An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

The influence of cutting tool geometry upon aspects of chip flow and tool wear:a theoretical, three dimensional examination of the cutting geometry and the shape of the twist drill

This work is undertaken in the attempt to understand the processes at work at the cutting edge of the twist drill. Extensive drill life testing performed by the University has reinforced a survey of previously published information. This work demonstrated that there are two specific aspects of drilling which have not previously been explained comprehensively. The first concerns the interrelating of process data between differing drilling situations, There is no method currently available which allows the cutting geometry of drilling to be defined numerically so that such comparisons, where made, are purely subjective. Section one examines this problem by taking as an example a 4.5mm drill suitable for use with aluminium. This drill is examined using a prototype solid modelling program to explore how the required numerical information may be generated. The second aspect is the analysis of drill stiffness. What aspects of drill stiffness provide the very great difference in performance between short flute length, medium flute length and long flute length drills? These differences exist between drills of identical point geometry and the practical superiority of short drills has been known to shop floor drilling operatives since drilling was first introduced. This problem has been dismissed repeatedly as over complicated but section two provides a first approximation and shows that at least for smaller drills of 4. 5mm the effects are highly significant. Once the cutting action of the twist drill is defined geometrically there is a huge body of machinability data that becomes applicable to the drilling process. Work remains to interpret the very high inclination angles of the drill cutting process in terms of cutting forces and tool wear but aspects of drill design may already be looked at in new ways with the prospect of a more analytical approach rather than the present mix of experience and trial and error. Other problems are specific to the twist drill, such as the behaviour of the chips in the flute. It is now possible to predict the initial direction of chip flow leaving the drill cutting edge. For the future the parameters of further chip behaviour may also be explored within this geometric model.

A comparison between static and kinetic visual attention as a means of detecting age-related deterioration of the visual system and driving performance

A critical review of previous research revealed that visual attention tests, such as the Useful Field of View (UFOV) test, provided the best means of detecting age-related changes to the visual system that could potentially increase crash risk. However, the question was raised as to whether the UFOV, which was regarded as a static visual attention test, could be improved by inclusion of kinetic targets that more closely represent the driving task. A computer program was written to provide more information about the derivation of UFOV test scores. Although this investigation succeeded in providing new information, some of the commercially protected UFOV test procedures still remain unknown. Two kinetic visual attention tests (DRTS1 and 2), developed at Aston University to investigate inclusion of kinetic targets in visual attention tests, were introduced. The UFOV was found to be more repeatable than either of the kinetic visual attention tests and learning effects or age did not influence these findings. Determinants of static and kinetic visual attention were explored. Increasing target eccentricity led to reduced performance on the UFOV and DRTS1 tests. The DRTS2 was not affected by eccentricity but this may have been due to the style of presentation of its targets. This might also have explained why only the DRTS2 showed laterality effects (i.e. better performance to targets presented on the left hand side of the road). Radial location, explored using the UFOV test, showed that subjects responded best to targets positioned to the horizontal meridian. Distraction had opposite effects on static and kinetic visual attention. While UFOV test performance declined with distraction, DRTS1 performance increased. Previous research had shown that this striking difference was to be expected. Whereas the detection of static targets is attenuated in the presence of distracting stimuli, distracting stimuli that move in a structured flow field enhances the detection of moving targets. Subjects reacted more slowly to kinetic compared to static targets, longitudinal motion compared to angular motion and to increased self-motion. However, the effects of longitudinal motion, angular motion, self-motion and even target eccentricity were caused by target edge speed variations arising because of optic flow field effects. The UFOV test was more able to detect age-related changes to the visual system than were either of the kinetic visual attention tests. The driving samples investigated were too limited to draw firm conclusions. Nevertheless, the results presented showed that neither the DRTS2 nor the UFOV tests were powerful tools for the identification of drivers prone to crashes or poor driving performance.

A randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia:the ECLIPSE trial

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about initial medical treatment is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (Mirena(®), Bayer) compared with usual medical treatment, with exploration of women's perspectives on treatment. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with an economic evaluation and a longitudinal qualitative study. SETTING: Women who presented in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 571 women with HMB. A purposeful sample of 27 women who were randomised or ineligible owing to treatment preference participated in semistructured face-to-face interviews around 2 and 12 months after commencing treatment. INTERVENTIONS: LNG-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined oestrogen-progestogen or progesterone alone). Women could subsequently swap or cease their allocated treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period and then again at 5 years. Secondary outcomes included general quality of life (QoL), sexual activity, surgical intervention and safety. Data were analysed using iterative constant comparison. A state transition model-based cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside the randomised trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were derived from the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (SF-6D). The intention-to-treat analyses were reported as cost per QALY gained. Uncertainty was explored by conducting both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The MMAS total scores improved significantly in both groups at all time points, but were significantly greater for the LNG-IUS than for usual treatment [mean difference over 2 years was 13.4 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.9 to 16.9 points; p < 0.001]. However, this difference between groups was reduced and no longer significant by 5 years (mean difference in scores 3.9 points, 95% CI -0.6 to 8.3 points; p = 0.09). By 5 years, only 47% of women had a LNG-IUS in place and 15% were still taking usual medical treatment. Five-year surgery rates were low, at 20%, and were similar, irrespective of initial treatments. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Using the EQ-5D, at 2 years, the relative cost-effectiveness of the LNG-IUS compared with usual medical treatment was £1600 per QALY, which by 5 years was reduced to £114 per QALY. Using the SF-6D, usual medical treatment dominates the LNG-IUS. The qualitative findings show that women's experiences and expectations of medical treatments for HMB vary considerably and change over time. Women had high expectations of a prompt effect from medical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The LNG-IUS, compared with usual medical therapies, resulted in greater improvement over 2 years in women's assessments of the effect of HMB on their daily routine, including work, social and family life, and psychological and physical well-being. At 5 years, the differences were no longer significant. A similar low proportion of women required surgical intervention in both groups. The LNG-IUS is cost-effective in both the short and medium term, using the method generally recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Using the alternative measures to value QoL will have a considerable impact on cost-effectiveness decisions. It will be important to explore the clinical and health-care trajectories of the ECLIPSE (clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia) trial participants to 10 years, by which time half of the cohort will have reached menopause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86566246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.