On the relationship between Bayesian error bars and the input data density

We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

Statistical mechanics of low-density parity check error-correcting codes over Galois fields

A variation of low-density parity check (LDPC) error-correcting codes defined over Galois fields (GF(q)) is investigated using statistical physics. A code of this type is characterised by a sparse random parity check matrix composed of C non-zero elements per column. We examine the dependence of the code performance on the value of q, for finite and infinite C values, both in terms of the thermodynamical transition point and the practical decoding phase characterised by the existence of a unique (ferromagnetic) solution. We find different q-dependence in the cases of C = 2 and C ≥ 3; the analytical solutions are in agreement with simulation results, providing a quantitative measure to the improvement in performance obtained using non-binary alphabets.

Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.