions to a community of practitioners. KUHN (1970). Once learned individuals in the community, `lq ... are committed to the same rules and standards for scientific practice. Ibid. Kuhn's ideas are adapted by combining them with a view of industrial hygiene as an applied science-based profession having many of the qualities of non-scientific professions. The great advantage of this approach to OELs is that it keeps the analysis grounded in the behaviour and priorities of the groups which have forged, propounded, used, benefited from, and defended, them. The development and use of OELs on a larger scale is shown to be connected to the growth of a new profession in the USA; industrial hygiene, with the assistance of another new profession; industrial toxicology. The origins of these professions, particularly industrial hygiene, are traced. By examining the growth of the professions and the writings of key individuals it is possible to show how technical, economic and social factors became embedded in the OEL paradigm which industrial hygienists and toxicologists forged. The origin, mission and needs of these professions and their clients made such influences almost inevitable. The use of the OEL paradigm in practice is examined by an analysis of the process of the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists, Threshold Limit Value (ACGIH, TLV) Committee via the Minutes from 1962-1984. A similar approach is taken with the development of OELs in the UK. Although the form and definition of TLVs has encouraged the belief that they are health-based OELs the conclusion is that they, and most other OELs, are, and always have been, reasonably practicable limits: the degree of risk posed by a substance is weighed against the feasibility and cost of controlling exposure to that substance. The confusion over the status of TLVs and other OELs is seen to be a confusion at the heart of the OEL paradigm and the historical perspective explains why this should be. The paradigm has prevented the creation of truly health-based and, conversely, truly reasonably practicable OELs. In the final part of the thesis the analysis of the development of OELs is set in a contemporary context and a proposal for a two-stage, two-committee procedure for producing sets of OELs is put forward. This approach is set within an alternative OEL paradigm. The advantages, benefits and likely obstacles to these proposals are discussed.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

A method of fundamental solutions for two-dimensional heat conduction

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to heat conduction in two-dimensional bodies, where the thermal diffusivity is piecewise constant. We extend the MFS proposed in Johansson and Lesnic [A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction, Eng. Anal. Bound. Elem. 32 (2008), pp. 697–703] for one-dimensional heat conduction with the sources placed outside the space domain of interest, to the two-dimensional setting. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate results can be obtained efficiently with small computational cost.

Numerical approximation of the one-dimensional inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem using a method of fundamental solutions

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the one-dimensional parabolic inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem, where boundary data and the initial condition are to be determined from the Cauchy data prescribed on a given moving interface. In [B.T. Johansson, D. Lesnic, and T. Reeve, A method of fundamental solutions for the one-dimensional inverse Stefan Problem, Appl. Math Model. 35 (2011), pp. 4367–4378], the inverse Stefan problem was considered, where only the boundary data is to be reconstructed on the fixed boundary. We extend the MFS proposed in Johansson et al. (2011) and show that the initial condition can also be simultaneously recovered, i.e. the MFS is appropriate for the inverse Cauchy-Stefan problem. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate results can be efficiently obtained with small computational cost.

A method of fundamental solutions for radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problems

We propose and investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problem (BHCP) in a solid or hollow cylinder. In the BHCP, the initial temperature is to be determined from the temperature measurements at a later time. This is an inverse and ill-posed problem, and we employ and generalize the MFS regularization approach [B.T. Johansson and D. Lesnic, A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction, Eng. Anal. Boundary Elements 32 (2008), pp. 697–703] for the time-dependent heat equation to obtain a stable and accurate numerical approximation with small computational cost.

A method of fundamental solutions for theaxisymmetric backward heat equation

We propose and investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the radially symmetric and axisymmetric backward heat conduction problem (BHCP) in a solid or hollow cylinder. In the BHCP, the initial temperature is to be determined from the temperature measurements at a later time. This is an inverse and ill-posed problem, and we employ and generalize the MFS regularization approach [B.T. Johansson and D. Lesnic, A method of fundamental solutions for transient heat conduction, Eng. Anal. Boundary Elements 32 (2008), pp. 697–703] for the time-dependent heat equation to obtain a stable and accurate numerical approximation with small computational cost.

Pyrolysis and combustion of municipal solid wastes:evaluation of synergistic effects using TGA-MS

A thermogravimetric methodology was developed to investigate and semi-quantify the extent of synergistic effects during pyrolysis and combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW). Results from TGA-MS were used to compare the pyrolysis and combustion characteristics of single municipal solid waste components (polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), branches (BR), leaves (LV), grass (GR), packaging paper (PK), hygienic paper (HP) and cardboard (CB)) and a mixture (MX) of PP, BR and CB. Samples were heated under dynamic conditions at 20°C/min from 25°C to 1000°C with the continuous record of their main evolved fragments. Synergistic effects were evaluated by comparing experimental and calculated weight losses and relative areas of MS peaks. Pyrolysis of the mixture happened in two stages, with the release of H2, CH4, H2O, CO and CO2 between 200 and 415°C and the release of CH4, CxHy, CO and CO2 between 415 and 525°C. Negative synergistic effect in the 1st stage was attributed to the presence of PP where the release of hydrocarbons and CO2 from BR and CB was inhibited, whereas positive synergistic effects were observed during the 2nd degradation stage. In a second part of the study, synergistic effects were related to the dependency of the effective activation energy (Eα) versus the conversion (α). Higher Eαs were obtained for MX during its 1st stage of pyrolysis and lower Eαs for the 2nd stage when compared to the individual components. On the other hand, mostly positive synergistic effects were observed during the combustion of the same mixture, for which lower Eαs were recorded.