Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

The characterisation and emulation of rotary mechanical machines

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High spectral efficiency transmission emulation for non-linear transmission performance estimation for high order modulation formats

We demonstrate a simple method to experimentally evaluate nonlinear transmission performance of high order modulation formats using a low number of channels and channel-like ASE. We verify it's behaviour is consistent with the AWGN model of transmission.

Contact lenses and sport

Contact lenses seem to be the ideal method of vision correction for ametropic people who participate in sporting activities. This thesis sets out to evaluate the viewpoint of the optometric professional and that of the patient on the use of contact lenses in sport and to establish if education is needed within this area. It also aims to provide some scientific evidence on the effect of exercise on the physiology of the cornea with and without contact lenses. Silicone hydrogel contact lenses have previously been suggested to impede heat dissipation from the cornea compared to mid water hydrogels. This was further demonstrated with exercise. The physiological integrity of the cornea is dependant on the amount of oxygen available to its surfaces. Contact lenses can disrupt the diffusion of oxygen to the cornea. Previous methods of measuring the oxygen consumption of the cornea have been limited by their invasive nature and assessment of only a small surface area of the cornea. They are not suitable to measure corneal oxygen consumption during exercise with and without contact lenses. A new method needed to be established. This was achieved by designing a novel method by the use of an oxygen sensor inside an airtight goggle using dynamic quenching of luminescence method. This established a non-contact way of measuring the effect oxygen uptake with and without contact lenses in vivo, allowing the contact lens to be undisturbed in their natural environment. The new method differentiated between the closed-eye and the open-eye condition with a good within-visit repeatability. It also illustrated that the cornea utilises oxygen at a faster rate during controlled aerobic exercise at moderate intensity. New contact lenses are available specifically for sport, these claim to reduce glare and increase contrast for daylight outdoor sports. However, visual benefits of these types of contact lenses cannot be measured easily in an indoor clinical environment, such as the optometric practice. To demonstrate any potential benefits of these lenses emulation of them should be conducted outdoors.

The embodied nature of spatial perspective taking:embodied transformation versus sensorimotor interference

Humans are able to mentally adopt the spatial perspective of others and understand the world from their point of view. We propose that spatial perspective taking (SPT) could have developed from the physical alignment of perspectives. This would support the notion that others have put forward claiming that SPT is an embodied cognitive process. We investigated this issue by contrasting several accounts in terms of the assumed processes and the nature of the embodiment. In a series of four experiments we found substantial evidence that the transformations during SPT comprise large parts of the body schema, which we did not observe for object rotation. We further conclude that the embodiment of SPT is best conceptualised as the self-initiated emulation of a body movement, supporting the notion of endogenous motoric embodiment. Overall our results are much more in agreement with an ‘embodied’ transformation account than with the notion of sensorimotor interference. Finally we discuss our findings in terms of SPT as a possible evolutionary stepping stone towards more complex alignments of socio-cognitive perspectives.

The two forms of visuo-spatial perspective taking are differently embodied and subserve different spatial prepositions

We set out to distinguish level 1 (VPT-1) and level 2 (VPT-2) perspective taking with respect to the embodied nature of the underlying processes as well as to investigate their dependence or independence of response modality (motor vs. verbal). While VPT-1 reflects understanding of what lies within someone else’s line of sight, VPT-2 involves mentally adopting someone else’s spatial point of view. Perspective taking is a high-level conscious and deliberate mental transformation that is crucially placed at the convergence of perception, mental imagery, communication, and even theory of mind in the case of VPT-2. The differences between VPT-1 and VPT-2 mark a qualitative boundary between humans and apes, with the latter being capable of VPT-1 but not of VPT-2. However, our recent data showed that VPT-2 is best conceptualized as the deliberate simulation or emulation of a movement, thus underpinning its embodied origins. In the work presented here we compared VPT-2 to VPT-1 and found that VPT-1 is not at all, or very differently embodied. In a second experiment we replicated the qualitatively different patterns for VPT-1 and VPT-2 with verbal responses that employed spatial prepositions. We conclude that VPT-1 is the cognitive process that subserves verbal localizations using “in front” and “behind,” while VPT-2 subserves “left” and “right” from a perspective other than the egocentric. We further conclude that both processes are grounded and situated, but only VPT-2 is embodied in the form of a deliberate movement simulation that increases in mental effort with distance and incongruent proprioception. The differences in cognitive effort predict differences in the use of the associated prepositions. Our findings, therefore, shed light on the situated, grounded and embodied basis of spatial localizations and on the psychology of their use.

A critical reflection on Irish industrial policy:a strategic choice approach

Abstract: This paper offers a critical evaluation of recent Irish industrial policy (IP) experience. It argues that whilst Ireland managed to get some things “right” through its IP, substantial tensions arose through making foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction the centrepiece of policy, without at the same time adopting a more holistic approach in IP which inter alia also placed an emphasis on indigenous firms and entrepreneurship more generally. In particular, greater efforts should have been made much earlier in attempting to embed transnational corporation (TNC)-led activity better into the wider economy, in fostering domestic small firms and entrepreneurship, in promoting clusters, and more generally in evaluating IP more fully – notwithstanding the context which mitigated against such actions. As a result, Ireland as an economy remained vulnerable to strategic decisions made elsewhere by TNC decision makers, with IP effectively contributing to a situation that can be characterised as institutional and strategic failure. Overall, the paper suggests that wholesale emulation of the Irish IP approach is problematic.

An efficient screening method for computer experiments

Computer simulators of real-world processes are often computationally expensive and require many inputs. The problem of the computational expense can be handled using emulation technology; however, highly multidimensional input spaces may require more simulator runs to train and validate the emulator. We aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by screening the simulators inputs for nonlinear effects on the output rather than distinguishing between negligible and active effects. Our proposed method is built upon the elementary effects (EE) method for screening and uses a threshold value to separate the inputs with linear and nonlinear effects. The technique is simple to implement and acts in a sequential way to keep the number of simulator runs down to a minimum, while identifying the inputs that have nonlinear effects. The algorithm is applied on a set of simulated examples and a rabies disease simulator where we observe run savings ranging between 28% and 63% compared with the batch EE method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Quality assessment of video transmission in heterogeneous networks as applied to real-time telecare

This work looks into video quality assessment applied to the field of telecare and proposes an alternative metric to the more traditionally used PSNR based on the requirements of such an application. We show that the Pause Intensity metric introduced in [1] is also relevant and applicable to heterogeneous networks with a wireless last hop connected to a wired TCP backbone. We demonstrate through our emulation testbed that the impairments experienced in such a network architecture are dominated by continuity based impairments rather than artifacts, such as motion drift or blockiness. We also look into the implication of using Pause Intensity as a metric in terms of the overall video latency, which is potentially problematic should the video be sent and acted upon in real-time. We conclude that Pause Intensity may be used alongside the video characteristics which have been suggested as a measure of the overall video quality. © 2012 IEEE.

Optical fibre limits:an approach using ASE channel estimation

In this talk we investigate the usage of spectrally shaped amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) in order to emulate highly dispersed wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) signals in an optical transmission system. Such a technique offers various simplifications to large scale WDM experiments. Not only does it offer a reduction in transmitter complexity, removing the need for multiple source lasers, it potentially reduces the test and measurement complexity by requiring only the centre channel of a WDM system to be measured in order to estimate WDM worst case performance. The use of ASE as a test and measurement tool is well established in optical communication systems and several measurement techniques will be discussed [1, 2]. One of the most prevalent uses of ASE is in the measurement of receiver sensitivity where ASE is introduced in order to degrade the optical signal to noise ratio (OSNR) and measure the resulting bit error rate (BER) at the receiver. From an analytical point of view noise has been used to emulate system performance, the Gaussian Noise model is used as an estimate of highly dispersed signals and has had consider- able interest [3]. The work to be presented here extends the use of ASE by using it as a metric to emulate highly dispersed WDM signals and in the process reduce WDM transmitter complexity and receiver measurement time in a lab environment. Results thus far have indicated [2] that such a transmitter configuration is consistent with an AWGN model for transmission, with modulation format complexity and nonlinearities playing a key role in estimating the performance of systems utilising the ASE channel emulation technique. We conclude this work by investigating techniques capable of characterising the nonlinear and damage limits of optical fibres and the resultant information capacity limits. REFERENCES McCarthy, M. E., N. Mac Suibhne, S. T. Le, P. Harper, and A. D. Ellis, “High spectral efficiency transmission emulation for non-linear transmission performance estimation for high order modulation formats," 2014 European Conference on IEEE Optical Communication (ECOC), 2014. 2. Ellis, A., N. Mac Suibhne, F. Gunning, and S. Sygletos, “Expressions for the nonlinear trans- mission performance of multi-mode optical fiber," Opt. Express, Vol. 21, 22834{22846, 2013. Vacondio, F., O. Rival, C. Simonneau, E. Grellier, A. Bononi, L. Lorcy, J. Antona, and S. Bigo, “On nonlinear distortions of highly dispersive optical coherent systems," Opt. Express, Vol. 20, 1022-1032, 2012.

A new sensorless speed control scheme for doubly-fed reluctance generators

This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a novel angular velocity observer-based field-oriented control algorithm for a promising low-cost brushless doubly fed reluctance generator (BDFRG) in wind power applications. The BDFRG has been receiving increasing attention because of the use of partially rated power electronics, the high reliability of brushless design, and competitive performance to its popular slip-ring counterpart, the doubly fed induction generator. The controller viability has been demonstrated on a BDFRG laboratory test facility for emulation of variable speed and loading conditions of wind turbines or pump drives.

A cautionary tale of two ‘tigers’: Industrial policy ‘lessons’ from Ireland and Hungary?

This paper draws industrial policy lessons for small Central and Eastern European states through a critical evaluation of recent Irish and Hungarian experiences. The paper outlines a ‘holistic view’ of industrial policy before exploring the experiences of the two economies. Whilst both have managed to ‘do’ policy well in some regards, substantial challenges remain in making FDI attraction the centrepiece of industrial policy, as has been highlighted recently. Overall, the paper suggests that wholesale emulation of the Irish and Hungarian approach is problematic for small open CEE states, and that more balanced approaches to development - and hence industrial policy – are warranted.