The effect of past earnings and dividend patterns on the information content of dividends when earnings are reduced

This study pursues two objectives: first, to provide evidence on the information content of dividend policy, conditional on past earnings and dividend patterns prior to an annual earnings decline; second, to examine the effect of the magnitude of low earnings realizations on dividend policy when firms have more-or-less established dividend payouts. The information content of dividend policy for firms that incur earnings reductions following long patterns of positive earnings and dividends has been examined (DeAngelo et al., 1992, 1996; Charitou, 2000). No research has examined the association between the informativeness of dividend policy changes in the event of an earnings drop, relative to varying patterns of past earnings and dividends. Our dataset consists of 4,873 U.S. firm-year observations over the period 1986-2005. Our evidence supports the hypotheses that, among earnings-reducing or loss firms, longer patterns of past earnings and dividends: (a) strengthen the information conveyed by dividends regarding future earnings, and (b) enhance the role of the magnitude of low earnings realizations in explaining dividend policy decisions, in that earnings hold more information content that explains the likelihood of dividend cuts the longer the past earnings and dividend patterns. Both results stem from the stylized facts that managers aim to maintain consistency with respect to historic payout policy, being reluctant to proceed with dividend reductions, and that this reluctance is higher the more established is the historic payout policy. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 Accounting Foundation, The University of Sydney.

Losses, dividend reductions, and market reaction associated with past earnings and dividends patterns

This paper examines investors' reactions to dividend reductions or omissions conditional on past earnings and dividend patterns for a sample of eighty-two U.S. firms that incurred an annual loss. We document that the market reaction for firms with long patterns of past earnings and dividend payouts is significantly more negative than for firms with lessestablished past earnings and dividends records. Our results can be explained by the following line of reasoning. First, consistent with DeAngelo, DeAngelo, and Skinner (1992), a loss following a long stream of earnings and dividend payments represents an unreliable indicator of future earnings. Thus, established firms have higher loss reliability than less-established firms. Second, because current earnings and dividend policy are a substitute source of means of forecasting future earnings, lower loss reliability increases the information content of dividend reductions. Therefore, given the presence of a loss, the longer the stream of prior earnings and dividend payments, (1) the lower the loss reliability and (2) the more reliably dividend cuts are perceived as an indication that earnings difficulties will persist in the future.

Prevalence and risk factors for mild and high-frequency bilateral sensorineural hearing loss at age 11 years old:a UK prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess prevalence and risk factors for mild/high-frequency bilateral sensorineural hearing loss within a UK population of children at age 11 years. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort study. STUDY SAMPLE: Repeat hearing thresholds were measured in 5032 children, as part of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) at age 7, 9, and 11 years. Pregnancy, birth, and early medical history were obtained prospectively through parental questionnaires and medical records. RESULTS: Twenty children had mild and seven had high-frequency bilateral sensorineural hearing loss, giving a combined prevalence of 0.5% (95% CI 0.4-0.8%). These children were more likely than the rest of the study sample to have been admitted to hospital at 6-18 months (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.00-7.30). Parents of these children were more likely to have suspected a hearing problem when the children were 3 years old (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.05-5.60). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first UK prospective cohort study to investigate the prevalence of mild and high-frequency hearing loss. This study, which has the advantage of a large sample size and repeat hearing measures over a four year period, reports lower prevalence values than US cross-sectional studies.

Surface acoustic wave devices with low loss and high frequency operation

This thesis describes an industrial research project carried out in collaboration with STC Components, Harlow, Essex. Technical and market trends in the use of surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices are reviewed. As a result, three areas not previously addressed by STC were identified: lower insertion loss designs, higher operating frequencies and improved temperature dependent stability. A review of the temperature performance of alternative lower insertion loss designs,shows that greater use could be made of the on-site quartz growing plant. Data is presented for quartz cuts in the ST-AT range. This data is used to modify the temperature performance of a SAW filter. Several recently identified quartz orientations have been tested. These are SST, LST and X33. Problems associated with each cut are described and devices demonstrated. LST quartz, although sensitive to accuracy of cut, is shown to have an improved temperature coefficient over the normal ST orientation. Results show that its use is restricted due to insertion loss variations with temperature. Effects associated with split-finger transducers on LST-quartz are described. Two low-loss options are studied, coupled resonator filters for very narrow bandwidth applications and single phase unidirectional transducers (SPUDT) for fractional bandwidths up to about 1%. Both designs can be implemented with one quarter wavelength transducer geometries at operating frequencies up to 1GHz. The SPUDT design utilised an existing impulse response model to provide analysis of ladder or rung transducers. A coupled resonator filter at 400MHz is demonstrated with a matched insertion loss of less than 3.5dB and bandwidth of 0.05%. A SPUDT device is designed as a re-timing filter for timing extraction in a long haul PCM transmission system. Filters operating at 565MHz are demonstrated with insertion losses of less than 6dB. This basic SPUDT design is extended to a maximally distributed version and demonstrated at 450MHz with 9.8dB insertion loss.

High level data fusion

We address the question of how to obtain effective fusion of identification information such that it is robust to the quality of this information. As well as technical issues data fusion is encumbered with a collection of (potentially confusing) practical considerations. These considerations are described during the early chapters in which a framework for data fusion is developed. Following this process of diversification it becomes clear that the original question is not well posed and requires more precise specification. We use the framework to focus on some of the technical issues relevant to the question being addressed. We show that fusion of hard decisions through use of an adaptive version of the maximum a posteriori decision rule yields acceptable performance. Better performance is possible using probability level fusion as long as the probabilities are accurate. Of particular interest is the prevalence of overconfidence and the effect it has on fused performance. The production of accurate probabilities from poor quality data forms the latter part of the thesis. Two approaches are taken. Firstly the probabilities may be moderated at source (either analytically or numerically). Secondly, the probabilities may be transformed at the fusion centre. In each case an improvement in fused performance is demonstrated. We therefore conclude that in order to obtain robust fusion care should be taken to model the probabilities accurately; either at the source or centrally.

Feed-forward neural networks and topographic mappings for exploratory data analysis

A recent novel approach to the visualisation and analysis of datasets, and one which is particularly applicable to those of a high dimension, is discussed in the context of real applications. A feed-forward neural network is utilised to effect a topographic, structure-preserving, dimension-reducing transformation of the data, with an additional facility to incorporate different degrees of associated subjective information. The properties of this transformation are illustrated on synthetic and real datasets, including the 1992 UK Research Assessment Exercise for funding in higher education. The method is compared and contrasted to established techniques for feature extraction, and related to topographic mappings, the Sammon projection and the statistical field of multidimensional scaling.

Impaired brainstem and thalamic high-frequency oscillatory EEG activity in migraine between attacks

INTRODUCTION: We investigated whether interictal thalamic dysfunction in migraine without aura (MO) patients is a primary determinant or the expression of its functional disconnection from proximal or distal areas along the somatosensory pathway. METHODS: Twenty MO patients and twenty healthy volunteers (HVs) underwent an electroencephalographic (EEG) recording during electrical stimulation of the median nerve at the wrist. We used the functional source separation algorithm to extract four functionally constrained nodes (brainstem, thalamus, primary sensory radial, and primary sensory motor tangential parietal sources) along the somatosensory pathway. Two digital filters (1-400 Hz and 450-750 Hz) were applied in order to extract low- (LFO) and high- frequency (HFO) oscillatory activity from the broadband signal. RESULTS: Compared to HVs, patients presented significantly lower brainstem (BS) and thalamic (Th) HFO activation bilaterally. No difference between the two cortical HFO as well as in LFO peak activations between the two groups was seen. The age of onset of the headache was positively correlated with HFO power in the right brainstem and thalamus. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for complex dysfunction of brainstem and thalamocortical networks under the control of genetic factors that might act by modulating the severity of migraine phenotype.

A principled approach to interactive hierarchical non-linear visualization of high-dimensional data

Hierarchical visualization systems are desirable because a single two-dimensional visualization plot may not be sufficient to capture all of the interesting aspects of complex high-dimensional data sets. We extend an existing locally linear hierarchical visualization system PhiVis [1] in several directions: bf(1) we allow for em non-linear projection manifolds (the basic building block is the Generative Topographic Mapping -- GTM), bf(2) we introduce a general formulation of hierarchical probabilistic models consisting of local probabilistic models organized in a hierarchical tree, bf(3) we describe folding patterns of low-dimensional projection manifold in high-dimensional data space by computing and visualizing the manifold's local directional curvatures. Quantities such as magnification factors [3] and directional curvatures are helpful for understanding the layout of the nonlinear projection manifold in the data space and for further refinement of the hierarchical visualization plot. Like PhiVis, our system is statistically principled and is built interactively in a top-down fashion using the EM algorithm. We demonstrate the visualization system principle of the approach on a complex 12-dimensional data set and mention possible applications in the pharmaceutical industry.

Board composition, ownership structure and dividend policies in an emerging market: further evidence from CASE 50

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine dividend policies in an emerging capital market, in a country undergoing a transitional period. Design/methodology/approach – Using pooled cross-sectional observations from the top 50 listed Egyptian firms between 2003 and 2005, this study examines the effect of board of directors’ composition and ownership structure on dividend policies in Egypt. Findings – It is found that there is a significant positive association between institutional ownership and firm performance, and both dividend decision and payout ratio. The results confirm that firms with a higher return on equity and a higher institutional ownership distribute higher levels of dividend. No significant association was found between board composition and dividend decisions or ratios. Originality/value – This study provides additional evidence of the applicability of the signalling model in the emerging market of Egypt. It was found that despite the high institutional ownership and the closely held nature of the firms, which imply lower agency costs, the payment of higher dividend was considered necessary to attract capital during this transitional period.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Pharmacologically induced and stimulus evoked rhythmic neuronal oscillatory activity in the primary motor cortex in vitro

Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with enhanced synchronization of neuronal network activity in the beta (15-30 Hz) frequency band across several nuclei of the basal ganglia (BG). Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) appears to reduce this pathological oscillation, thereby alleviating PD symptoms. However, direct stimulation of primary motor cortex (M1) has recently been shown to be effective in reducing symptoms in PD, suggesting a role for cortex in patterning pathological rhythms. Here, we examine the properties of M1 network oscillations in coronal slices taken from rat brain. Oscillations in the high beta frequency range (layer 5, 27.8 +/- 1.1 Hz, n=6) were elicited by co-application of the glutamate receptor agonist kainic acid (400 nM) and muscarinic receptor agonist carbachol (50 mu M). Dual extracellular recordings, local application of tetrodotoxin and recordings in M1 micro-sections indicate that the activity originates within deep layers V/VI. Beta oscillations were unaffected by specific AMPA receptor blockade, abolished by the GABA type A receptor (GABAAR) antagonist picrotoxin and the gap-junction blocker carbenoxolone, and modulated by pentobarbital and zolpidem indicating dependence on networks of GABAergic interneurons and electrical coupling. High frequency stimulation (HFS) at 125 Hz in superficial layers, designed to mimic transdural/transcranial stimulation, generated gamma oscillations in layers 11 and V (incidence 95%, 69.2 +/- 7.3 Hz, n=17) with very fast oscillatory components (VFO; 100-250 Hz). Stimulation at 4 Hz, however, preferentially promoted theta activity (incidence 62.5%, 5.1 +/- 0.6 Hz, n=15) that effected strong amplitude modulation of ongoing beta activity. Stimulation at 20 Hz evoked mixed theta and gamma responses. These data suggest that within M1, evoked theta, gamma and fast oscillations may coexist with and in some cases modulate pharmacologically induced beta oscillations.

Estimation of functional connectivity from electromagnetic signals and the amount of empirical data required

An increasing number of neuroimaging studies are concerned with the identification of interactions or statistical dependencies between brain areas. Dependencies between the activities of different brain regions can be quantified with functional connectivity measures such as the cross-correlation coefficient. An important factor limiting the accuracy of such measures is the amount of empirical data available. For event-related protocols, the amount of data also affects the temporal resolution of the analysis. We use analytical expressions to calculate the amount of empirical data needed to establish whether a certain level of dependency is significant when the time series are autocorrelated, as is the case for biological signals. These analytical results are then contrasted with estimates from simulations based on real data recorded with magnetoencephalography during a resting-state paradigm and during the presentation of visual stimuli. Results indicate that, for broadband signals, 50-100 s of data is required to detect a true underlying cross-correlations coefficient of 0.05. This corresponds to a resolution of a few hundred milliseconds for typical event-related recordings. The required time window increases for narrow band signals as frequency decreases. For instance, approximately 3 times as much data is necessary for signals in the alpha band. Important implications can be derived for the design and interpretation of experiments to characterize weak interactions, which are potentially important for brain processing.

High frequency sensing interrogation system using fiber Bragg grating based microwave photonic filtering

A high frequency sensing interrogation system by using fiber Bragg grating based microwave photonic filtering is proposed, in which the wavelength measurement sensitivity is proportional to the RF modulation frequency applied to the optical signal.

High-frequency fiber Bragg grating sensing interrogation system using Sagnac-loop-based microwave photonic filtering

A novel high-frequency fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensing interrogation system by using fiber Sagnac-loop-based microwave photonic filtering is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. By adopting the microwave photonic filtering, the wavelength shift of sensing FBG can be converted into amplitude variation of the modulated electronic radio-frequency (RF) signal. In the experiment, the strain applied onto the sensing FBG has been demodulated by measuring the intensity of the recovered RF signal, and by modulating the RF signal with different frequencies, different interrogation sensitivities can be achieved.