Negative assimilation:how immigrants experience economic mobility in Japan

This paper examines the economic mobility of foreign migrants in Japan. In a country that is largely regarded as homogeneous and closed to outsiders, how and to what extent do immigrants achieve economic success? A survey conducted by the authors revealed that the conventional assimilationist perspective does not fully explain immigrants’ economic success in Japan. Migrants from the West experience what Chiswick and Miller (2011) refer to as “negative assimilation.” That is, their earnings decline over time in Japan. While negative assimilation was not clearly observed among immigrants from neighboring Asian countries, wages among them did not increase with the length of their stay in Japan. For both groups, the skills they brought from abroad were found to be largely accountable for their economic success, while locally specific human capital, such as education acquired in the host society, did not contribute to their earnings.

Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

Late Caledonian magmagenesis in Southern Scotland

The Priestlaw and Cockburn Law intrusions are zoned granitoid plutons intruded into Lower Palaeozoic sediments at the margin of, and prior to closure of, the Iapetus Ocean. They vary from marginal basic rocks to more acid rocks towards their centres. The parental magmas to the plutons were derived from an isotopically depleted mantle modified by melts/fluids during subduction. Zonation in the plutons was caused by combined assimilation and fractional crystallisation (AFC), and rates of assimilation were low relative to rates of fractionation. A series of pyroxene-mica diorites in Priestlaw are however hybrids formed by simple mixing. Porphyrite-acid porphyrite dykes, associated with the plutons, represent chilled portions of the pluton magmas; more evolved quartz porphyry dykes represent crustal melts. Lamprophyre dykes have high LILE and LREE abundances and relative depletions of HFS elements, typical of subduction related ultra-potassic magmas. High Mg numbers, Ni and Cr contents and experimental constraints, imply near primary status for the least evolved lamprophyres. Their enrichments in incompatible elements, high La/Nb, La/Yb, Sr and low Nd indicate derivation from a previously metasomatised mantle source. Granitoid plutons and lavas in the northern Southern Uplands have high Nd and low Sr, whereas the younger plutons of the southern Southern Uplands have higher Sr, La/Yb and lower Nd, consistent with derivation from a more enriched source. No plutons however have remained as closed systems. Three magmatic suites are present in southern Scotland: (1) Midland Valley Suite (2) Northern Southern Uplands Suite and (3) Southern Southern Uplands Suite, consistent with previous models indicating northward underthrusting of English lithosphere below the southern Southern Uplands. Further underthrusting of decoupled lithospheric mantle is indicated by the presence of lamorophyres in the eastern Southern Uplands, and took place between 410 Ma and 400 Ma.

Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.