The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.

Nanoengineering heterogeneous catalysts for the selective hydrogenation of key agrochemical derivatives

Rapidly rising world populations have sparked growing concerns over global food production to meet this increasing demand. Figures released by The World Bank suggest that a 50 % increase in worldwide cereal production is required by 2030. Primary amines are important intermediates in the synthesis of a wide variety of fine chemicals utilised within the agrochemical industry, and hence new 'greener' routes to their low cost manufacture from sustainable resources would permit significantly enhanced crop yields. Early synthetic pathways to primary amines employed stoichiometric (and often toxic) reagents via multi-step protocols, resulting in a large number of by-products and correspondingly high Environmental factors of 50-100 (compared with 1-5 for typical bulk chemicals syntheses). Alternative catalytic routes to primary amines have proven fruitful, however new issues relating to selectivity and deactivation have slowed commercialisation. The potential of heterogeneous catalysts for nitrile hydrogenation to amines has been demonstrated in a simplified reaction framework under benign conditions, but further work is required to improve the atom economy and energy efficiency through developing fundamental insight into nature of the active species and origin of on-stream deactivation. Supported palladium nanoparticles have been investigated for the hydrogenation of crotononitrile to butylamine (Figure 1) under favourable conditions, and the impact of reaction temperature, hydrogen pressure, support and loading upon activity and selectivity to C=C versus CºN activation assessed.

The development of a sustainable agricultural industry through the application of biochar and pyroligneous acid

This paper marks the first in a series of studies into the potential use of pyrolysis products in the development of more sustainable practices within the agricultural industry. In this study, the immediate benefits of the application of biochar to crop yields of Raphanus sativus (radishes) are assessed. Furthermore, the study reports on the preliminary findings into the potential application of pyroligneous acid (wood vinegar) as a biocidal agent against crop disease. Although germination tests undertaken on biochar/compost blends of up to 1: 2, by weight, showed no significant adverse effect from the addition of the nutrient rich carbonaceous solid, evidence of substantial increases in crop yield through the addition of biochar were not observed. In sharp contrast, zones of inhibition were observed at 3-10 vol. % upon application of pyroligneous acid to two causal agents responsible for certain diseases in vegetable and fruit crops, i.e. Rhizobium radiobacter (agrobacterium tumefaciens) and Xanthomonas campestris, highlighting the versatility in the application of pyrolysis products and avenues for exploration in the development of this biomass conversion technology.