The design and piloting of an eBusiness design studio

This paper describes the establishment and early use of an eBusiness Design Studio in Aston Business School at Aston University which is located in Birmingham in the UK. It was originally conceived as an R&D aid as much as a teaching resource. However the bulk of its use to date has been in the support of Masters level modules (courses) and this description will focus on that application in the first instance. We have less experience of its use in an R&D context but we will make some preliminary comments on this in a later section.

Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

A Generic model for the design and analysis of production systems

This dissertation studies the process of operations systems design within the context of the manufacturing organization. Using the DRAMA (Design Routine for Adopting Modular Assembly) model as developed by a team from the IDOM Research Unit at Aston University as a starting point, the research employed empirically based fieldwork and a survey to investigate the process of production systems design and implementation within four UK manufacturing industries: electronics assembly, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and carpet manufacturing. The intention was to validate the basic DRAMA model as a framework for research enquiry within the electronics industry, where the initial IDOM work was conducted, and then to test its generic applicability, further developing the model where appropriate, within the other industries selected. The thesis contains a review of production systems design theory and practice prior to presenting thirteen industrial case studies of production systems design from the four industry sectors. The results and analysis of the postal survey into production systems design are then presented. The strategic decisions of manufacturing and their relationship to production systems design, and the detailed process of production systems design and operation are then discussed. These analyses are used to develop the generic model of production systems design entitled DRAMA II (Decision Rules for Analysing Manufacturing Activities). The model contains three main constituent parts: the basic DRAMA model, the extended DRAMA II model showing the imperatives and relationships within the design process, and a benchmark generic approach for the design and analysis of each component in the design process. DRAMA II is primarily intended for use by researchers as an analytical framework of enquiry, but is also seen as having application for manufacturing practitioners.

A computational model of intonation for yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis:design and analysis

In this paper we present the design and analysis of an intonation model for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications using a combination of Relational Tree (RT) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) technologies. The model is demonstrated using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. In the proposed intonation model, phonological information extracted from text is converted into an RT. RT is a sophisticated data structure that represents the peaks and valleys as well as the spatial structure of a waveform symbolically in the form of trees. An initial approximation to the RT, called Skeletal Tree (ST), is first generated algorithmically. The exact numerical values of the peaks and valleys on the ST is then computed using FL. Quantitative analysis of the result gives RMSE of 0.56 and 0.71 for peak and valley respectively. Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) of 9.5 and 6.8, on a scale of 1 - -10, was obtained for intelligibility and naturalness respectively.

Early design verification of complex assembly variability using a hybrid - model based and physical testing - methodology

Design verification in the digital domain, using model-based principles, is a key research objective to address the industrial requirement for reduced physical testing and prototyping. For complex assemblies, the verification of design and the associated production methods is currently fragmented, prolonged and sub-optimal, as it uses digital and physical verification stages that are deployed in a sequential manner using multiple systems. This paper describes a novel, hybrid design verification methodology that integrates model-based variability analysis with measurement data of assemblies, in order to reduce simulation uncertainty and allow early design verification from the perspective of satisfying key assembly criteria.

Enabling long journeys in electric vehicles:design and demonstration of an infrastructure location model

This research develops a methodology and model formulation which suggests locations for rapid chargers to help assist infrastructure development and enable greater battery electric vehicle (BEV) usage. The model considers the likely travel patterns of BEVs and their subsequent charging demands across a large road network, where no prior candidate site information is required. Using a GIS-based methodology, polygons are constructed which represent the charging demand zones for particular routes across a real-world road network. The use of polygons allows the maximum number of charging combinations to be considered whilst limiting the input intensity needed for the model. Further polygons are added to represent deviation possibilities, meaning that placement of charge points away from the shortest path is possible, given a penalty function. A validation of the model is carried out by assessing the expected demand at current rapid charging locations and comparing to recorded empirical usage data. Results suggest that the developed model provides a good approximation to real world observations, and that for the provision of charging, location matters. The model is also implemented where no prior candidate site information is required. As such, locations are chosen based on the weighted overlay between several different routes where BEV journeys may be expected. In doing so many locations, or types of locations, could be compared against one another and then analysed in relation to siting practicalities, such as cost, land permission and infrastructure availability. Results show that efficient facility location, given numerous siting possibilities across a large road network can be achieved. Slight improvements to the standard greedy adding technique are made by adding combination weightings which aim to reward important long distance routes that require more than one charge to complete.