Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Developments and prospects of freight railway transport in Northern Germany:a Delphi survey

Despite the fact that Germany has a well expanded traffic infrastructure, it confronts a strong growth in freight volumes and it is very likely that in the forthcoming years will not be able to reasonably cope with the increasing demand. The aim of this paper is to explore the developments of the transport sector, railways in particular, in North Germany. More specific, the paper explores whether the railway network could contribute to improved traffic development in North Germany and also whether or not the existing logistics practices are effective enough to cope with the traffic problems in the region. The research based on the Delphi technique, collected, analysed and summarised the opinions of a group of experts in the aforementioned issues. Results indicate that railways could represent the solution to the forecasted growing freight volumes in the next years. In spite of continuous efforts undertaken by the politics and the economy, the existing logistics and freight traffic concepts are not sufficient, financing is too scarce, while emerging issues like sustainability, environment protection and working conditions are taken into little consideration. Copyright © 2014 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Directional mobility of debt ratings

In this paper we describe a method to decompose a well-known measure of debt ratings mobility into it's directional components. We show, using sovereign debt ratings as an example, that this directional decomposition allows us to better understand the underlying characteristics of debt ratings migration and, for the case of the data set used, that the standard Markov chain model is not homogeneous in either the time or cross-sectional dimensions. We find that the directional decomposition also allows us to sign the change in quality of debt over time and across sub-groups of the population.

An examination of the development of LTL hub-and-spoke freight distribution systems

Over recent years, hub-and-spoke distribution techniques have attracted widespread research attention. Despite there being a growing body of literature in this area there is less focus on the spoke-terminal element of the hub-and-spoke system as being a key component in the overall service received by the end-user. Current literature is highly geared towards discussing bulk optimization of freight units rather than to the more discrete and individualistic profile characteristics of shared-user Less-than-truckload (LTL) freight. In this paper, a literature review is presented to review the role hub-and-spoke systems play in meeting multi-profile customer demands, particularly in developing sectors with more sophisticated needs, such as retail. The paper also looks at the use of simulation technology as a suitable tool for analyzing spoke-terminal operations within developing hub-and spoke systems.

The effects of coloured light filter overlays on reading rates in age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To determine the effect of coloured light filter overlays on reading rates for people with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Method: Using a prospective clinical trial design, we examined the null hypothesis that coloured light filter overlays do not improve reading rates in AMD when compared to a clear filter. Reading rates for 12 subjects with non-exudative AMD, associated with a relative scotoma and central fixation (mean age 81 years, SD 5.07 years) were determined using the Rate of Reading Test® (printed, nonsense, lower case sans serif, stationary text) with 10 different, coloured light filter overlays (Intuitive Overlays®; figures in brackets are percentage transmission values); rose (78%), pink (78%), purple (67%), aqua (81%), blue (74%), lime-green (86%), mint-green (85%), yellow (93%), orange (83%) and grey (71%). A clear overlay (Roscolene # 00) (360 cdm-2) with 100% transmittance was used as a control. Results: ANOVA indicated that there was no statistically significant difference in reading rates with the coloured light filter overlays compared to the clear filter. Furthermore, chi-squared analysis indicated that the rose, purple and blue filters had a significantly poorer overall ranking in terms of reading rates compared to the other coloured and clear light filters. Conclusion: Coloured light filter overlays are unlikely to provide a clinically significant improvement in reading rates for people with non-exudative AMD associated with a relative scotoma and central fixation. Copyright © Acta Ophthalmol Scand 2004.

A simulation analysis of spoke-terminals operating in LTL Hub-and-Spoke freight distribution systems

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT The research presented in this thesis is concerned with Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) modelling as a method to facilitate logistical policy development within the UK Less-than-Truckload (LTL) freight distribution sector which has been typified by “Pallet Networks” operating on a hub-and-spoke philosophy. Current literature relating to LTL hub-and-spoke and cross-dock freight distribution systems traditionally examines a variety of network and hub design configurations. Each is consistent with classical notions of creating process efficiency, improving productivity, reducing costs and generally creating economies of scale through notions of bulk optimisation. Whilst there is a growing abundance of papers discussing both the network design and hub operational components mentioned above, there is a shortcoming in the overall analysis when it comes to discussing the “spoke-terminal” of hub-and-spoke freight distribution systems and their capabilities for handling the diverse and discrete customer profiles of freight that multi-user LTL hub-and-spoke networks typically handle over the “last-mile” of the delivery, in particular, a mix of retail and non-retail customers. A simulation study is undertaken to investigate the impact on operational performance when the current combined spoke-terminal delivery tours are separated by ‘profile-type’ (i.e. retail or nonretail). The results indicate that a potential improvement in delivery performance can be made by separating retail and non-retail delivery runs at the spoke-terminal and that dedicated retail and non-retail delivery tours could be adopted in order to improve customer delivery requirements and adapt hub-deployed policies. The study also leverages key operator experiences to highlight the main practical implementation challenges when integrating the observed simulation results into the real-world. The study concludes that DES be harnessed as an enabling device to develop a ‘guide policy’. This policy needs to be flexible and should be applied in stages, taking into account the growing retail-exposure.

Explaining turn of the year order flow imbalance

The paper provides evidence of a turn of the year effect in the order flow imbalance of both retail and institutional investors. In December there is net selling pressure which is reversed in January. We examine high frequency intraday order flow information and find that the changes in order flow imbalance between December and January are related to firm risk factors and characteristics. We find that retail order flow imbalances are associated with a wide range of risk characteristics including beta, illiquidity and unsystematic risk. Imbalances in institutional order flow are associated with only a small number of risk variables. We show that these order flow changes are important because risk premiums are elevated in January. Our results are robust to the effects of decimalization.

Macro determinants of FDI inflows to Japan:an analysis of source country characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis-specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market-seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Colour and luminance interactions in the visual perception of motion

We sought to determine the extent to which red–green, colour–opponent mechanisms in the human visual system play a role in the perception of drifting luminance–modulated targets. Contrast sensitivity for the directional discrimination of drifting luminance–modulated (yellow–black) test sinusoids was measured following adaptation to isoluminant red–green sinusoids drifting in either the same or opposite direction. When the test and adapt stimuli drifted in the same direction, large sensitivity losses were evident at all test temporal frequencies employed (1–16 Hz). The magnitude of the loss was independent of temporal frequency. When adapt and test stimuli drifted in opposing directions, large sensitivity losses were evident at lower temporal frequencies (1–4 Hz) and declined with increasing temporal frequency. Control studies showed that this temporal–frequency–dependent effect could not reflect the activity of achromatic units. Our results provide evidence that chromatic mechanisms contribute to the perception of luminance–modulated motion targets drifting at speeds of up to at least 32°s-1. We argue that such mechanisms most probably lie within a parvocellular–dominated cortical visual pathway, sensitive to both chromatic and luminance modulation, but only weakly selective for the direction of stimulus motion.

Type 2 diabetes:assessing the relative risks and benefits of glucose-lowering medications

The selection of appropriate pharmacologic therapy for any disease requires a careful assessment of benefit and risk. In the case of type 2 diabetes, this decision typically balances the benefits accrued from improved glycemic control with the risks inherent in glucose-lowering medications. This review is intended to assist therapeutic decision-making by carefully assessing the potential benefit from improved metabolic control relative to the potential risks of a wide array of currently prescribed glucose-lowering agents. Wherever possible, risks and benefits have been expressed in terms of absolute rates (events per 1000 patient-years) to facilitate cross-study comparisons. The review incorporates data from new studies (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation, Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes, and the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial), as well as safety issues associated with newer glucose-lowering medications. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous demultiplexing and clock recovery using a single electroabsorption modulator in a novel bi-directional configuration

A single electroabsorption modulator was used to demultiplex a 10 Gbit/s channel from a 40 Gbit/s OTDM data stream, whilst simultaneously recovering the 10 GHz electrical clock. This was achieved using a new bi-directional operation of the EA modulator, combined with a simple phase-locked loop feedback circuit. Excellent system performance was achieved, indicating that operation up to and beyond 100 Gbit/s is possible using current technology.

A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Oxidational wear of low alloy steel in gases other than air

A pin on disc wear machine has been used to study the oxidational wear of low alloy steel in a series of experiments which were carried out under dry wear sliding conditions at range of loads from 11.28 to 49.05 N and three sliding speeds of 2 m/s, 3.5 m/s and 5 m/s, in atmosphere of air, Ar, CO2, 100% O2, 20% O2-80% Ar and 2% O2-98% Ar. Also, the experiments were conducted to study frictional force, surface and contact temperatures and surface parameters of the wearing pins. The wear debris was examined using x-ray diffraction technique for the identification of compounds produced by the wear process. Scanning electron microscopy was employed to study the topographical features of worn pins and to measure the thickness of the oxide films. Microhardness tests were carried out to investigate the influence of the sub-surface microhardness in tribological conditions. Under all loads, speeds and atmospheres parabolic oxidation growth was observed on worn surfaces, although such growth is dependent on the concentration of oxygen in the atmospheres employed. These atmospheres are shown to influence wear rate and coefficient of friction with change in applied load. The nature of the atmosphere also has influence on surface and contact temperatures as determined from heat flow analysis. Unlubricated wear debris was found to be a mixture of αFe2O3, Fe3O4 and FeO oxide. A model has been proposed for tribo-oxide growth demonstrating the importance of diffusion rate and oxygen partial pressure, in the oxidation processes and thus in determination of wear rates.