Real options and demographic decisions:empirical evidence from East and West Germany

Iyer and Velu (2006) have convincingly argued that contemporary analyses of fertility behaviour fail to explain why a woman (or a couple) will choose to postpone childbirth, and in particular to consider the role of uncertainty in this regard. They have addressed this lacuna in the literature by using a real options approach to model fertility decisions by relating uncertainty experienced by individuals to the likelihood of childbirth. However, they did not present empirical evidence. Since the theory implies the existence of two offsetting effects of uncertainty on fertility decisions, a positive insurance effect and a negative option value effect, it is not easy to reject the theory on the basis of empirical analysis, when one of these effects offsets the other. We construct such a test for East (and also West) Germany during that country's reunification, which takes advantage of the fact that because of the country's strong welfare system, the insurance effect should be dominated by the option value effect, thereby suggesting that the net relationship should be negative. The results provide rather strong support for the real options link, especially for Eastern Germany.

When East meets West:employee motivation in cross-cultural comparison

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Nation, region and history in post-communist transitions:identity politics in Ukraine, 1991-2006

Since independence in 1991, issues of nation and identity have become highly debated topics in Ukraine. This monograph explores not only how national identity is being (re)constructed by the Ukrainian state, but also the processes by which it is negotiated through society. The central argument of this work is that too much attention, concerning identity in Ukraine, has focused on markers of ethnicity and language. Instead, the author advocates a regional approach, engaging with the issue of how Ukraine's regional differences affect nation-building processes. Following the tumultuous events of the 'Orange Revolution', the view of Ukraine as a country inherently 'divided' between 'East' and 'West' has (re)emerged to become a popular explanation for political events. The study outlines the necessity for academics, policymakers and indeed politicians to veer away from this simplistic 'West versus East' divide. The book advocates an analysis of Ukraine's unique brand of regionalism not in terms of divisions, but in terms of regional differences and diversity. The author deconstructs the concept of 'Eastern Ukraine' by focusing on three Ukrainian localities, all adjacent to the Ukrainian-Russian border. The study examines how individuals provide 'their' own understanding of the place of their region within the wider processes of nation building across Ukraine. In doing so, the book develops a 'regional' approach to the study of identity politics in Ukraine.

Eastern Christianity and the Cold War, 1945-91

Despite widespread persecution, Orthodox churches not only survived the Cold War period but levels of religiosity in Orthodox countries remained significant. This book examines the often surprising relations between Orthodox churches and political regimes. It provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamics between Eastern Christianity and politics from the end of the Second World War to the fall of communism, covering 40 Orthodox churches including diasporic churches in Africa, Asia, America and Australia. Based on research from recently-opened archives and publications in a wide range of European languages, it analyses church-state relations on both sides of the Iron Curtain. It discusses the following key themes: the relationship between Orthodox churches and political power; religious resistance to communism; the political control of churches; religion and propaganda; monasticism and theological publications; religious diplomacy within the Orthodox commonwealth; and religious contacts between East and West.

A comparison of the vocational training system of Britain and West Germany as experienced by minimum-age school leavers.

The sectoral and occupational structure of Britain and West Germany has increasingly changed over the last fifty years from a manual manufacturing based to a non-manual service sector based one. There has been a trend towards more managerial and less menial type occupations. Britain employs a higher proportion of its population in the service sector than in manufacturing compared to West Germany, except in retailing, where West Germany employs twice as many people as Britain. This is a stable sector of the economy in terms of employment, but the requirements of the workforce have changed in line with changes in the industry in both countries. School leavers in the two countries, faced with the same options (FE, training schemes or employment) have opted for the various options in different proportions: young Germans are staying longer in education before embarking on training and young Britons are now less likely to go straight into employment than ten years ago. Training is becoming more accepted as the normal route into employment with government policy leading the way, but public opinion still slow to respond. This study investigates how vocational training has adapted to the changing requirements of industry, often determined by technological advancements. In some areas e.g. manufacturing industry the changes have been radical, in others such as retailing they have not, but skill requirements, not necessarily influenced by technology have changed. Social-communicative skills, frequently not even considered skills and therefore not included in training are coming to the forefront. Vocational training has adapted differently in the two countries: in West Germany on the basis of an established over-defined system and in Britain on the basis of an out-dated ill-defined and almost non-existent system. In retailing German school leavers opt for two or three year apprenticeships whereas British school leavers are offered employment with or without formalised training. The publicly held view of the occupation of sales assistant is one of low-level skill, low intellectual demands and a job anyone can do. The traditional skills - product knowledge, selling and social-communicative skills have steadily been eroded. In the last five years retailers have recognised that a return to customer service, utilising the traditional skills was going to be needed of their staff to remain competitive. This requires training. The German retail training system responded by adapting its training regulations in a long consultative process, whereas the British experimented with YTS, a formalised training scheme nationwide being a new departure. The thesis evaluates the changes in these regulations. The case studies in four retail outlets demonstrate that it is indeed product knowledge and selling and social-communicative skills which are fundamental to being a successful and content sales assistant in either country. When the skills are recognised and taught well and systematically the foundations for career development in retailing are laid in a labour market which is continually looking for better qualified workers. Training, when planned and conducted professionally is appreciated by staff and customers and of benefit to the company. In retailing not enough systematic training, to recognisable standards is carried out in Britain, whereas in West Germany the training system is nevertheless better prepared to show innovative potential as a structure and is in place on which to build. In Britain the reputation of the individual company has a greater role to play, not ensuring a national provision of good training in retailing.

Exporting to Eastern Europe : principles and practice, including a case study of the market for fire fighting equipment

East-West trade has grown rapidly since the sixties, stimulating a parallel expansion in the literature on the subject. An extensive review of this literature shows how: (i) most of the issues involved have at their source the distinctions between East and West in political ideology and/or economic management, and (ii) there has been a tendency to keep theoretical and practical perspectives on the subject too separate. This thesis demonstrates the importance of understanding the fundamental principles implied in the first point, and represents an attempt to bridge the gap identified in the second. A detailed study of the market for fire fighting equipment in Eastern Europe is undertaken in collaboration with a medium-sized company, Angus Fire Armour Limited. Desk research methods are combined with visits to the market to assess the potential for the company's products, and recommendations for future strategy are made. The case demonstrates the scope and limitations of various research methods for the East European market, and a model for market research relevant to all companies is developed. Tne case study highlights three areas largely neglected in the literature: (i) the problems of internal company adaptation to East European conditions; (ii) the division of responsibility between foreign trade organisations; and (iii) bribery and corruption in East-West trade. Further research into the second topic - through a survey of 36 UK exporters - and the third - through analysis of publicised corruption cases - confirms the representativeness of the Angus experience, and reflects on the complexity of the Bast European import process, which does not always function as is commonly supposed. The very complexity of the problems confronting companies reaffirms the need to appreciate the principles underlying the subject, while the detailed analysis into questions of, originally, a marketing nature, reveals wider implications for East-West trade and East-West relations.

Multinational firms, productivity and employment

Over the last three decades foreign direct investment (FDI) has become the most visible driver of globalisation. It has grown faster than world output and international trade and now reports world annual flows exceeding 1,000 billion US dollars. In this period, Germany has undergone significant changes in order to play an important role in the globalisation process. Apart from being a member state of the European Union (EU) whose key feature is the free flow of trade, investment and labour, the re-unification of East and West Germany in 1990 has been a significant development. This in effect has meant that East Germany as well as other Eastern European nations opened up to foreign investment for the first time. In this period, Germany has attracted in excess of 10 per cent of inward FDI into the EU and invested around 15 per cent of all FDI in the EU. This thesis explores empirically the potential impact of FDI on firms operating in and investing from Germany over a ten year period. Using panel data at the firm-level it concentrates on three areas relating to FDI. Firstly, it considers whether foreign-owned firms are more productive than German multinational firms and German non-multinational firms. Secondly, the thesis considers the impact of German investments abroad on domestic productivity. Finally, employment effects emanating from outward high-tech FDI are estimated for the leading OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, namely Germany, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Japan. The findings of the first analysis indicate that while foreign-owned firms are generally more productive than German non-multinationals, there is no clear cut difference between foreign-owned firms and German multinationals. These differences would not have been uncovered, had the analysis compared foreign firms with all domestic firms. Equally, location within Germany is also important, as this productivity gap is more pronounced for firms which are located in the Eastern states. The findings of the second analysis suggest that engaging in outward FDI has an overall positive effect on the parent firm's productivity at home. Finally, results of the third analysis show that an expansion of high-tech offshoring activities by OECD multinationals (MNEs) is not associated with any reduction in employment at home.

The Ecumenical movement and the making of the European Community

The European Community has largely been considered a predominantly secular project, bringing together the economic and political realms, while failing to mobilise the public voice and imagination of churchmen and the faithful. Drawing on a wide range of archival sources, this is the first study to assess the political history of religious dialogue in the European Community. It challenges the widespread perception that churches started to engage with European institutions only after the 1979 elections to the European Parliament, by detailing close relations between churchmen and high-ranking officials in European institutions, immediately after the 1950 Schuman Declaration. Lucian N. Leustean demonstrates that Cold War divisions between East and West, and the very nature of the ecumenical movement, had a direct impact on the ways in which churches approached the European Community. He brings to light events and issues which have not previously been examined, such as the response of churches to the Schuman Plan, and the political mobilisation of church representations in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg. Leustean argues that the concept of a 'united Europe' has been impeded by competing national differences between religious and political institutions, having a long-standing legacy on the making of a fragmented European Community.

State–society relations in a dynamic framework:the case of the Far East and Sub-Saharan Africa

According to the textbook approach, the developmental states of the Far East have been considered as strong and autonomous entities. Although their bureaucratic elites have remained isolated from direct pressures stemming from society, the state capacity has also been utilised in order to allocate resources in the interest of the whole society. Yet, society – by and large –has remained weak and subordinated to the state elite. On the other hand, the general perception of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been just the opposite. The violent and permanent conflict amongst rent-seeking groups for influence and authority over resources has culminated in a situation where states have become extremely weak and fragmented, while society – depending on the capacity of competing groups for mobilising resources to organise themselves mostly on a regional or local level (resulting in local petty kingdoms) – has never had the chance to evolve as a strong player. State failure in the literature, therefore, – in the context of SSA – refers not just to a weak and captured state but also to a non-functioning, and sometimes even non-existent society, too. Recently, however, the driving forces of globalisation might have triggered serious changes in the above described status quo. Accordingly, our hypothesis is the following: globalisation, especially the dynamic changes of technology, capital and communication have made the simplistic “strong state–weak society” (in Asia) and “weak state–weak society” (in Africa) categorisation somewhat obsolete. While our comparative study has a strong emphasis on the empirical scrutiny of trying to uncover the dynamics of changes in state–society relations in the two chosen regions both qualitatively and quantitatively, it also aims at complementing the meaning and essence of the concepts and methodology of stateness, state capacity and state-society relations, the well-known building blocks of the seminal works of Evans (1995), Leftwich (1995), Migdal (1988) or Myrdal (1968).

Contemporary Europe

The second edition of this very successful textbook updates and expands its coverage of the many facets of life in Europe in the new century. It retains the strengths of the first edition with its focus on both East and West but expands its coverage of the themes of convergence and divergence, and includes a new chapter on the European Economy.

Lessons for African economies from Irish and East Asian industry policy

When comparisons in terms of industrial policy lessons to be learned have taken place, it has tended to be solely vis-a-vis the ‘development state’ East Asian experience. This paper broadens the analysis and considers lessons which African countries can learn from other so-called ‘tiger’ economies including Ireland and the East and South Asian countries. We recognise that the latter are indeed clearly significant as many African countries at the time of independence had economic structures and levels of income quite similar to East Asian countries, yet have grown at vastly different rates since then. Exploring why this has been the case can thus offer important insights into possibilities for industrial policy. Yet this comes with some health warnings over East Asian experience. We suggest that another important contribution can come by looking at the Irish example, given its emphasis on corporatism rather than simply relying on state direction in the operation of industrial policy. The Irish model is also more democratic in some senses and has protected workers’ rights during the development process in contrast to the often highly dirigisite East Asian model. Overall we suggest that some immediate actions are needed, notably with regard to the financial system in small African economies. Without such changes, a poorly functioning financial system will continue to keep investment at low levels. In relation to the small size of the African economies, the paper recommends regional integration and sufficient overseas development assistance (ODA) for infrastructural development. It is also critical to note that the various small African economies each face their own industrial and economic development challenges, and that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not appropriate; rather the key is to tailor policies and systems to the unique opportunities and development challenges in each African country.