The modelling of energy efficient drying for DSM (BL)

This thesis investigates the modelling of drying processes for the promotion of market-led Demand Side Management (DSM) as applied to the UK Public Electricity Suppliers. A review of DSM in the electricity supply industry is provided, together with a discussion of the relevant drivers supporting market-led DSM and energy services (ES). The potential opportunities for ES in a fully deregulated energy market are outlined. It is suggested that targeted industrial sector energy efficiency schemes offer significant opportunity for long term customer and supplier benefit. On a process level, industrial drying is highlighted as offering significant scope for the application of energy services. Drying is an energy-intensive process used widely throughout industry. The results of an energy survey suggest that 17.7 per cent of total UK industrial energy use derives from drying processes. Comparison with published work indicates that energy use for drying shows an increasing trend against a background of reducing overall industrial energy use. Airless drying is highlighted as offering potential energy saving and production benefits to industry. To this end, a comprehensive review of the novel airless drying technology and its background theory is made. Advantages and disadvantages of airless operation are defined and the limited market penetration of airless drying is identified, as are the key opportunities for energy saving. Limited literature has been found which details the modelling of energy use for airless drying. A review of drying theory and previous modelling work is made in an attempt to model energy consumption for drying processes. The history of drying models is presented as well as a discussion of the different approaches taken and their relative merits. The viability of deriving energy use from empirical drying data is examined. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are successfully applied to the modelling of drying rates for 3 drying technologies, namely convective air, heat pump and airless drying. The ANFIS systems are then integrated into a novel energy services model for the prediction of relative drying times, energy cost and atmospheric carbon dioxide emission levels. The author believes that this work constitutes the first to use fuzzy systems for the modelling of drying performance as an energy services approach to DSM. To gain an insight into the 'real world' use of energy for drying, this thesis presents a unique first-order energy audit of every ceramic sanitaryware manufacturing site in the UK. Previously unknown patterns of energy use are highlighted. Supplementary comments on the timing and use of drying systems are also made. The limitations of such large scope energy surveys are discussed.

DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder:in search of essential behaviours for diagnosis

Background: Despite initial concerns about the sensitivity of the proposed diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD; e.g. Gibbs et al., 2012; McPartland et al., 2012), evidence is growing that the DSM-5 criteria provides an inclusive description with both good sensitivity and specificity (e.g. Frazier et al., 2012; Kent, Carrington et al., 2013). The capacity of the criteria to provide high levels of sensitivity and specificity comparable with DSM-IV-TR however relies on careful measurement to ensure that appropriate items from diagnostic instruments map onto the new DSM-5 descriptions.Objectives: To use an existing DSM-5 diagnostic algorithm (Kent, Carrington et .al., 2013) to identify a set of ‘essential’ behaviors sufficient to make a reliable and accurate diagnosis of DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) across age and ability level. Methods: Specific behaviors were identified and tested from the recently published DSM-5 algorithm for the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). Analyses were run on existing DISCO datasets, with a total participant sample size of 335. Three studies provided step-by-step development towards identification of a minimum set of items. Study 1 identified the most highly discriminating items (p<.0001). Study 2 used a lower selection threshold than in Study 1 (p<.05) to facilitate better representation of the full DSM-5 ASD profile. Study 3 included additional items previously reported as significantly more frequent in individuals with higher ability. The discriminant validity of all three item sets was tested using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Finally, sensitivity across age and ability was investigated in a subset of individuals with ASD (n=190).Results: Study 1 identified an item set (14 items) with good discriminant validity, but which predominantly measured social-communication behaviors (11/14). The Study 2 item set (48 items) better represented the DSM-5 ASD and had good discriminant validity, but the item set lacked sensitivity for individuals with higher ability. The final Study 3 adjusted item set (54 items) improved sensitivity for individuals with higher ability and performance and was comparable to the published DISCO DSM-5 algorithm.Conclusions: This work represents a first attempt to derive a reduced set of behaviors for DSM-5 directly from an existing standardized ASD developmental history interview. Further work involving existing ASD diagnostic tools with community-based and well characterized research samples will be required to replicate these findings and exploit their potential to contribute to a more efficient and focused ASD diagnostic process.

Diagnosing autism spectrum disorder:who will get a DSM-5 diagnosis?

Background Introduction of proposed criteria for DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has raised concerns that some individuals currently meeting diagnostic criteria for Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD; DSM-IV-TR/ICD-10) will not qualify for a diagnosis under the proposed changes. To date, reports of sensitivity and specificity of the new criteria have been inconsistent across studies. No study has yet considered how changes at the 'sub domain' level might affect overall sensitivity and specificity, and few have included individuals of different ages and ability levels. Methods A set of DSM-5 ASD algorithms were developed using items from the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). The number of items required for each DSM-5 subdomain was defined either according to criteria specified by DSM-5 (Initial Algorithm), a statistical approach (Youden J Algorithm), or to minimise the number of false positives while maximising sensitivity (Modified Algorithm). The algorithms were designed, tested and compared in two independent samples (Sample 1, N = 82; Sample 2, N = 115), while sensitivity was assessed across age and ability levels in an additional dataset of individuals with an ICD-10 PDD diagnosis (Sample 3, N = 190). Results Sensitivity was highest in the Initial Algorithm, which had the poorest specificity. Although Youden J had excellent specificity, sensitivity was significantly lower than in the Modified Algorithm, which had both good sensitivity and specificity. Relaxing the domain A rules improved sensitivity of the Youden J Algorithm, but it remained less sensitive than the Modified Algorithm. Moreover, this was the only algorithm with variable sensitivity across age. All versions of the algorithm performed well across ability level. Conclusions This study demonstrates that good levels of both sensitivity and specificity can be achieved for a diagnostic algorithm adhering to the DSM-5 criteria that is suitable across age and ability level. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder:in search of essential behaviours for diagnosis

The objective of this study was to identify a set of 'essential' behaviours sufficient for diagnosis of DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Highly discriminating, 'essential' behaviours were identified from the published DSM-5 algorithm developed for the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). Study 1 identified a reduced item set (48 items) with good predictive validity (as measured using receiver operating characteristic curves) that represented all symptom sub-domains described in the DSM-5 ASD criteria but lacked sensitivity for individuals with higher ability. An adjusted essential item set (54 items; Study 2) had good sensitivity when applied to individuals with higher ability and performance was comparable to the published full DISCO DSM-5 algorithm. Investigation at the item level revealed that the most highly discriminating items predominantly measured social-communication behaviours. This work represents a first attempt to derive a reduced set of behaviours for DSM-5 directly from an existing standardised ASD developmental history interview and has implications for the use of DSM-5 criteria for clinical and research practice. © 2014 The Authors.

Abnormal amygdala-prefrontal effective connectivity to happy faces differentiates bipolar from major depression

Background - Bipolar disorder is frequently misdiagnosed as major depressive disorder, delaying appropriate treatment and worsening outcome for many bipolar individuals. Emotion dysregulation is a core feature of bipolar disorder. Measures of dysfunction in neural systems supporting emotion regulation might therefore help discriminate bipolar from major depressive disorder. Methods - Thirty-one depressed individuals—15 bipolar depressed (BD) and 16 major depressed (MDD), DSM-IV diagnostic criteria, ages 18–55 years, matched for age, age of illness onset, illness duration, and depression severity—and 16 age- and gender-matched healthy control subjects performed two event-related paradigms: labeling the emotional intensity of happy and sad faces, respectively. We employed dynamic causal modeling to examine significant among-group alterations in effective connectivity (EC) between right- and left-sided neural regions supporting emotion regulation: amygdala and orbitomedial prefrontal cortex (OMPFC). Results - During classification of happy faces, we found profound and asymmetrical differences in EC between the OMPFC and amygdala. Left-sided differences involved top-down connections and discriminated between depressed and control subjects. Furthermore, greater medication load was associated with an amelioration of this abnormal top-down EC. Conversely, on the right side the abnormality was in bottom-up EC that was specific to bipolar disorder. These effects replicated when we considered only female subjects. Conclusions - Abnormal, left-sided, top-down OMPFC–amygdala and right-sided, bottom-up, amygdala–OMPFC EC during happy labeling distinguish BD and MDD, suggesting different pathophysiological mechanisms associated with the two types of depression.

Autonomic response in depersonalisation disorder

Background Emotional-processing inhibition has been suggested as a mechanism underlying some of the clinical features of depersonalization and/or derealization. In this study, we tested the prediction that autonomic response to emotional stimuli would be reduced in patients with depersonalization disorder. Methods The skin conductance responses of 15 patients with chronic depersonalization disorder according to DSM-IV, 15 controls, and 11 individuals with anxiety disorders according to DSM-IV, were recorded in response to nonspecific elicitors (an unexpected clap and taking a sigh) and in response to 15 randomized pictures with different emotional valences: 5 unpleasant, 5 pleasant, and 5 neutral. Results The skin conductance response to unpleasant pictures was significantly reduced in patients with depersonalization disorder (magnitude of 0.017 µsiemens in controls and 0.103 µsiemens in patients with anxiety disorders; P = .01). Also, the latency of response to these stimuli was significantly prolonged in the group with depersonalization disorder (3.01 seconds compared with 2.5 and 2.1 seconds in the control and anxiety groups, respectively; P = .02). In contrast, latency to nonspecific stimuli (clap and sigh) was significantly shorter in the depersonalization and anxiety groups (1.6 seconds) than in controls (2.3 seconds) (P = .03). Conclusions In depersonalization disorder, autonomic response to unpleasant stimuli is reduced. The fact that patients with depersonalization disorder respond earlier to a startling noise suggests that they are in a heightened state of alertness and that the reduced response to unpleasant stimuli is caused by a selective inhibitory mechanism on emotional processing.

Autonomic response in the perception of disgust and happiness in depersonalization disorder

Patients with depersonalization disorder have shown attenuated responses to emotional unpleasant stimuli, hence supporting the view that depersonalization is characterised by a selective inhibition on the processing of unpleasant emotions. It was the purpose of this study to establish if autonomic responses to facial emotional expressions also show the same blunting effect. The skin conductance responses (SCRs) of 16 patients with chronic DSM-IV depersonalization disorder, 15 normal controls and 15 clinical controls with DSM-IV anxiety disorders were recorded in response to facial expressions of happiness and disgust. Patients with anxiety disorders were found to have greater autonomic responses than patients with depersonalization, in spite of the fact that both groups had similarly high levels of subjective anxiety as measured by anxiety scales. SCR to happy faces did not vary across groups. The findings of this study provide further support to the idea that patients with depersonalization have a selective impairment in the processing of threatening or unpleasant emotional stimuli.

Demand side management within a regional electricity company

The work presented in this thesis concerns itself with the application of Demand Side Management (DSM) by industrial subsector as applied to the UK electricity industry. A review of the origins of DSM in the US and the relevance of experience gained to the UK electricity industry is made. Reviews are also made of the current status of the UK electricity industry, the regulatory system, and the potential role of DSM within the prevalent industry environment. A financial appraisal of DSM in respect of the distribution business of a Regional Electricity Company (REC) is also made. This financial appraisal highlights the economic viability of DSM within the context of the current UK electricity industry. The background of the work presented above is then followed by the construction of a framework detailing the necessary requirements for expanding the commercial role of DSM to encompass benefits for the supply business of a REC. The derived framework is then applied, in part, to the UK ceramics manufacturing industry, and in full to the UK sanitaryware manufacturing industry. The application of the framework to the UK sanitaryware manufacturing industry has required the undertaking of a unique first-order energy audit of every such manufacturing site in the UK. As such the audit has revealed previously unknown data on the timings and magnitude of electricity demand and consumption attributable to end-use manufacturing technologies and processes. The audit also served to reveal the disparity in the attitudes toward energy services, and thus by implication towards DSM, of manufacturers within the same Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. In response to this, attempt is made to identify the underlying drivers which could cause this variation in attitude. A novel approach to the market segmentation of the companies within the UK ceramics manufacturing sector has been utilised to classify these companies in terms of their likelihood to participate in DSM programmes through the derived Energy Services approach. The market segmentation technique, although requiring further development to progress from a research based concept, highlights the necessity to look beyond the purely energy based needs of manufacturing industries when considering the utilisation of the Energy Services approach to facilitate DSM programs.

Elevated amygdala activity to sad facial expressions:a state marker of bipolar but not unipolar depression

Background - Difficulties in emotion processing and poor social function are common to bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) depression, resulting in many BD depressed individuals being misdiagnosed with MDD. The amygdala is a key region implicated in processing emotionally salient stimuli, including emotional facial expressions. It is unclear, however, whether abnormal amygdala activity during positive and negative emotion processing represents a persistent marker of BD regardless of illness phase or a state marker of depression common or specific to BD and MDD depression. Methods - Sixty adults were recruited: 15 depressed with BD type 1 (BDd), 15 depressed with recurrent MDD, 15 with BD in remission (BDr), diagnosed with DSM-IV and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Research Version criteria; and 15 healthy control subjects (HC). Groups were age- and gender ratio-matched; patient groups were matched for age of illness onset and illness duration; depressed groups were matched for depression severity. The BDd were taking more psychotropic medication than other patient groups. All individuals participated in three separate 3T neuroimaging event-related experiments, where they viewed mild and intense emotional and neutral faces of fear, happiness, or sadness from a standardized series. Results - The BDd—relative to HC, BDr, and MDD—showed elevated left amygdala activity to mild and neutral facial expressions in the sad (p < .009) but not other emotion experiments that was not associated with medication. There were no other significant between-group differences in amygdala activity. Conclusions - Abnormally elevated left amygdala activity to mild sad and neutral faces might be a depression-specific marker in BD but not MDD, suggesting different pathophysiologic processes for BD versus MDD depression.

Abnormally increased effective connectivity between parahippocampal gyrus and ventromedial prefrontal regions during emotion labeling in bipolar disorder

Emotional liability and mood dysregulation characterize bipolar disorder (BD), yet no study has examined effective connectivity between parahippocampal gyrus and prefrontal cortical regions in ventromedial and dorsal/lateral neural systems subserving mood regulation in BD. Participants comprised 46 individuals (age range: 18-56 years): 21 with a DSM-IV diagnosis of BD, type I currently remitted; and 25 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HC). Participants performed an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigm, viewing mild and intense happy and neutral faces. We employed dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to identify significant alterations in effective connectivity between BD and HC. Bayes model selection was used to determine the best model. The right parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) and right subgenual cingulate gyrus (sgCG) were included as representative regions of the ventromedial neural system. The right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) region was included as representative of the dorsal/lateral neural system. Right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity was significantly greater in BD than HC, reflecting more rapid, forward PHG-sgCG signaling in BD than HC. There was no between-group difference in sgCG-DLPFC effective connectivity. In BD, abnormally increased right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity and reduced right PHG activity to emotional stimuli suggest a dysfunctional ventromedial neural system implicated in early stimulus appraisal, encoding and automatic regulation of emotion that may represent a pathophysiological functional neural mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD.

Elevated left and reduced right orbitomedial prefrontal fractional anisotropy in adults with bipolar disorder revealed by tract-based spatial statistics

Context - Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies in adults with bipolar disorder (BD) indicate altered white matter (WM) in the orbitomedial prefrontal cortex (OMPFC), potentially underlying abnormal prefrontal corticolimbic connectivity and mood dysregulation in BD. Objective - To use tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) to examine WM skeleton (ie, the most compact whole-brain WM) in subjects with BD vs healthy control subjects. Design - Cross-sectional, case-control, whole-brain DTI using TBSS. Setting - University research institute. Participants - Fifty-six individuals, 31 having a DSM-IV diagnosis of BD type I (mean age, 35.9 years [age range, 24-52 years]) and 25 controls (mean age, 29.5 years [age range, 19-52 years]). Main Outcome Measures - Fractional anisotropy (FA) longitudinal and radial diffusivities in subjects with BD vs controls (covarying for age) and their relationships with clinical and demographic variables. Results - Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly greater FA (t > 3.0, P = .05 corrected) in the left uncinate fasciculus (reduced radial diffusivity distally and increased longitudinal diffusivity centrally), left optic radiation (increased longitudinal diffusivity), and right anterothalamic radiation (no significant diffusivity change). Subjects with BD vs controls had significantly reduced FA (t > 3.0, P = .05 corrected) in the right uncinate fasciculus (greater radial diffusivity). Among subjects with BD, significant negative correlations (P < .01) were found between age and FA in bilateral uncinate fasciculi and in the right anterothalamic radiation, as well as between medication load and FA in the left optic radiation. Decreased FA (P < .01) was observed in the left optic radiation and in the right anterothalamic radiation among subjects with BD taking vs those not taking mood stabilizers, as well as in the left optic radiation among depressed vs remitted subjects with BD. Subjects having BD with vs without lifetime alcohol or other drug abuse had significantly decreased FA in the left uncinate fasciculus. Conclusions - To our knowledge, this is the first study to use TBSS to examine WM in subjects with BD. Subjects with BD vs controls showed greater WM FA in the left OMPFC that diminished with age and with alcohol or other drug abuse, as well as reduced WM FA in the right OMPFC. Mood stabilizers and depressed episode reduced WM FA in left-sided sensory visual processing regions among subjects with BD. Abnormal right vs left asymmetry in FA in OMPFC WM among subjects with BD, likely reflecting increased proportions of left-sided longitudinally aligned and right-sided obliquely aligned myelinated fibers, may represent a biologic mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD.

Health of entrepreneurs versus employees in a national representative sample

Prior research has found entrepreneurs to experience significantly higher job control and job demands compared with employees. This suggests that entrepreneurs have so-called active jobs and thus may benefit from positive health consequences. The present research compared entrepreneurs' health with employees' health in a national representative sample with regard to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) diagnoses of somatic diseases, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) diagnoses of mental disorders, blood pressure, well-being (life-satisfaction) as well as behavioural health indicators (sick days, physician visits). Entrepreneurs showed significantly lower overall somatic and mental morbidity, lower blood pressure, lower prevalence rates of hypertension, and somatoform disorders, as well as higher well-being and more favourable behavioural health indicators. The results are discussed with regard to the active job hypothesis and recommendations for future research are provided.

Signposting for diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder using the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO)

Recent research has investigated the capability of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) descriptions to identify individuals who should receive a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) using standardised diagnostic instruments. Building on previous research investigating behaviours essential for the diagnosis of DSM-5 ASD, the current study investigated the sensitivity and specificity of a set of 14 items derived from the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO Signposting set) that have potential for signposting the diagnosis of autism according to both the new DSM-5 criteria for ASD and ICD-10 criteria for Childhood Autism. An algorithm threshold for the Signposting set was calculated in Sample 1 (n = 67), tested in an independent validation sample (Sample 2; n = 78), and applied across age and ability sub-groups in Sample 3 (n = 190). The algorithm had excellent predictive validity according to best estimate clinical diagnosis (Samples 1 and 2) and excellent agreement with established algorithms for both DSM-5 and ICD-10 (all samples). The signposting set has potential to inform our understanding of the profile of ASD in relation to other neurodevelopmental disorders and to form the basis of a Signposting Interview for use in clinical practice.

Definitions and factors associated with subthreshold depressive conditions:a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Subthreshold depressive disorders (minor and subthrehold depression) have been defined in a wide range of forms, varying on the number of symptoms and duration required. Disability associated with these conditions has also been reported. Our aim was to review the different definitions and to determine factors associated with these conditions in order to clarify the nosological implications of these disorders. METHODS: A Medline search was conducted of the published literature between January 2001 and September 2011. Bibliographies of the retrieved papers were also analysed. RESULTS: There is a wide heterogeneity in the definition and diagnostic criteria of minor and subthreshold depression. Minor depression was defined according to DSM-IV criteria. Regarding subthreshold depression, also called subclinical depression or subsyndromal symptomatic depression, between 2 and 5 depressive symptoms were required for the diagnosis, and a minimum duration of 2 weeks. Significant impairment associated with subthreshold depressive conditions, as well as comorbidity with other mental disorders, has been described. CONCLUSIONS: Depression as a disorder is better explained as a spectrum rather than as a collection of discrete categories. Minor and subthreshold depression are common conditions and patients falling below the diagnostic threshold experience significant difficulties in functioning and a negative impact on their quality of life. Current diagnostic systems need to reexamine the thresholds for depressive disorders and distinguish them from ordinary feelings of sadness.