Exchange rate economic exposure and hedging:the significance of currency options

This thesis focuses on the theoretical examination of the exchange rate economic (operating) exposure within the context of the theory of the firm, and proposes some hedging solutions using currency options. The examination of economic exposure is based on such parameters as firms' objectives, industry structure and production cost efficiency. In particular, it examines an hypothetical exporting firm with costs in domestic currency, which faces competition from foreign firms in overseas markets and has a market share expansion objective. Within this framework, the hypothesis is established that economic exposure, portrayed in a diagram connecting export prices and real exchange rates, is asymmetric (i.e. the negative effects depreciation are higher than the positive effects of a currency depreciation). In this case, export business can be seen as a real option, given by exporting firms to overseas customer. Different scenarios about the asymmetry hypothesis can be derived for different assumptions about the determinants of economic exposure. Having established the asymmetry hypothesis, the hedging against this exposure is analysed. The hypothesis is established, that a currency call option should be used in hedging against asymmetric economic exposure. Further, some advanced currency options stategies are discussed, and their use in hedging several scenarios of exposure is indicated, establishing the hypothesis that, the optimal options strategy is a function of the determinants of exposure. Some extensions on the theoretical analysis are examined. These include the hedging of multicurrency exposure using options, and the exposure of a purely domestic firm facing import competition. The empirical work addresses two issues: the empirical validity of the asymmetry hypothesis and the examination of the hedging effectiveness of currency options.

The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

Empirical analysis of human capital development and economic growth in Europe

Recent discussion of the knowledge-based economy draws increasingly attention to the role that the creation and management of knowledge plays in economic development. Development of human capital, the principal mechanism for knowledge creation and management, becomes a central issue for policy-makers and practitioners at the regional, as well as national, level. Facing competition both within and across nations, regional policy-makers view human capital development as a key to strengthening the positions of their economies in the global market. Against this background, the aim of this study is to go some way towards answering the question of whether, and how, investment in education and vocational training at regional level provides these territorial units with comparative advantages. The study reviews literature in economics and economic geography on economic growth (Chapter 2). In growth model literature, human capital has gained increased recognition as a key production factor along with physical capital and labour. Although leaving technical progress as an exogenous factor, neoclassical Solow-Swan models have improved their estimates through the inclusion of human capital. In contrast, endogenous growth models place investment in research at centre stage in accounting for technical progress. As a result, they often focus upon research workers, who embody high-order human capital, as a key variable in their framework. An issue of discussion is how human capital facilitates economic growth: is it the level of its stock or its accumulation that influences the rate of growth? In addition, these economic models are criticised in economic geography literature for their failure to consider spatial aspects of economic development, and particularly for their lack of attention to tacit knowledge and urban environments that facilitate the exchange of such knowledge. Our empirical analysis of European regions (Chapter 3) shows that investment by individuals in human capital formation has distinct patterns. Those regions with a higher level of investment in tertiary education tend to have a larger concentration of information and communication technology (ICT) sectors (including provision of ICT services and manufacture of ICT devices and equipment) and research functions. Not surprisingly, regions with major metropolitan areas where higher education institutions are located show a high enrolment rate for tertiary education, suggesting a possible link to the demand from high-order corporate functions located there. Furthermore, the rate of human capital development (at the level of vocational type of upper secondary education) appears to have significant association with the level of entrepreneurship in emerging industries such as ICT-related services and ICT manufacturing, whereas such association is not found with traditional manufacturing industries. In general, a high level of investment by individuals in tertiary education is found in those regions that accommodate high-tech industries and high-order corporate functions such as research and development (R&D). These functions are supported through the urban infrastructure and public science base, facilitating exchange of tacit knowledge. They also enjoy a low unemployment rate. However, the existing stock of human and physical capital in those regions with a high level of urban infrastructure does not lead to a high rate of economic growth. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the rate of economic growth is determined by the accumulation of human and physical capital, not by level of their existing stocks. We found no significant effects of scale that would favour those regions with a larger stock of human capital. The primary policy implication of our study is that, in order to facilitate economic growth, education and training need to supply human capital at a faster pace than simply replenishing it as it disappears from the labour market. Given the significant impact of high-order human capital (such as business R&D staff in our case study) as well as the increasingly fast pace of technological change that makes human capital obsolete, a concerted effort needs to be made to facilitate its continuous development.

Low bit-rate speech encoding for digital mobile radio

The need for low bit-rate speech coding is the result of growing demand on the available radio bandwidth for mobile communications both for military purposes and for the public sector. To meet this growing demand it is required that the available bandwidth be utilized in the most economic way to accommodate more services. Two low bit-rate speech coders have been built and tested in this project. The two coders combine predictive coding with delta modulation, a property which enables them to achieve simultaneously the low bit-rate and good speech quality requirements. To enhance their efficiency, the predictor coefficients and the quantizer step size are updated periodically in each coder. This enables the coders to keep up with changes in the characteristics of the speech signal with time and with changes in the dynamic range of the speech waveform. However, the two coders differ in the method of updating their predictor coefficients. One updates the coefficients once every one hundred sampling periods and extracts the coefficients from input speech samples. This is known in this project as the Forward Adaptive Coder. Since the coefficients are extracted from input speech samples, these must be transmitted to the receiver to reconstruct the transmitted speech sample, thus adding to the transmission bit rate. The other updates its coefficients every sampling period, based on information of output data. This coder is known as the Backward Adaptive Coder. Results of subjective tests showed both coders to be reasonably robust to quantization noise. Both were graded quite good, with the Forward Adaptive performing slightly better, but with a slightly higher transmission bit rate for the same speech quality, than its Backward counterpart. The coders yielded acceptable speech quality of 9.6kbps for the Forward Adaptive and 8kbps for the Backward Adaptive.

The impact of the post-1993 economic reforms on Chinese state-owned enterprises:evidence from the electronics industry

Since 1979, China has embarked on a series of economic reform programmes, leading its socialist economy away from a Soviet planning model towards a much greater reliance on the market. In the course of the last twenty years, the Chinese economy has enjoyed a phenomenally high economic growth rate. However, earlier research suggests that Chinese state-owned enterprises remain a financial 'black hole' for the Chinese economy, in spite of various enterprise reform measures. This thesis tries to assess the impact of the reforms after 1993, especially the so-called Modern Enterprise System, on the behaviour and management practices of state firms. The central research question is whether the new rounds of economic reform have changed state firms into commercial entities operating according to market signals, as intended. In order to explore this question, an institutional approach is employed. More specifically, the thesis examines how the behaviour and management practices of state enterprises have changed with changes in the institutional environmental resulting from the introduction of new reform measures and especially the MES. The main evidence used in this research comes from the Chinese electronics industry (CEI). Non-state firms, namely collectives and joint ventures, are involved in the study to provide a benchmark against which changes in the behaviour of state firms in the mid and late 1990s are compared. A comparative statistical analysis shows that state-owned firms, both traditional and corporatised ones, still lag behind collectives and joint ventures in terms of both labour and total factor productivity. The further empirical work of this research consists of a questionnaire survey and case studies that are based on interviews with senior managers of 17 firms in the CEI. The findings of these analyses suggest that there has been little fundamental change in the behaviour pattern of state firms in the 1990s, despite the introduction of the Modern Enterprise System, and that the economic reforms after 1993 so far seem to have failed to transform the state firms into commercial entities operating according to market signals.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

Exits, entrances and entrepreneurship : an exploration of economic theories of entrepreneurship through new independent entry and infant exit

The thesis began as a study of new firm formation. Preliminary research suggested that infant death rate was considered to be a closely related problem and the search was for a theory of new firm formation which would explain both. The thesis finds theories of exit and entry inadequate in this respect and focusses instead on theories of entrepreneurship, particularly those which concentrate on entrepreneurship as an agent of change. The role of information is found to be fundamental to economic change and an understanding of information generation and dissemination and the nature and direction of information flows is postulated to lead coterminously to an understanding of entrepreneurhsip and economic change. The economics of information is applied to theories of entrepreneurhsip and some testable hypotheses are derived. The testing relies on etablishing and measuring the information bases of the founders of new firms and then testing for certain hypothesised differences between the information bases of survivors and non-survivors. No theory of entrepreneurship is likely to be straightforwardly testable and many postulates have to be established to bring the theory to a testable stage. A questionnaire is used to gather information from a sample of firms taken from a new micro-data set established as part of the work of the thesis. Discriminant Analysis establishes the variables which best distinguish between survivors and non-survivors. The variables which emerge as important discriminators are consistent with the theory which the analysis is testing. While there are alternative interpretations of the important variables, collective consistency with the theory under test is established. The thesis concludes with an examination of the implications of the theory for policy towards stimulating new firm formation.

A techno-economic study of the recycling of mixed plastics to useful products

The techno-economic implications of recycling the components of mixed plastics waste have been studied in a two-part investigation: (a) An economic survey of the prospects for plastics recycling, the plastics waste arisings from retailing, building, automotive, light engineering and chemical industries have been surveyed by mans of questionnaires and interviews. This was partially successful and indicated that very considerable quantities of relatively clean plastics packaging was available in major department chains and household stores. The possibility of devising collection systems for such sources, which do not lead to any extra cost, have been suggested. However, the household collection of plastics waste has been found to be uneconomic due to high cost of collection, transportation and lack of markets for the end products. (b) In a technical study of blends of PE/PP and PE/PS which are found in admixture in waste plastics, it has been shown that they exhibit poor mechanical properties due to incompatibility. Consequently reprocessing of such unsegregated blends results in products of little technological value. The inclusion of some commercial block and graft copolymers which behave as solid phase dispersants (SPES) increase the toughness of the blends (e.g. EPDM in PE/PP blend and SBS in PE/PS blend). Also, EPDM is found to be very effective for improving the toughness of single component polypropylene. However, the improved Technical properties of such blends have been accompanied by a fast rate of photo-oxidation and loss of toughness due to the presence of unsaturation in SPD's. The change in mechanical properties occurring during oven ageing and ultra-violet light accelerated weathering of these binary and ternary blends was followed by a viscoelastonetric technique (Rheovibron) over 9,, wide range of temperatures, impact resistance at room temperature (20-41'G) and changes in functional groups (i.e. carbonyl and trans-1,4-polybutadiene). Also the heat and light stability of single and mixed plastics to which thiol antioxidants were bound to SPE1 segment have been studied and compared with conventional antioxidants. The long-term performance of the mixed plastics containing SPE1 have been improved significantly by the use of conventional and bound antioxidants. It is concluded that an estimated amount of 30000 tonnes/year of plastics waste is available from department chains and household stores which can be converted to useful end products. This justifies pilot-experiments in collaboration with supermarkets, recyclers and converters by use of low cost SPD's and additives designed to make the materials more compatible.

Technical and economic study of plantain food products

Plantain (Banana-Musa AAB) is a widely growing but commercially underexploited tropical fruit. This study demonstrates the processing of plantain to flour and extends its use and convenience as a constituent of bread, cake and biscuit. Plantain was peeled, dried and milled to produce flour. Proximate analysis was carried out on the flour to determine the food composition. Drying at temperatures below 70ºC produced light coloured plantain flour. Experiments were carried out to determine the mechanism of drying, the heat and mass transfer coefficients, effect of air velocity, temperature and cube size on the rate of drying of plantain cubes. The drying was diffusion controlled. Pilot scale drying of plantain cubes in a cabinet dryer showed no significant increase of drying rate above 70ºC. In the temperature range found most suitable for plantain drying (ie 60 to 70ºC) the total drying time was adequately predicted using a modified equation based on Fick's Law provided the cube temperature was taken to be about 5ºC below the actual drying air temperature. Studies of baking properties of plantain flour revealed that plantain flour can be substituted for strong wheat flour up to 15% for bread making and up to 50% for madeira cake. A shortcake biscuit was produced using 100% plantain flour and test-marketed. Detailed economic studies showed that the production of plantain fruit and its processing into flour would be economically viable in Nigeria when the flour is sold at the wholesale price of NO.65 per kilogram provided a minimum sale of 25% plantain suckers. There is need for government subsidy if plantain flour is to compete with imported wheat flour. The broader economic benefits accruing from the processing of plantain fruit into flour and its use in bakery products include employment opportunity, savings in foreign exchange and stimulus to home agriculture.

Appropriate wage rate and related issues for employment intensive public works programmes in Timor Leste

Employment generating public works (EGPW) are an important part of GoTL’s strategy to reduce unemployment, underemployment and poverty and contribute to social stability. The term EGPW is used in this report as a generic term to encompass labour intensive (LI) and labourbased (LB) approaches. The distinction between these approaches is made below. SEFOPE is being supported by a number of international agencies to develop and implement employment generating public works programmes (EGPWPs). Other government ministries and agencies and NGOs offering different wage rates are also engaged in such programmes and projects. In setting wage rates for such programmes, it is necessary to take account of (a) the nature of benefits they offer (e.g. the balance between employment creation and effective use of labour); (b) the beneficiaries to be targeted, and (c) any adverse impacts on other economic activities. The purposes of this assignment are: (a) to make recommendations on appropriate wage rates for unskilled casual employment on public works programmes, and (b) make a broad assessment of the labour supply response to the employment opportunities created by employment intensive programmes. The latter would help in gauging the scale of such activities required.

The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.