Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Testing term structure estimation methods:evidence from the UK STRIPs market

Prices and yields of UK government zero-coupon bonds are used to test alternative yield curve estimation models. Zero-coupon bonds permit a more pure comparison, as the models are providing only the interpolation service and also not making estimation feasible. It is found that better yield curves estimates are obtained by fitting to the yield curve directly rather than fitting first to the discount function. A simple procedure to set the smoothness of the fitted curves is developed, and a positive relationship between oversmoothness and the fitting error is identified. A cubic spline function fitted directly to the yield curve provides the best overall balance of fitting error and smoothness, both along the yield curve and within local maturity regions.

Energy saving and solar electricity in fan-ventilated greenhouses

Greenhouse cultivation is an energy intensive process therefore it is worthwhile to introduce energy saving measures and alternative energy sources. Here we show that there is scope for energy saving in fan ventilated greenhouses. Measurements of electricity usage as a function of fan speed have been performed for two models of 1.25 m diameter greenhouse fans and compared to theoretical values. Reducing the speed can cut the energy usage per volume of air moved by more than 70%. To minimize the capital cost of low-speed operation, a cooled greenhouse has been built in which the fan speed responds to sunlight such that full speed is reached only around noon. The energy saving is about 40% compared to constant speed operation. Direct operation of fans from solar-photovoltaic modules is also viable as shown from experiments with a fan driven by a brushless DC motor. On comparing the Net Present Value costs of the different systems over a 10 year amortization period (with and without a carbon tax to represent environmental costs) we find that sunlight-controlled system saves money under all assumptions about taxation and discount rates. The solar-powered system, however, is only profitable for very low discount rates, due to the high initial capital costs. Nonetheless this system could be of interest for its reliability in developing countries where mains electricity is intermittent. We recommend that greenhouse fan manufacturers improve the availability of energy-saving designs such as those described here.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

Customer loyalty among daily disposable contact lens wearers

Background: Optometric practices offer contact lenses as cash sale items or as part of monthly payment plans. With the contact lens market becoming increasingly competitive, patients are opting to purchase lenses from supermarkets and Internet suppliers. Monthly payment plans are often implemented to improve loyalty. This study aimed to compare behavioural loyalty between monthly payment plan members and non-members. Methods: BBR Optometry Ltd offers a monthly payment plan (Eyelife™) to their contact lens wearers. A retrospective audit of 38 Eyelife™ members (mean. ±. SD: 42.7. ±. 15.0 years) and 30 non-members (mean. ±. SD: 40.8. ±. 16.7 years) was conducted. Revenue and profits generated, service uptake and product sales between the two groups were compared over a fixed period of 18 months. Results: Eyelife™ members generated significantly higher professional fee revenue ( P<. 0.001), £153.96 compared to £83.50, and profits ( P<. 0.001). Eyelife™ members had a higher uptake of eye examinations ( P<. 0.001). The 2 groups demonstrated no significant difference in spectacle sales by volume ( P= 0.790) or value ( P= 0.369). There were also no significant differences in contact lens revenue ( P= 0.337), although Eyelife™ members did receive a discount. The Eyelife™ group incurred higher contact lens costs ( P= 0.037), due to a greater volume of contact lens purchases, 986 units compared to 582. Conclusions: Monthly payment plans improve loyalty among contact lens wearers, particularly service uptake and volume of lens purchases. Additionally the greater professional fees generated, render monthly payment plans an attractive business model and practice builder.

Debazzled:a blue and black ship, dressed to deceive

The blue and black dress that “melted the Internet” is thought to have done so because its perceived color depended on people using different prior assumptions about discounting the illuminant. However, this is not the first monochromatic object to have confused the public. For a brief period during WWI, RMS Mauretania was dressed in (dazzle) camouflage shades of blue and black/grey, yet she is sometimes depicted by artists, modelers, and historians in a much showier dress of red, blue, yellow, green, and black. I raise the possibility that this originates from a case of public deception deriving from the momentary misperception of a playful artist who neglected to discount the illuminant, propagating the most (perhaps only) successful application of dazzle camouflage known.

Discretion in accounting for pensions under IAS 19:using the ‘magic telescope’?

We use a panel data set of UK-listed companies over the period 2005–2009 to analyse the actuarial assumptions used to value pension plan liabilities under IAS 19. The valuation process requires companies to make assumptions about financial and demographic variables, notably discount rate, price inflation, salary inflation and mortality/life expectancy of plan members/beneficiaries. We use regression analysis to analyse the relationships between these key assumptions (except mortality, where disclosures are limited) and company-specific factors such as the pension plan funding position and duration of pension liabilities. We find evidence of selective ‘management’ of the three assumptions investigated, although the nature of this appears to differ from the findings of US authors. We conclude that IAS 19 does not prevent the use of managerial discretion, particularly by companies whose pension plan funding positions are weak, thereby reducing the representational faithfulness of the reported pension figures. We also highlight that the degree of discretion used reflects the extent to which IAS 19 defines how the assumptions are to be determined. We therefore suggest that companies should be encouraged to justify more explicitly their choice of assumptions.