On the relationship between Bayesian error bars and the input data density

We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

Adaptive time synchronization and frequency offset estimation for CO-OFDM

We propose a robust adaptive time synchronization and frequency offset estimation method for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) systems by applying electrical dispersion pre-compensation (pre-EDC) to the pilot symbol. This technique effectively eliminates the timing error due to the fiber chromatic dispersion, thus increasing significantly the accuracy of the frequency offset estimation process and improving the overall system performance. In addition, a simple design of the pilot symbol is proposed for full-range frequency offset estimation. This pilot symbol can also be used to carry useful data to effectively reduce the overhead due to time synchronization by a factor of 2.

An upper bound on the Bayesian error bars for generalized linear regression

In the Bayesian framework, predictions for a regression problem are expressed in terms of a distribution of output values. The mode of this distribution corresponds to the most probable output, while the uncertainty associated with the predictions can conveniently be expressed in terms of error bars. In this paper we consider the evaluation of error bars in the context of the class of generalized linear regression models. We provide insights into the dependence of the error bars on the location of the data points and we derive an upper bound on the true error bars in terms of the contributions from individual data points which are themselves easily evaluated.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population

Background There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6–7 years and 12–13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6–7 years and 669 (60%) of 12–13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Updating finite element models using measured vibration data

The modelling of mechanical structures using finite element analysis has become an indispensable stage in the design of new components and products. Once the theoretical design has been optimised a prototype may be constructed and tested. What can the engineer do if the measured and theoretically predicted vibration characteristics of the structure are significantly different? This thesis considers the problems of changing the parameters of the finite element model to improve the correlation between a physical structure and its mathematical model. Two new methods are introduced to perform the systematic parameter updating. The first uses the measured modal model to derive the parameter values with the minimum variance. The user must provide estimates for the variance of the theoretical parameter values and the measured data. Previous authors using similar methods have assumed that the estimated parameters and measured modal properties are statistically independent. This will generally be the case during the first iteration but will not be the case subsequently. The second method updates the parameters directly from the frequency response functions. The order of the finite element model of the structure is reduced as a function of the unknown parameters. A method related to a weighted equation error algorithm is used to update the parameters. After each iteration the weighting changes so that on convergence the output error is minimised. The suggested methods are extensively tested using simulated data. An H frame is then used to demonstrate the algorithms on a physical structure.

1220km propagation of 40Gbit/s single channel RZ data over dispersion managed standard (non-dispersion shifted) fibre

Error free propagation of a single polarisation optical time division multiplexed 40 Gbit/s dispersion managed pulsed data stream over dispersion (non-shifted) fibre. This distance is twice the previous record at this data rate.

Drop and insert multiplexing with simultaneous clock recovery using an electroabsorption modulator

A three-node optical time-division multiplexing (OTDM) network is demonstrated that utilizes electroabsorption (EA) modulators as the core elements. Each node is self contained and performs its own clock recovery and synchronization. “Drop and insert” functionality is demonstrated for the first time with an EA modulator by completely removing a 10-Gb/s channel from a 40-Gb/s OTDM data stream. A different 10-Gb/s channel was subsequently inserted into the vacant time slot. Clock recovery is achieved by using an EA modulator in a novel bidirectional configuration. Bit-error-rate (BER) measurements are presented for each of the 10-Gb/s OTDM channels.

Minimum description length, regularisation and multi-modal data

Conventional feed forward Neural Networks have used the sum-of-squares cost function for training. A new cost function is presented here with a description length interpretation based on Rissanen's Minimum Description Length principle. It is a heuristic that has a rough interpretation as the number of data points fit by the model. Not concerned with finding optimal descriptions, the cost function prefers to form minimum descriptions in a naive way for computational convenience. The cost function is called the Naive Description Length cost function. Finding minimum description models will be shown to be closely related to the identification of clusters in the data. As a consequence the minimum of this cost function approximates the most probable mode of the data rather than the sum-of-squares cost function that approximates the mean. The new cost function is shown to provide information about the structure of the data. This is done by inspecting the dependence of the error to the amount of regularisation. This structure provides a method of selecting regularisation parameters as an alternative or supplement to Bayesian methods. The new cost function is tested on a number of multi-valued problems such as a simple inverse kinematics problem. It is also tested on a number of classification and regression problems. The mode-seeking property of this cost function is shown to improve prediction in time series problems. Description length principles are used in a similar fashion to derive a regulariser to control network complexity.

Nonlinearly regenerated long haul data transmission

This thesis experimentally examines the use of different techniques for optical fibre transmission over ultra long haul distances. Its format firstly examines the use of dispersion management as a means of achieving long haul communications. Secondly, examining the use concatenated NOLMs for DM autosoliton ultra long haul propagation, by comparing their performance with a generic system without NOLMs. Thirdly, timing jitter in concatenated NOLM system is examined and compared to the generic system and lastly issues of OTDM amplitude non-uniformity from channel to channel in a saturable absorber, specifically a NOLM, are raised. Transmission at a rate of 40Gbit/s is studied in an all-Raman amplified standard fibre link with amplifier spacing of the order of 80km. We demonstrate in this thesis that the detrimental effects associated with high power Raman amplification can be minimized by dispersion map optimization. As a result, a transmission distance of 1600 km (2000km including dispersion compensating fibre) has been achieved in standard single mode fibre. The use of concatenated NOLMs to provide a stable propagation regime has been proposed theoretically. In this thesis, the observation experimentally of autosoliton propagation is shown for the first time in a dispersion managed optical transmission system. The system is based on a strong dispersion map with large amplifier spacing. Operation at transmission rates of 10, 40 and 80Gbit/s is demonstrated. With an insertion of a stabilizing element to the NOLM, the transmission of a 10 and 20Gbit/s data stream was extended and demonstrated experimentally. Error-free propagation over 100 and 20 thousand kilometres has been achieved at 10 and 20Gbit/s respectively, with terrestrial amplifier spacing. The monitor of timing jitter is of importance to all optical systems. Evolution of timing jitter in a DM autosoliton system has been studied in this thesis and analyzed at bit ranges from 10Gbit/s to 80Gbit/s. Non-linear guiding by in-line regenerators considerably changes the dynamics of jitter accumulation. As transmission systems require higher data rates, the use of OTDM will become more prolific. The dynamics of switching and transmission of an optical signal comprising individual OTDM channels of unequal amplitudes in a dispersion-managed link with in-line non-linear fibre loop mirrors is investigated.

Source coded image data in the presence of channel errors

The growth and advances made in computer technology have led to the present interest in picture processing techniques. When considering image data compression the tendency is towards trans-form source coding of the image data. This method of source coding has reached a stage where very high reductions in the number of bits representing the data can be made while still preserving image fidelity. The point has thus been reached where channel errors need to be considered, as these will be inherent in any image comnunication system. The thesis first describes general source coding of images with the emphasis almost totally on transform coding. The transform technique adopted is the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) which becomes common to both transform coders. Hereafter the techniques of source coding differ substantially i.e. one tech­nique involves zonal coding, the other involves threshold coding. Having outlined the theory and methods of implementation of the two source coders, their performances are then assessed first in the absence, and then in the presence, of channel errors. These tests provide a foundation on which to base methods of protection against channel errors. Six different protection schemes are then proposed. Results obtained, from each particular, combined, source and channel error protection scheme, which are described in full are then presented. Comparisons are made between each scheme and indicate the best one to use given a particular channel error rate.

Transmission of image data over digital networks involving mobile terminals

There is a growing demand for data transmission over digital networks involving mobile terminals. An important class of data required for transmission over mobile terminals is image information such as street maps, floor plans and identikit images. This sort of transmission is of particular interest to the service industries such as the Police force, Fire brigade, medical services and other services. These services cannot be applied directly to mobile terminals because of the limited capacity of the mobile channels and the transmission errors caused by the multipath (Rayleigh) fading. In this research, transmission of line diagram images such as floor plans and street maps, over digital networks involving mobile terminals at transmission rates of 2400 bits/s and 4800 bits/s have been studied. A low bit-rate source encoding technique using geometric codes is found to be suitable to represent line diagram images. In geometric encoding, the amount of data required to represent or store the line diagram images is proportional to the image detail. Thus a simple line diagram image would require a small amount of data. To study the effect of transmission errors due to mobile channels on the transmitted images, error sources (error files), which represent mobile channels under different conditions, have been produced using channel modelling techniques. Satisfactory models of the mobile channel have been obtained when compared to the field test measurements. Subjective performance tests have been carried out to evaluate the quality and usefulness of the received line diagram images under various mobile channel conditions. The effect of mobile transmission errors on the quality of the received images has been determined. To improve the quality of the received images under various mobile channel conditions, forward error correcting codes (FEC) with interleaving and automatic repeat request (ARQ) schemes have been proposed. The performance of the error control codes have been evaluated under various mobile channel conditions. It has been shown that a FEC code with interleaving can be used effectively to improve the quality of the received images under normal and severe mobile channel conditions. Under normal channel conditions, similar results have been obtained when using ARQ schemes. However, under severe mobile channel conditions, the FEC code with interleaving shows better performance.

Data transmission by frequency-hopped multilevel frequency shift keying

Spread spectrum systems make use of radio frequency bandwidths which far exceed the minimum bandwidth necessary to transmit the basic message information.These systems are designed to provide satisfactory communication of the message information under difficult transmission conditions. Frequency-hopped multilevel frequency shift keying (FH-MFSK) is one of the many techniques used in spread spectrum systems. It is a combination of frequency hopping and time hopping. In this system many users share a common frequency band using code division multiplexing. Each user is assigned an address and the message is modulated into the address. The receiver, knowing the address, decodes the received signal and extracts the message. This technique is suggested for digital mobile telephony. This thesis is concerned with an investigation of the possibility of utilising FH-MFSK for data transmission corrupted by additive white gaussian noise (A.W.G.N.). Work related to FH-MFSK has so far been mostly confined to its validity, and its performance in the presence of A.W.G.N. has not been reported before. An experimental system was therefore constructed which utilised combined hardware and software and operated under the supervision of a microprocessor system. The experimental system was used to develop an error-rate model for the system under investigation. The performance of FH-MFSK for data transmission was established in the presence of A.W.G.N. and with deleted and delayed sample effects. Its capability for multiuser applications was determined theoretically. The results show that FH-MFSK is a suitable technique for data transmission in the presence of A.W.G.N.

1000 Km transmission of 40 Gbit/s single channel RZ data over dispersion managed standard (non-dispersion shifted) fibre

Error-free transmission of a single polarization optical time division multiplexed 40 Gbit/s dispersion managed pulse data stream over 1009 km has been achieved in dispersion-compensated standard (non-dispersion shifted) fibre. This distance is twice the previous record at this data rate.