A techno-economic assessment of the use of fast pyrolysis bio-oil from UK energy crops in the production of electricity and combined heat and power

This thesis investigates the cost of electricity generation using bio-oil produced by the fast pyrolysis of UK energy crops. The study covers cost from the farm to the generator’s terminals. The use of short rotation coppice willow and miscanthus as feedstocks was investigated. All costs and performance data have been taken from published papers, reports or web sites. Generation technologies are compared at scales where they have proved economic burning other fuels, rather than at a given size. A pyrolysis yield model was developed for a bubbling fluidised bed fast pyrolysis reactor from published data to predict bio-oil yields and pyrolysis plant energy demands. Generation using diesel engines, gas turbines in open and combined cycle (CCGT) operation and steam cycle plants was considered. The use of bio-oil storage to allow the pyrolysis and generation plants to operate independently of each other was investigated. The option of using diesel generators and open cycle gas turbines for combined heat and power was examined. The possible cost reductions that could be expected through learning if the technology is widely implemented were considered. It was found that none of the systems analysed would be viable without subsidy, but with the current Renewable Obligation Scheme CCGT plants in the 200 to 350 MWe range, super-critical coal fired boilers co-fired with bio-oil, and groups of diesel engine based CHP schemes supplied by a central pyrolysis plant would be viable. It was found that the cost would reduce with implementation and the planting of more energy crops but some subsidy would still be needed to make the plants viable.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

The pre-treatment and pyrolysis of biomass for the production of liquids for fuels and speciality chemicals

Fast pyrolysis of biomass is a significant technology for producing pyrolysis liquids [also known as bio-oil], which contain a number of chemicals. The pyrolysis liquid can be used as a fuel, can be produced solely as a source of chemicals or can have some of the chemicals extracted and the residue used as a fuel. There were two primary objectives of this work. The first was to determine the fast pyrolysis conditions required to maximise the pyrolysis liquid yield from a number of biomass feedstocks. The second objective was to selectively increase the yield of certain chemicals in the pyrolysis liquid by pre-treatment of the feedstock prior to pyrolysis. For a particular biomass feedstock the pyrolysis liquid yield is affected by the reactor process parameters. It has been found that, providing the other process parameters are restricted to the values shown below, reactor temperature is the controlling parameter. The maximum pyrolysis liquid yield and the temperature at which it occurs has been found by a series of pyrolysis experiments over the temperature range 400-600°C. high heating rates > 1000°C/s; pyrolysis vapour residence times <2 seconds; pyrolysis vapour temperatures >400 but <500°C; rapid quenching of the product vapours. Pre-treatment techniques have been devised to modify the chemical composition and/or structure of the biomass in such a way as to influence the chemical composition of the pyrolysis liquid product. The pre-treatments were divided into two groups, those that remove material from the biomass and those which add material to the biomass. Component removal techniques have selectively increased the yield of levoglucosan from 2.45 to 18.58 mf wt.% [dry feedstock basis]. Additive techniques have selectively increased the yield of hydroxyacetaldehyde from 7.26 to 11.63 mf w.% [dry feedstock basis]. Techno-economic assessment has been carried out on an integrated levoglucosan production process [incorporating pre-treatment, pyrolysis and chemical extraction stages] to assess which method of chemical production is the more cost effective. It has been found that it is better to pre-treat the biomass in order to increase the yield of specific chemicals in the pyrolysis liquid and hence improve subsequent chemicals extraction.

Technoeconomic modelling of coal conversion processes for liquid fuel production

Since the oil crisis of 1973 considerable interest has been shown in the production of liquid fuels from alternative sources. In particular processes utilizing coal as the feedstock have received considerable interest. These processes can be divided into direct and indirect liquefaction and pyrolysis. This thesis describes the modelling of indirect coal liquefaction processes for the purpose of performing technical and economic assessment of the production of liquid fuels from coal and lignite, using a variety of gasification and synthesis gas liquefaction technologies. The technologies were modeled on a 'step model' basis where a step is defined as a combination of individual unit operations which together perform a significant function on the process streams, such as a methanol synthesis step or a gasification and physical gas cleaning step. Sample results of the modelling, covering a wide range of gasifiers, liquid synthesis processes and products are presented in this thesis. Due to the large number of combinations of gasifier, liquid synthesis processes, products and economic sensitivity cases, a complete set of results is impractical to present in a single publication. The main results show that methanol is the cheapest fuel to produce from coal followed by fuel alcohol, diesel from the Shell Middle Distillate Synthesis process,gasoline from Mobil Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process, diesel from the Mobil Methanol Olefins Gasoline Diesel (MOGD) process and finally gasoline from the same process. Some variation in production costs of all the products was shown depending on type of gasifier chosen and feedstock.

An assessment of the industry cluster approach as a tool for local economic development:the case of the new media industry in Birmingham

Industry cluster policies are a current trend in local economic development programmes and represent a major shift from traditional approaches. This trend has been coupled by an increasing interest in new media industry as a significant focus for regional development strategies. In England clusters and new media industry have therefore come to be seen as important tools in promoting local and regional economic development. This study aimed to ascertain the success of these policies. In order to achieve the aims of the study, the Birmingham new media industry was chosen for the study. In addition to an extensive review of the literature, semi-structured interviews were conducted with new media firms and Business Support Agencies (BSAs) offering programmes to promote the development of the new media industry cluster. The key findings of the thesis are that the concerns of new media industry when choosing their location do not conform to the industry cluster theory. Moreover, close proximity in geographical location of the industries does not mean there is collaboration and any costs saved as a result of close proximity to similar firms are at present seen as irrelevant because of the type of products they offer. Building trust between firms is the key in developing the new media industry cluster and the BSAs can act as a broker and provide neutral ground to develop it. The key policy recommendations are that new media industry is continually changing and research must continuously track and analyse cluster dynamics in order to be aware of emerging trends and future developments that can positively and negatively affect the cluster. Policy makers need to keep in mind that there is no uniform tool kit to foster the different sectors in cluster development. It is also important for them to be winning support and trust of new media firms since this is key in the success of the cluster. When cluster programs are introduced they must explain their benefits to industries more effectively in order to encourage them to participate in programmes. The general conclusions of the thesis are that clusters are a potentially important tool in local economic development policy and that the new media industry has a considerable growth potential. The kinds of relationships which cluster theory suggests develop between do not, as yet, appear to exist within the new media cluster. There are however, steps that the BSAs can take to encourage their development. Thus, the BSAs need to ensure that they establish an environment that enables growth of the industry.

Social impact assessment of a sewerage project in Barbados

This report investigates why a nationally important and internationally funded infrastructural project within the Caribbean island of Barbados — The South Coast Sewerage Project — spurned a substantial level of negative socio-economic externalities. Primary and secondary research evaluated the presence or effectiveness of social impact assessment as a mitigation tool. The mitigation measures suggested within the appraisal report appear to have been considered by the Project Execution Unit (PEU) of Government of Barbados. The primary obstacle seems to have been the implementation of the mitigation process by the contractor. This highlights the need to foster an interconnected and symbiotic relationship between appraisal and implementation, if an initiative is to be conducted efficiently and effectively. Additionally, the South Coast Sewerage Project exemplifies the importance of establishing and sustaining a monitoring/control mechanism as an integral part of project construction.

Time series analysis in the assessment of ICT impact at the aggregate level – lessons and implications for the new economy

The major role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the new economy is well documented: countries worldwide are pouring resources into their ICT infrastructure despite the widely acknowledged “productivity paradox”. Evaluating the contribution of ICT investments has become an elusive but important goal of IS researchers and economists. But this area of research is fraught with complexity and we have used Solow's Residual together with time-series analysis tools to overcome some methodological inadequacies of previous studies. Using this approach, we conduct a study of 20 countries to determine if there was empirical evidence to support claims that ICT investments are worthwhile. The results show that ICT contributes to economic growth in many developed countries and newly industrialized economies (NIEs), but not in developing countries. We finally suggest ICT-complementary factors, in an attempt to rectify possible flaws in ICT policies as a contribution towards improvement in global productivity.

An assessment of factors affecting performance and growth of new technology based firms in the UK

New Technology Based Firms (NTBF) are considered to be important for the economic development of a country in regards to both employment growth and innovative activity. The latter is believed to contribute significantly to the increase in productivity and therefore the competitiveness of UK’s economy. This study contributes to the above literature by investigating two of the factors believed to limit the growth of such firms in the UK. The first concerns the existence of a ‘knowledge gap’ while the second the existence of a ‘financial gap’. These themes are developed along three main research lines. Firstly, based upon the human capital theory initially proposed by Backer (1964) new evidence is provided on the human capital characteristics (experience and education) of the current UK NTBF entrepreneurs. Secondly, the causal relationship between general and specific human capital (as well as their interactions) upon the company performance and growth is investigated via its traditional direct effect as well as via its indirect effect upon the access to external finance. Finally, more light is shed on the financial structure and the type of financial constraints that high-tech firms face at start-up. In particular, whether a financial gap exists is explored by distinguishing between the demand and the supply of external finance as well as by type of external source of financing. The empirical testing of the various research hypotheses has been obtained by carrying out an original survey of new technology based firms defined as independent companies, established in the past 25 years in R&D intensive sectors. The resulting dataset contains information for 412 companies on a number of general company characteristics and the characteristics of their entrepreneurs in 2004. Policy and practical implications for future and current entrepreneurs and also providers of external finance are provided.

Applying quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of pharmacotherapy of psoriasis

Healthcare providers and policy makers are faced with an ever-increasing number of medical publications. Searching for relevant information and keeping up to date with new research findings remains a constant challenge. It has been widely acknowledged that narrative reviews of the literature are susceptible to several types of bias and a systematic approach may protect against these biases. The aim of this thesis was to apply quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of topical therapies for psoriasis. In particular, to systematically examine the comparative efficacy, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of topical calcipotriol in the treatment of mild-to-moderate psoriasis. Over the years, a wide range of techniques have been used to evaluate the severity of psoriasis and the outcomes from treatment. This lack of standardisation complicates the direct comparison of results and ultimately the pooling of outcomes from different clinical trials. There is a clear requirement for more comprehensive tools for measuring drug efficacy and disease severity in psoriasis. Ideally, the outcome measures need to be simple, relevant, practical, and widely applicable, and the instruments should be reliable, valid and responsive. The results of the meta-analysis reported herein show that calcipotriol is an effective antipsoriatic agent. In the short-tenn, the pooled data found calcipotriol to be more effective than calcitriol, tacalcitol, coal tar and short-contact dithranol. Only potent corticosteroids appeared to have comparable efficacy, with less short-term side-effects. Potent corticosteroids also added to the antipsoriatic effect of calcipotriol, and appeared to suppress the occurrence of calcipotriol-induced irritation. There was insufficient evidence to support any large effects in favour of improvements in efficacy when calcipotriol is used in combination with systemic therapies in patients with severe psoriasis. However, there was a total absence of long-term morbidity data on the effectiveness of any of the interventions studied. Decision analysis showed that, from the perspective of the NHS as payer, the relatively small differences in efficacy between calcipotriol and short-contact dithranol lead to large differences in the direct cost of treating patients with mildto-moderate plaque psoriasis. Further research is needed to examine the clinical and economic issues affecting patients under treatment for psoriasis in the UK. In particular, the maintenance value and cost/benefit ratio for the various treatment strategies, and the assessment of patient's preferences has not yet been adequately addressed for this chronic recurring disease.

Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options

Power generation from biomass is a sustainable energy technology which can contribute to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but with greater potential for environmental, economic and social impacts than most other renewable energy technologies. It is important therefore in assessing bioenergy systems to take account of not only technical, but also environmental, economic and social parameters on a common basis. This work addresses the challenge of analysing, quantifying and comparing these factors for bioenergy power generation systems. A life-cycle approach is used to analyse the technical, environmental, economic and social impacts of entire bioelectricity systems, with a number of life-cycle indicators as outputs to facilitate cross-comparison. The results show that similar greenhouse gas savings are achieved with the wide variety of technologies and scales studied, but land-use efficiency of greenhouse gas savings and specific airborne emissions varied substantially. Also, while specific investment costs and electricity costs vary substantially from one system to another the number of jobs created per unit of electricity delivered remains roughly constant. Recorded views of stakeholders illustrate that diverging priorities exist for different stakeholder groups and this will influence appropriate choice of bioenergy systems for different applications.

Assessment of different formulations of oral Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine in rodent models for immunogenicity and protection against aerosol challenge with M-bovis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis is causing considerable economic loss to farmers and Government in the United Kingdom as its incidence is increasing. Efforts to control bTB in the UK are hampered by the infection in Eurasian badgers (Metes metes) that represent a wildlife reservoir and source of recurrent M. bovis exposure to cattle. Vaccination of badgers with the human TB vaccine, M. bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), in oral bait represents a possible disease control tool and holds the best prospect for reaching badger populations over a wide geographical area. Using mouse and guinea pig models, we evaluated the immunogenicity and protective efficacy, respectively, of candidate badger oral vaccines based on formulation of BCG in lipid matrix, alginate beads, or a novel microcapsular hybrid of both lipid and alginate. Two different oral doses of BCG were evaluated in each formulation for their protective efficacy in guinea pigs, while a single dose was evaluated in mice. In mice, significant immune responses (based on lymphocyte proliferation and expression of IFN-gamma) were only seen with the lipid matrix and the lipid in alginate microcapsular formulation, corresponding to the isolation of viable BCG from alimentary tract lymph nodes. In guinea pigs, only BCG formulated in lipid matrix conferred protection to the spleen and lungs following aerosol route challenge with M. bovis. Protection was seen with delivery doses in the range 10(6)-10(7) CFU, although this was more consistent in the spleen at the higher dose. No protection in terms of organ CFU was seen with BCG administered in alginate beads or in lipid in alginate microcapsules, although 10(7) in the latter formulation conferred protection in terms of increasing body weight after challenge and a smaller lung to body weight ratio at necropsy. These results highlight the potential for lipid, rather than alginate, -based vaccine formulations as suitable delivery vehicles for an oral BCG vaccine in badgers.

The economic impact of high growth start-ups:understanding the challenge for policy in the UK

Objectives The creation of more high-growth firms continues to be a key component of enterprise policy throughout the countries of the OECD. In the UK the developing enterprise policy framework highlights the importance of supporting businesses with growth potential. The difficulty, of course, is the ability of those delivering business support policies to accurately identify those businesses, especially at start-up, which will benefit from interventions and experiences an enhanced growth performance. This paper has a core objective of presenting new data on the number of high growth firms in the UK and providing an assessment of their economic significance. Approach This paper uses a specially created longitudinal firm-level database based on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) held by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for all private sector businesses in the UK for the period 1997-2008 to investigate the share of high-growth firms (including a sub-set of start-up more commonly referred to as gazelles) in successive cohorts of start-ups. We apply OECD definitions of high growth and gazelles to this database and are able to quantify for the first time their number (disaggregated by sector, region, size) and importance (employment and sales). Prior Work However, what is lacking at the core of this policy focus is any comprehensive statistical analysis of the scale and nature of high-growth firms in cohorts of new and established businesses. The evidence base in response to the question “Why do high-growth firms matter?” is surprisingly weak. Important work in this area has been initiated by Bartelsman et al., (2003),Hoffman and Jünge (2006) and Henreksen and Johansson (2009) but to date work in the UK has been limited (BERR, 2008b). Results We report that there are ~11,500 high growth firms in the UK in both 2005 and 2008. The share of high growth start-ups in the UK in 2005 (6.3%) was, contrary to the widely held perception in policy circles, higher than in the United States (5.2%). Of particular interest in the analysis are the growth trajectories (pattern of growth) of these firms as well as the extent to which they are restricted to technology-based or knowledge-based sectors. Implications and Value Using hitherto unused population data for the first time we have answered a fundamental research and policy question on the number and scale of high growth firms in the UK. We draw the conclusion that this ‘rare’ event does not readily lend itself to policy intervention on the grounds that the significant effort needed to identify such businesses ex ante would appear unjustified even if it was possible.