An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

GIS and optimisation:potential benefits for emergency facility location in humanitarian logistics

Floods are one of the most dangerous and common disasters worldwide, and these disasters are closely linked to the geography of the affected area. As a result, several papers in the academic field of humanitarian logistics have incorporated the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for disaster management. However, most of the contributions in the literature are using these systems for network analysis and display, with just a few papers exploiting the capabilities of GIS to improve planning and preparedness. To show the capabilities of GIS for disaster management, this paper uses raster GIS to analyse potential flooding scenarios and provide input to an optimisation model. The combination is applied to two real-world floods in Mexico to evaluate the value of incorporating GIS for disaster planning. The results provide evidence that including GIS analysis for a decision-making tool in disaster management can improve the outcome of disaster operations by reducing the number of facilities used at risk of flooding. Empirical results imply the importance of the integration of advanced remote sensing images and GIS for future systems in humanitarian logistics.