Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets

A two-factor no-arbitrage model is used to provide a theoretical link between stock and bond market volatility. While this model suggests that short-term interest rate volatility may, at least in part, drive both stock and bond market volatility, the empirical evidence suggests that past bond market volatility affects both markets and feeds back into short-term yield volatility. The empirical modelling goes on to examine the (time-varying) correlation structure between volatility in the stock and bond markets and finds that the sign of this correlation has reversed over the last 20 years. This has important implications far portfolio selection in financial markets. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The definition, theoretical modelling and empirical research of front-line service employee corporate identity within a UK national grocery retailer:determining the FLE corporate brand identification construct

Over the past forty years the corporate identity literature has developed to a point of maturity where it currently contains many definitions and models of the corporate identity construct at the organisational level. The literature has evolved by developing models of corporate identity or in considering corporate identity in relation to new and developing themes, e.g. corporate social responsibility. It has evolved into a multidisciplinary domain recently incorporating constructs from other literature to further its development. However, the literature has a number of limitations. It remains that an overarching and universally accepted definition of corporate identity is elusive, potentially leaving the construct with a lack of clear definition. Only a few corporate identity definitions and models, at the corporate level, have been empirically tested. The corporate identity construct is overwhelmingly defined and theoretically constructed at the corporate level, leaving the literature without a detailed understanding of its influence at an individual stakeholder level. Front-line service employees (FLEs), form a component in a number of corporate identity models developed at the organisational level. FLEs deliver the services of an organisation to its customers, as well as represent the organisation by communicating and transporting its core defining characteristics to customers through continual customer contact and interaction. This person-to-person contact between an FLE and the customer is termed a service encounter, where service encounters influence a customer’s perception of both the service delivered and the associated level of service quality. Therefore this study for the first time defines, theoretically models and empirically tests corporate identity at the individual FLE level, termed FLE corporate identity. The study uses the services marketing literature to characterise an FLE’s operating environment, arriving at five potential dimensions to the FLE corporate identity construct. These are scrutinised against existing corporate identity definitions and models to arrive at a definition for the construct. In reviewing the corporate identity, services marketing, branding and organisational psychology literature, a theoretical model is developed for FLE corporate identity, which is empirically and quantitatively tested, with FLEs in seven stores of a major national retailer. Following rigorous construct reliability and validity testing, the 601 usable responses are used to estimate a confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model for the study. The results for the individual hypotheses and the structural model are very encouraging, as they fit the data well and support a definition of FLE corporate identity. This study makes contributions to the branding, services marketing and organisational psychology literature, but its principal contribution is to extend the corporate identity literature into a new area of discourse and research, that of FLE corporate identity

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Individual spirit at work and its relationship with employee work attitudes and organisational outcomes:An empirical examination in corporate Thailand

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct empirical research in corporate Thailand in order to (1) validate the Spirit at Work Scale (2) investigate the relationships between individual spirit at work and three employee work attitudinal variables (job satisfaction, organisational identification and psychological well-being) and three organisational outcomes (in-role performance, organisational citizenship behaviours (OCB), and turnover intentions) (3) further examine causal relations among these organisational behaviour variables with a longitudinal design (4) examine three employee work attitudes as mediator variables between individual spirit at work and three organisational outcomes and (5) explore the potential antecedents of organisational conditions that foster employee experienced individual spirit at work. The two pilot studies with 155 UK and 175, 715 Thai samples were conducted for validation testing of the main measure used in this study: Spirit at Work Scale (Kinjerski & Skrypnek, 2006a). The results of the two studies including discriminant validity analyses strongly provided supportive evidence that Spirit at Work Scale (SAWS) is a sound psychometric measure and also a distinct construct from the three work attitude constructs. The final model of SAWS contains a total of twelve items; a three factor structure (meaning in work, sense of community, and spiritual connection) in which the sub-factors loaded on higher order factors and also had very acceptable reliability. In line with these results it was decided to use the second-order of SAWS model for Thai samples in the main study and subsequent analysis. The 715 completed questionnaires were received from the first wave of data collection during July - August 2008 and the second wave was conducted again within the same organisations and 501 completed questionnaires were received during March - April 2009. Data were obtained through 49 organisations which were from three types of organisations within Thailand: public organisations, for-profit organisations, and notfor-profit organisations. Confirmatory factor analysis of all measures used in the study and hypothesised model were tested with structural equation modelling techniques. The results were greatly supportive for the direct structural model and partially supportive for the fully mediated model. Moreover, there were different findings across self report and supervisor rating on performance and OCB models. Additionally, the antecedent conditions that fostered employees experienced individual spirit at work and the implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.

Conditional volatility and firm size:an empirical analysis of UK equity portfolios

The techniques and insights from two distinct areas of financial economic modelling are combined to provide evidence of the influence of firm size on the volatility of stock portfolio returns. Portfolio returns are characterized by positive serial correlation induced by the varying levels of non-synchronous trading among the component stocks. This serial correlation is greatest for portfolios of small firms. The conditional volatility of stock returns has been shown to be well represented by the GARCH family of statistical processes. Using a GARCH model of the variance of capitalization-based portfolio returns, conditioned on the autocorrelation structure in the conditional mean, striking differences related to firm size are uncovered.

Satellite borne radar altimetry : empirical orbit refinement and ocean signal recovery techniques

Measurements of the sea surface obtained by satellite borne radar altimetry are irregularly spaced and contaminated with various modelling and correction errors. The largest source of uncertainty for low Earth orbiting satellites such as ERS-1 and Geosat may be attributed to orbital modelling errors. The empirical correction of such errors is investigated by examination of single and dual satellite crossovers, with a view to identifying the extent of any signal aliasing: either by removal of long wavelength ocean signals or introduction of additional error signals. From these studies, it was concluded that sinusoidal approximation of the dominant one cycle per revolution orbit error over arc lengths of 11,500 km did not remove a significant mesoscale ocean signal. The use of TOPEX/Poseidon dual crossovers with ERS-1 was shown to substantially improve the radial accuracy of ERS-1, except for some absorption of small TOPEX/Poseidon errors. The extraction of marine geoid information is of great interest to the oceanographic community and was the subject of the second half of this thesis. Firstly through determination of regional mean sea surfaces using Geosat data, it was demonstrated that a dataset with 70cm orbit error contamination could produce a marine geoid map which compares to better than 12cm with an accurate regional high resolution gravimetric geoid. This study was then developed into Optimal Fourier Transform Interpolation, a technique capable of analysing complete altimeter datasets for the determination of consistent global high resolution geoid maps. This method exploits the regular nature of ascending and descending data subsets thus making possible the application of fast Fourier transform algorithms. Quantitative assessment of this method was limited by the lack of global ground truth gravity data, but qualitative results indicate good signal recovery from a single 35-day cycle.

Numerical modelling of agglomerate degradation

In the processing industries particulate materials are often in the form of powders which themselves are agglomerations of much smaller sized particles. During powder processing operations agglomerate degradation occurs primarily as a result of collisions between agglomerates and between agglomerates and the process equipment. Due to the small size of the agglomerates and the very short duration of the collisions it is currently not possible to obtain sufficiently detailed quantitative information from real experiments to provide a sound theoretically based strategy for designing particles to prevent or guarantee breakage. However, with the aid of computer simulated experiments, the micro-examination of these short duration dynamic events is made possible. This thesis presents the results of computer simulated experiments on a 2D monodisperse agglomerate in which the algorithms used to model the particle-particle interactions have been derived from contact mechanics theories and, necessarily, incorporate contact adhesion. A detailed description of the theoretical background is included in the thesis. The results of the agglomerate impact simulations show three types of behaviour depending on whether the initial impact velocity is high, moderate or low. It is demonstrated that high velocity impacts produce extensive plastic deformation which leads to subsequent shattering of the agglomerate. At moderate impact velocities semi-brittle fracture is observed and there is a threshold velocity below which the agglomerate bounces off the wall with little or no visible damage. The micromechanical processes controlling these different types of behaviour are discussed and illustrated by computer graphics. Further work is reported to demonstrate the effect of impact velocity and bond strength on the damage produced. Empirical relationships between impact velocity, bond strength and damage are presented and their relevance to attrition and comminution is discussed. The particle size distribution curves resulting from the agglomerate impacts are also provided. Computer simulated diametrical compression tests on the same agglomerate have also been carried out. Simulations were performed for different platen velocities and different bond strengths. The results show that high platen velocities produce extensive plastic deformation and crushing. Low platen velocities produce semi-brittle failure in which cracks propagate from the platens inwards towards the centre of the agglomerate. The results are compared with the results of the agglomerate impact tests in terms of work input, applied velocity and damage produced.

Modelling ocular monochromatic aberrations using schematic eyes with homogeneous optical media

Previous research has indicated that schematic eyes incorporating aspheric surfaces but lacking gradient index are unable to model ocular spherical aberration and peripheral astigmatism simultaneously. This limits their use as wide-angle schematic eyes. This thesis challenges this assumption by investigating the flexibility of schematic eyes comprising aspheric optical surfaces and homogeneous optical media. The full variation of ocular component dimensions found in human eyes was established from the literature. Schematic eye parameter variants were limited to these dimensions. The levels of spherical aberration and peripheral astigmatism modelled by these schematic eyes were compared to the range of measured levels. These were also established from the literature. To simplify comparison of modelled and measured data, single value parameters were introduced; the spherical aberration function (SAF), and peripheral astigmatism function (PAF). Some ocular components variations produced a wide range of aberrations without exceeding the limits of human ocular components. The effect of ocular component variations on coma was also investigated, but no comparison could be made as no empirical data exists. It was demonstrated that by combined manipulation of a number of parameters in the schematic eyes it was possible to model all levels of ocular spherical aberration and peripheral astigmatism. However, the unique parameters of a human eye could not be obtained in this way, as a number of models could be used to produce the same spherical aberration and peripheral astigmatism, while giving very different coma levels. It was concluded that these schematic eyes are flexible enough to model the monochromatic aberrations tested, the absence of gradient index being compensated for by altering the asphericity of one or more surfaces.

Theoretical and empirical evaluation of phakic and pseudophakic accomodation

The binding theme of this thesis is the examination of both phakic and pseudophakic accommodation by means of theoretical modelling and the application of a new biometric measuring technique. Anterior Segment Optical Coherence Tomography (AS-OCT) was used to assess phakic accommodative changes in 30 young subjects (19.4 2.0 years; range, 18 to 25 years). A new method of assessing curvature change with this technique was employed with limited success. Changes in axial accommodative spacing, however, proved to be very similar to those of the Scheimpflug-based data. A unique biphasic trend in the position of the posterior crystalline lens surface during accommodation was discovered, which has not been alluded to in the literature. All axial changes with accommodation were statistically significant (p < 0.01) with the exception of corneal thickness (p = 0.81). A two-year follow-up study was undertaken for a cohort of subjects previously implanted with a new accommodating intraocular lens (AIOL) (Lenstec Tetraflex KH3500). All measures of best corrected distance visual acuity (BCDVA; +0.04 0.24 logMAR), distance corrected near visual acuity (DCNVA; +0.61 0.17 logMAR) and contrast sensitivity (+1.35 0.21 log units) were good. The subjective accommodation response quantified with the push-up technique (1.53 0.64 D) and defocus curves (0.77 0.29 D) was greater than the objective stimulus response (0.21 0.19 D). AS-OCT measures with accommodation stimulus revealed a small mean posterior movement of the AIOLs (0.02 0.03 mm for a 4.0 D stimulus); this is contrary to proposed mechanism of the anterior focus-shift principle.

The modelling of energy efficient drying for DSM (BL)

This thesis investigates the modelling of drying processes for the promotion of market-led Demand Side Management (DSM) as applied to the UK Public Electricity Suppliers. A review of DSM in the electricity supply industry is provided, together with a discussion of the relevant drivers supporting market-led DSM and energy services (ES). The potential opportunities for ES in a fully deregulated energy market are outlined. It is suggested that targeted industrial sector energy efficiency schemes offer significant opportunity for long term customer and supplier benefit. On a process level, industrial drying is highlighted as offering significant scope for the application of energy services. Drying is an energy-intensive process used widely throughout industry. The results of an energy survey suggest that 17.7 per cent of total UK industrial energy use derives from drying processes. Comparison with published work indicates that energy use for drying shows an increasing trend against a background of reducing overall industrial energy use. Airless drying is highlighted as offering potential energy saving and production benefits to industry. To this end, a comprehensive review of the novel airless drying technology and its background theory is made. Advantages and disadvantages of airless operation are defined and the limited market penetration of airless drying is identified, as are the key opportunities for energy saving. Limited literature has been found which details the modelling of energy use for airless drying. A review of drying theory and previous modelling work is made in an attempt to model energy consumption for drying processes. The history of drying models is presented as well as a discussion of the different approaches taken and their relative merits. The viability of deriving energy use from empirical drying data is examined. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are successfully applied to the modelling of drying rates for 3 drying technologies, namely convective air, heat pump and airless drying. The ANFIS systems are then integrated into a novel energy services model for the prediction of relative drying times, energy cost and atmospheric carbon dioxide emission levels. The author believes that this work constitutes the first to use fuzzy systems for the modelling of drying performance as an energy services approach to DSM. To gain an insight into the 'real world' use of energy for drying, this thesis presents a unique first-order energy audit of every ceramic sanitaryware manufacturing site in the UK. Previously unknown patterns of energy use are highlighted. Supplementary comments on the timing and use of drying systems are also made. The limitations of such large scope energy surveys are discussed.

The antecedents of prosocial service behaviours:an empirical investigation

Frontline employee attitudes and behaviours during service encounters influence customers' perceptions of service quality. For this reason, the identification of variables that influence service behaviours is important. Much remains unknown about the factors affecting service behaviours in service settings. This study investigates service employees' attitudinal (job satisfaction and organisational commitment) and behavioural (prosocial service behaviours) responses to management strategies (internal communication, professional development and empowerment). One hundred and eighty-eight service employees contributed data, which were analysed using a structural modelling methodology. The authors found that management strategies influence service behaviours directly but the mediating role of job attitudes is not supported.

Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.

An unsupervised Bayesian modelling approach to storyline detection from news articles

Storyline detection from news articles aims at summarizing events described under a certain news topic and revealing how those events evolve over time. It is a difficult task because it requires first the detection of events from news articles published in different time periods and then the construction of storylines by linking events into coherent news stories. Moreover, each storyline has different hierarchical structures which are dependent across epochs. Existing approaches often ignore the dependency of hierarchical structures in storyline generation. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised Bayesian model, called dynamic storyline detection model, to extract structured representations and evolution patterns of storylines. The proposed model is evaluated on a large scale news corpus. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms several baseline approaches.

The use of modelling in purchasing/supply management research

The purpose of this research to explore the use of modelling in the field of Purchasing and Supply Management (P/SM). We are particularly interested in identifying the specific areas of P/SM where there are opportunities for the use of modelling based methods. The paper starts with an overview of main types of modelling and also provides a categorisation of the main P/SM research themes. Our research shows that there are many opportunities for using descriptive, predictive and prescriptive modelling approaches in all areas of P/SM research from the ones with a focus on the actual function from a purely operational and execution perspective (e.g. purchasing processes and behaviour) to the ones with a focus on the organisational level from a more strategic perspective (e.g. strategy and policy). We conclude that future P/SM research needs to explore the value of modelling not just at the functional or operational level, but also at the organisation and strategic level respectively. We also acknowledge that while using empirical results to inform and improve models has advantages, there are also drawbacks, which relate to the value, the practical relevance and the generalisability of the modelling based approaches.