Disruption prediction at JET [Joint European Torus]

The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus), Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. Ollrien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as ?i and q? with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of assigning a disruption probability to every plasma input pattern. The second method determines the novelty of an input pattern by calculating the probability density distribution of successful plasma patterns that have been run at JET. The density distribution is represented as a mixture distribution, and its parameters arc determined using the Expectation-Maximisation method. If the dataset, used to determine the distribution parameters, covers sufficiently well the machine operational space. Then, the patterns flagged as novel can be regarded as patterns belonging to a disrupting plasma. Together with these methods, a network has been designed to predict the vertical forces, that a disruption can cause, in order to avoid that too dangerous plasma configurations are run. This network can be run before the pulse using the pre-programmed plasma configuration or on line becoming a tool that allows to stop dangerous plasma configuration. All these methods have been implemented in real time on a dual Pentium Pro based machine. The Disruption Prediction and Prevention System has shown that internal plasma parameters can be determined on-line with a good accuracy. Also the disruption detection algorithms showed promising results considering the fact that JET is an experimental machine where always new plasma configurations are tested trying to improve its performances.

A novel detection method for determining a surgeon's fatigue and hand tremor

The thesis presents new methodology and algorithms that can be used to analyse and measure the hand tremor and fatigue of surgeons while performing surgery. This will assist them in deriving useful information about their fatigue levels, and make them aware of the changes in their tool point accuracies. This thesis proposes that muscular changes of surgeons, which occur through a day of operating, can be monitored using Electromyography (EMG) signals. The multi-channel EMG signals are measured at different muscles in the upper arm of surgeons. The dependence of EMG signals has been examined to test the hypothesis that EMG signals are coupled with and dependent on each other. The results demonstrated that EMG signals collected from different channels while mimicking an operating posture are independent. Consequently, single channel fatigue analysis has been performed. In measuring hand tremor, a new method for determining the maximum tremor amplitude using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new technique to detrend acceleration signals using Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm were introduced. This tremor determination method is more representative for surgeons and it is suggested as an alternative fatigue measure. This was combined with the complexity analysis method, and applied to surgically captured data to determine if operating has an effect on a surgeon’s fatigue and tremor levels. It was found that surgical tremor and fatigue are developed throughout a day of operating and that this could be determined based solely on their initial values. Finally, several Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural networks were evaluated. The results suggest that it is possible to monitor surgeon tremor variations during surgery from their EMG fatigue measurements.

Near-ML detection for MDL-impaired few-mode fiber transmission

Few-mode fiber transmission systems are typically impaired by mode-dependent loss (MDL). In an MDL-impaired link, maximum-likelihood (ML) detection yields a significant advantage in system performance compared to linear equalizers, such as zero-forcing and minimum-mean square error equalizers. However, the computational effort of the ML detection increases exponentially with the number of modes and the cardinality of the constellation. We present two methods that allow for near-ML performance without being afflicted with the enormous computational complexity of ML detection: improved reduced-search ML detection and sphere decoding. Both algorithms are tested regarding their performance and computational complexity in simulations of three and six spatial modes with QPSK and 16QAM constellations.

Online trendy topics detection in microblogs with selective user monitoring under cost constraints

As microblog services such as Twitter become a fast and convenient communication approach, identification of trendy topics in microblog services has great academic and business value. However detecting trendy topics is very challenging due to huge number of users and short-text posts in microblog diffusion networks. In this paper we introduce a trendy topics detection system under computation and communication resource constraints. In stark contrast to retrieving and processing the whole microblog contents, we develop an idea of selecting a small set of microblog users and processing their posts to achieve an overall acceptable trendy topic coverage, without exceeding resource budget for detection. We formulate the selection operation of these subset users as mixed-integer optimization problems, and develop heuristic algorithms to compute their approximate solutions. The proposed system is evaluated with real-time test data retrieved from Sina Weibo, the dominant microblog service provider in China. It's shown that by monitoring 500 out of 1.6 million microblog users and tracking their microposts (about 15,000 daily) with our system, nearly 65% trendy topics can be detected, while on average 5 hours earlier before they appear in Sina Weibo official trends.

Cost-effective node monitoring for online hot event detection in sina weibo microblogging

We propose a cost-effective hot event detection system over Sina Weibo platform, currently the dominant microblogging service provider in China. The problem of finding a proper subset of microbloggers under resource constraints is formulated as a mixed-integer problem for which heuristic algorithms are developed to compute approximate solution. Preliminary results show that by tracking about 500 out of 1.6 million candidate microbloggers and processing 15,000 microposts daily, 62% of the hot events can be detected five hours on average earlier than they are published by Weibo.