Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Innovation, networking and globalisation:the role of regional innovation systems in the global innovation process

In the global economy, innovation is one of the most important competitive assets for companies willing to compete in international markets. As competition moves from standardised products to customised ones, depending on each specific market needs, economies of scale are not anymore the only winning strategy. Innovation requires firms to establish processes to acquire and absorb new knowledge, leading to the recent theory of Open Innovation. Knowledge sharing and acquisition happens when firms are embedded in networks with other firms, university, institutions and many other economic actors. Several typologies of innovation and firm networks have been identified, with various geographical spans. One of the first being modelled was the Industrial Cluster (or in Italian Distretto Industriale) which was for long considered the benchmark for innovation and economic development. Other kind of networks have been modelled since the late 1970s; Regional Innovation Systems represent one of the latest and more diffuse model of innovation networks, specifically introduced to combine local networks and the global economy. This model was qualitatively exploited since its introduction, but, together with National Innovation Systems, is among the most inspiring for policy makers and is often cited by them, not always properly. The aim of this research is to setup an econometric model describing Regional Innovation Systems, becoming one the first attempts to test and enhance this theory with a quantitative approach. A dataset of 104 secondary and primary data from European regions was built in order to run a multiple linear regression, testing if Regional Innovation Systems are really correlated to regional innovation and regional innovation in cooperation with foreign partners. Furthermore, an exploratory multiple linear regression was performed to verify which variables, among those describing a Regional Innovation Systems, are the most significant for innovating, alone or with foreign partners. Furthermore, the effectiveness of present innovation policies has been tested based on the findings of the econometric model. The developed model confirmed the role of Regional Innovation Systems for creating innovation even in cooperation with international partners: this represents one of the firsts quantitative confirmation of a theory previously based on qualitative models only. Furthermore the results of this model confirmed a minor influence of National Innovation Systems: comparing the analysis of existing innovation policies, both at regional and national level, to our findings, emerged the need for potential a pivotal change in the direction currently followed by policy makers. Last, while confirming the role of the presence a learning environment in a region and the catalyst role of regional administration, this research offers a potential new perspective for the whole private sector in creating a Regional Innovation System.

De-industrialisation:Rowthorn and Wells' Model revisited

This paper presents a simple three-sector model that seeks to establish links between structural change in employment and the level of economic development. The model is a modified version of that of Rowthorn - Wells (1987). The theoretical analysis is supplemented with simple econometric tests which illustrate how the modified Rowthorn - Wells model can be used (i) to motivate empirical estimates of the link between the level of development and structures of employment, and (ii) to illustrate structural distortions under command economies.

De-industrialisation and the post-communist transition:Rowthorn and Wells' model revisited

In this paper we present a simple three-sector model explaining the structural change in employment, which is a modified version of Rowthorn-Wells (1987). We supplement the theoretical analysis with simple econometric tests, which illustrate how the modified Rowthorn-Wells model can be used to (i) motivate empirical estimates of the link between the level of development and structures of employment, (ii) illustrate structural distortions under the command economies, and the structural adjustment that happened during the post-Communist transition. We demonstrate that in the case of these economies, the transition process leads to an adjustment to the employment structures predicted by the model.