An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

Technical entrepreneurship in the UK:an examination of the relationship between the previous occupational background of the technical entrepreneur and the management of the small technology-based venture

With the growing appreciation of the contribution of small technology-based ventures to a healthy economy, an analysis of the individual who initiates and manages such ventures - the technical entrepreneur - is highly desirable, predominantly because of the influence of such an individual on the management and future strategy of the venture. An examination of recent research has indicated that a study of the previous experience and expertise of the entrepreneur, gained in previous occupations, may be highly relevant in determining the possible success of a new venture. This is particularly true where the specific expertise of the entrepreneur forms the main strategic advantage of the business, as in the case of small technology-based firms. Despite this, there has been very little research which has attempted to examine the relationship between the previous occupational background of the technical entrepreneur, and the management of the small technology-based firm. This thesis will examine this relationship, as well as providing an original contribution to the study of technical entrepreneurship in the UK. Consequently, the exploratory nature of the research prompted an inductive qualitative approach being adopted for the thesis. Through a two stage, multiple-site research approach, an examination was made of technical entrepreneurs heading award-winning technology-based small firms in the UK. The main research questions focused on management within the firm, the novelty and origin of the technology adopted, and the personal characteristics of the entrepreneur under study. The results of this study led to the creation of a specific typology for technical entrepreneurs, based on the individual's role in the development of technology within his previous occupation.

The influence of cutting tool geometry upon aspects of chip flow and tool wear:a theoretical, three dimensional examination of the cutting geometry and the shape of the twist drill

This work is undertaken in the attempt to understand the processes at work at the cutting edge of the twist drill. Extensive drill life testing performed by the University has reinforced a survey of previously published information. This work demonstrated that there are two specific aspects of drilling which have not previously been explained comprehensively. The first concerns the interrelating of process data between differing drilling situations, There is no method currently available which allows the cutting geometry of drilling to be defined numerically so that such comparisons, where made, are purely subjective. Section one examines this problem by taking as an example a 4.5mm drill suitable for use with aluminium. This drill is examined using a prototype solid modelling program to explore how the required numerical information may be generated. The second aspect is the analysis of drill stiffness. What aspects of drill stiffness provide the very great difference in performance between short flute length, medium flute length and long flute length drills? These differences exist between drills of identical point geometry and the practical superiority of short drills has been known to shop floor drilling operatives since drilling was first introduced. This problem has been dismissed repeatedly as over complicated but section two provides a first approximation and shows that at least for smaller drills of 4. 5mm the effects are highly significant. Once the cutting action of the twist drill is defined geometrically there is a huge body of machinability data that becomes applicable to the drilling process. Work remains to interpret the very high inclination angles of the drill cutting process in terms of cutting forces and tool wear but aspects of drill design may already be looked at in new ways with the prospect of a more analytical approach rather than the present mix of experience and trial and error. Other problems are specific to the twist drill, such as the behaviour of the chips in the flute. It is now possible to predict the initial direction of chip flow leaving the drill cutting edge. For the future the parameters of further chip behaviour may also be explored within this geometric model.

The slope of the psychometric function and non-stationarity of thresholds in spatiotemporal contrast vision

The slope of the two-interval, forced-choice psychometric function (e.g. the Weibull parameter, ß) provides valuable information about the relationship between contrast sensitivity and signal strength. However, little is known about how or whether ß varies with stimulus parameters such as spatiotemporal frequency and stimulus size and shape. A second unresolved issue concerns the best way to estimate the slope of the psychometric function. For example, if an observer is non-stationary (e.g. their threshold drifts between experimental sessions), ß will be underestimated if curve fitting is performed after collapsing the data across experimental sessions. We measured psychometric functions for 2 experienced observers for 14 different spatiotemporal configurations of pulsed or flickering grating patches and bars on each of 8 days. We found ß ˜ 3 to be fairly constant across almost all conditions, consistent with a fixed nonlinear contrast transducer and/or a constant level of intrinsic stimulus uncertainty (e.g. a square law transducer and a low level of intrinsic uncertainty). Our analysis showed that estimating a single ß from results averaged over several experimental sessions was slightly more accurate than averaging multiple estimates from several experimental sessions. However, the small levels of non-stationarity (SD ˜ 0.8 dB) meant that the difference between the estimates was, in practice, negligible.

Entrepreneurial profile of the UK in the light of the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index

In this research summary, we provide a novel look into the entrepreneurial profile of the UK in an international context. We use a new method – the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index GEDI – to identify the entrepreneurial strengths and weaknesses of the UK economy, as well as to identify potential bottlenecks that hold back the performance of the UK relative to other advanced economies. We perform a Penalty for Bottleneck analysis to identify the bottlenecks in the UK's entrepreneurial profile. We also explore optimal resource allocation for UK's policy for National Systems of Entrepreneurship.

Cognitive systems associated with the hippocampus of the human brain and their role in behaviour and neurodegenerative disease

Cognitive systems research involves the synthesis of ideas from natural and artificial systems in the analysis, understanding, and design of all intelligent systems. This chapter discusses the cognitive systems associated with the hippocampus (HC) of the human brain and their possible role in behaviour and neurodegenerative disease. The hippocampus (HC) is concerned with the analysis of highly abstract data derived from all sensory systems but its specific role remains controversial. Hence, there have been three major theories concerning its function, viz., the memory theory, the spatial theory, and the behavioral inhibition theory. The memory theory has its origin in the surgical destruction of the HC, which results in severe anterograde and partial retrograde amnesia. The spatial theory has its origin in the observation that neurons in the HC of animals show activity related to their location within the environment. By contrast, the behavioral inhibition theory suggests that the HC acts as a ‘comparator’, i.e., it compares current sensory events with expected or predicted events. If a set of expectations continues to be verified then no alteration of behavior occurs. If, however, a ‘mismatch’ is detected then the HC intervenes by initiating appropriate action by active inhibition of current motor programs and initiation of new data gathering. Understanding the cognitive systems of the hippocampus in humans may aid in the design of intelligent systems involved in spatial mapping, memory, and decision making. In addition, this information may lead to a greater understanding of the course of clinical dementia in the various neurodegenerative diseases in which there is significant damage to the HC.

The single-phase induction motor:a critical appraisal of the rotating-field and cross-field theories with particular reference to skin effect

The purpose of this thesis is twofold: to examine the validity of the rotating-field and cross-field theories of the single-phase induction motor when applied to a cage rotor machine; and to examine the extent to which skin effect is likely to modify the characteristics of a cage rotor machine. A mathematical analysis is presented for a single-phase induction motor in which the rotor parameters are modified by skin effect. Although this is based on the usual type of ideal machine, a new form of model rotor allows approximations for skin effect phenomena to be included as an integral part of the analysis. Performance equations appropriate to the rotating-field and cross-field theories are deduced, and the corresponding explanations for the steady-state mode of operation are critically examined. The evaluation of the winding currents and developed torque is simplified by the introduction of new dimensionless factors which are functions of the resistance/reactance ratios of the rotor and the speed. Tables of the factors are included for selected numerical values of the parameter ratios, and these are used to deduce typical operating characteristics for both cage and wound rotor machines. It is shown that a qualitative explanation of the mode of operation of a cage rotor machine is obtained from either theory; but the operating characteristics must be deduced from the performance equations of the rotating-field theory, because of the restrictions on the values of the rotor parameters imposed by skin effect.

Improving the description of the retinal vasculature and patient history taking for monitoring systemic hypertension

Systemic hypertension is an important public health concern. If optometrists are to perform a more active role in the detection and monitoring of high blood pressure (BP), there is a need to improve the consistency of describing the retinal vasculature and to assess patient's ability to correctly report the diagnosis of hypertension, its control and medication. One hundred and one patients aged >40 years were dilated and had fundus photography performed. BP was measured and a self-reported history of general health and current medication was compared with the records of their general practitioner (GP). The status of the retinal vasculature was quantified using a numeric scale by five clinicians and this was compared to the same evaluation performed with the aid of a basic pictorial grading scale. Image analysis was used to objectively measure the artery-to-vein (A/V) ratio and arterial reflex. Arteriolar tortuosity and calibre changes were found to be the most sensitive retinal signs of high BP. Using the grading scale to describe the retinal vasculature significantly improved inter- and intra-observer repeatability. Almost half the patients examined were on medication for high BP or cardiovascular disease. Patients' ability to give their complete medical history was poor, as was their ability to recall what medication they had been prescribed. GPs indicated it was useful to receive details of their patient's BP when it was >140/90 mmHg. The use of improved description of the retinal vasculature and stronger links between optometrists and GPs may enhance future patient care. © 2001 The College of Optometrists. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A critical evaluation of the volume, relevance and quality of evidence submitted by the tobacco industry to oppose standardised packaging of tobacco products

OBJECTIVES: To examine the volume, relevance and quality of transnational tobacco corporations' (TTCs) evidence that standardised packaging of tobacco products 'won't work', following the UK government's decision to 'wait and see' until further evidence is available. DESIGN: Content analysis. SETTING: We analysed the evidence cited in submissions by the UK's four largest TTCs to the UK Department of Health consultation on standardised packaging in 2012. OUTCOME MEASURES: The volume, relevance (subject matter) and quality (as measured by independence from industry and peer-review) of evidence cited by TTCs was compared with evidence from a systematic review of standardised packaging . Fisher's exact test was used to assess differences in the quality of TTC and systematic review evidence. 100% of the data were second-coded to validate the findings: 94.7% intercoder reliability; all differences were resolved. RESULTS: 77/143 pieces of TTC-cited evidence were used to promote their claim that standardised packaging 'won't work'. Of these, just 17/77 addressed standardised packaging: 14 were industry connected and none were published in peer-reviewed journals. Comparison of TTC and systematic review evidence on standardised packaging showed that the industry evidence was of significantly lower quality in terms of tobacco industry connections and peer-review (p<0.0001). The most relevant TTC evidence (on standardised packaging or packaging generally, n=26) was of significantly lower quality (p<0.0001) than the least relevant (on other topics, n=51). Across the dataset, TTC-connected evidence was significantly less likely to be published in a peer-reviewed journal (p=0.0045). CONCLUSIONS: With few exceptions, evidence cited by TTCs to promote their claim that standardised packaging 'won't work' lacks either policy relevance or key indicators of quality. Policymakers could use these three criteria-subject matter, independence and peer-review status-to critically assess evidence submitted to them by corporate interests via Better Regulation processes.

Contesting human rights through institutional reform:a case study of the reform of the UK Equality and Human Rights Commission

This article presents a case study of the recent reform of the United Kingdom Equalities and Human Rights Commission, to address a critical gap in the literature on national human rights institutions (NHRIs) concerning the power of governments to exert control over these institutions through reform processes. Through this analysis, the article demonstrates, first, that NHRIs are affected by contextual factors not only related to the popularity of the human rights agenda but also to wider policy agendas which impact on their status and functions; and second, that attempts by government to exert more administrative control can be significantly problematic for the operational independence of NHRIs.

A randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia:the ECLIPSE trial

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about initial medical treatment is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (Mirena(®), Bayer) compared with usual medical treatment, with exploration of women's perspectives on treatment. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with an economic evaluation and a longitudinal qualitative study. SETTING: Women who presented in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 571 women with HMB. A purposeful sample of 27 women who were randomised or ineligible owing to treatment preference participated in semistructured face-to-face interviews around 2 and 12 months after commencing treatment. INTERVENTIONS: LNG-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined oestrogen-progestogen or progesterone alone). Women could subsequently swap or cease their allocated treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period and then again at 5 years. Secondary outcomes included general quality of life (QoL), sexual activity, surgical intervention and safety. Data were analysed using iterative constant comparison. A state transition model-based cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside the randomised trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were derived from the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (SF-6D). The intention-to-treat analyses were reported as cost per QALY gained. Uncertainty was explored by conducting both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The MMAS total scores improved significantly in both groups at all time points, but were significantly greater for the LNG-IUS than for usual treatment [mean difference over 2 years was 13.4 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.9 to 16.9 points; p < 0.001]. However, this difference between groups was reduced and no longer significant by 5 years (mean difference in scores 3.9 points, 95% CI -0.6 to 8.3 points; p = 0.09). By 5 years, only 47% of women had a LNG-IUS in place and 15% were still taking usual medical treatment. Five-year surgery rates were low, at 20%, and were similar, irrespective of initial treatments. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Using the EQ-5D, at 2 years, the relative cost-effectiveness of the LNG-IUS compared with usual medical treatment was £1600 per QALY, which by 5 years was reduced to £114 per QALY. Using the SF-6D, usual medical treatment dominates the LNG-IUS. The qualitative findings show that women's experiences and expectations of medical treatments for HMB vary considerably and change over time. Women had high expectations of a prompt effect from medical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The LNG-IUS, compared with usual medical therapies, resulted in greater improvement over 2 years in women's assessments of the effect of HMB on their daily routine, including work, social and family life, and psychological and physical well-being. At 5 years, the differences were no longer significant. A similar low proportion of women required surgical intervention in both groups. The LNG-IUS is cost-effective in both the short and medium term, using the method generally recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Using the alternative measures to value QoL will have a considerable impact on cost-effectiveness decisions. It will be important to explore the clinical and health-care trajectories of the ECLIPSE (clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia) trial participants to 10 years, by which time half of the cohort will have reached menopause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86566246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

In the name of the father, son, and grandson:succession patterns and the Kim dynasty

This paper seeks to understand North Korea’s Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un’s hereditary transition by proposing a comparative analysis of several dictatorship families. The paper utilizes totalitarian successions in Nicaragua with García and Debayle, in Haiti with the Duvalier family, in Syria with the al-Assads, in Azerbaijan with the Aliyevs, in Congo with the Kabilas in order to draw parallels and difference with the North Korea. Eventually, North Korea’s control over information and its management of myths are highlighted as factors that have enabled the country’s hereditary transition, though new patterns of domestic governance might lead to a different political environment over the Korean peninsula.

The state of the nations:current and future developments in technology enhanced learning

Right across Europe technology is playing a vital part in enhancing learning for an increasingly diverse population of learners. Learning is increasingly flexible, social and mobile and supported by high quality multi-media resources. Institutional VLEs are seeing a shift towards open source products and these core systems are supplemented by a range of social and collaborative learning tools based on web 2.0 technologies. Learners undertaking field studies and those in the workplace are coming to expect that these off-campus experiences will also be technology-rich whether supported by institutional or user-owned devices. As well as keeping European businesses competitive, learning is seen as a means of increasing social mobility and supporting an agenda of social justice. For a number of years the EUNIS E-Learning Task Force (ELTF) has conducted snapshot surveys of e-learning across member institutions, collected case studies of good practice in e-learning see (Hayes, et al., 2009) in references, supported a group looking at the future of e-learning, and showcased the best of innovation in its e-learning Award. Now for the first time the ELTF membership has come together to undertake an analysis of developments in the member states and to assess what this might mean for the future. The group applied the techniques of World Café conversation and Scenario Thinking to develop its thoughts. The analysis is unashamedly qualitative and draws on expertise from leading universities across eight of the EUNIS member states. What emerges is interesting in terms of the common trends in developments in all of the nations and similarities in hopes and concerns about the future development of learning.