The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

The impact on agriculture of the drawdown of shallow watertables

The promoters of the large groundwater developments implemented in the 1970's paid little attention to the effects of pumping on soil moisture. A field study, conducted in 1979 in the Tern Area of the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, revealed that significant quantities of the available moisture could be removed from the root zone of vegetation when drawdown of shallow watertables occurred. Arguments to this effect, supported by the field study evidence, were successfully presented at the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme public inquiry. The aim of this study has been to expand the work which was undertaken in connection with the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, and to develop a method whereby the effects of groundwater pumping on vegetation can be assessed, and hence the impacts minimised. Two concepts, the critical height and the soil sensitivity depth, formulated during the initial work are at the core of the Environmental Impact Assessment method whose development is described. A programme of laboratory experiments on soil columns is described, as is the derivation of relationships for determining critical heights and field capacity moisture profiles. These relationships are subsequently employed in evaluating the effects of groundwater drawdown. In employing the environmental assessment technique, digitised maps of relevant features of the Tern Area are combined to produce composite maps delineating the extent of the areas which are potentially sensitive to groundwater drawdown. A series of crop yield/moisture loss functions are then employed to estimate the impact of simulated pumping events on the agricultural community of the Tern Area. Finally, guidelines, based on experience gained through evaluation of the Tern Area case study, are presented for use in the design of soil moisture monitoring systems and in the siting of boreholes. In addition recommendations are made for development of the EIA technique, and further research needs are identified.

The development of a sustainable agricultural industry through the application of biochar and pyroligneous acid

This paper marks the first in a series of studies into the potential use of pyrolysis products in the development of more sustainable practices within the agricultural industry. In this study, the immediate benefits of the application of biochar to crop yields of Raphanus sativus (radishes) are assessed. Furthermore, the study reports on the preliminary findings into the potential application of pyroligneous acid (wood vinegar) as a biocidal agent against crop disease. Although germination tests undertaken on biochar/compost blends of up to 1: 2, by weight, showed no significant adverse effect from the addition of the nutrient rich carbonaceous solid, evidence of substantial increases in crop yield through the addition of biochar were not observed. In sharp contrast, zones of inhibition were observed at 3-10 vol. % upon application of pyroligneous acid to two causal agents responsible for certain diseases in vegetable and fruit crops, i.e. Rhizobium radiobacter (agrobacterium tumefaciens) and Xanthomonas campestris, highlighting the versatility in the application of pyrolysis products and avenues for exploration in the development of this biomass conversion technology.

Human resource management, innovation and performance:looking across levels

The importance of innovation can hardly be exaggerated, given that landmark change has defined human progress in our technological age. The business pages of popular journals are replete with a dazzling array of inventions that have overturned existing ways of working and fundamentally changed human experience — from agricultural drones that offer farmers new ways to increase crop yield to genome editing that provides powerful insights into genetically baffling brain disorders. Innovation has become a topical theme within organisations, too, with no shortage of advice and suggestions often targeted at business leaders about how to craft an innovation strategy or increase the number and quality of ideas with a view to enriching organisational life. The quote at the start of this chapter bears testament to the sheer effort of moving away from familiar, habitual practices in the direction of less-certain, risky future terrain. Setting aside what has gone before to move in new directions requires determination, resilience and courage at a personal level. Often overlooked, though, are the multi-level dynamics that this entails.

Development of a sediment yield model for South East Ghana in the regions around Lake Volta

Soil erosion is one of the most pressing issues facing developing countries. The need for soil erosion assessment is paramount as a successful and productive agricultural base is necessary for economic growth and stability. In Ghana, a country with an expanding population and high potential for economic growth, agriculture is an important resource; however, most of the crop production is restricted to low technology shifting cultivation agriculture. The high intensity seasonal rainfall coincides with the early growing period of many of the crops meaning that plots are very susceptible to erosion, especially on steep sided valleys in the region south of Lake Volta. This research investigated the processes of soil erosion by rainfall with the aim of producing a sediment yield model for a small semi-agricultural catchment in rural Ghana. Various types of modelling techniques were considered to discover those most applicable to the sub-tropical environment of Southern Ghana. Once an appropriate model had been developed and calibrated, the aim was to look at how to enable the scaling up of the model using sub-catchments to calculate sedimentation rates of Lake Volta. An experimental catchment was located in Ghana, south west of Lake Volta, where data on rainstorms and the associated streamflow, sediment loads and soil data (moisture content, classification and particle size distribution) was collected to calibrate the model. Additional data was obtained from the Soil Research Institute in Ghana to explore calibration of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) for Ghanaian soils and environment. It was shown that the USLE could be successfully converted to provide meaningful soil loss estimates in the Ghanaian environment. However, due to experimental difficulties, the proposed theory and methodology of the sediment yield model could only be tested in principle. Future work may include validation of the model and subsequent scaling up to estimate sedimentation rates in Lake Volta.

Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A novel ranking procedure for forecasting approaches using Data Envelopment Analysis

To compare the accuracy of different forecasting approaches an error measure is required. Many error measures have been proposed in the literature, however in practice there are some situations where different measures yield different decisions on forecasting approach selection and there is no agreement on which approach should be used. Generally forecasting measures represent ratios or percentages providing an overall image of how well fitted the forecasting technique is to the observations. This paper proposes a multiplicative Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model in order to rank several forecasting techniques. We demonstrate the proposed model by applying it to the set of yearly time series of the M3 competition. The usefulness of the proposed approach has been tested using the M3-competition where five error measures have been applied in and aggregated to a single DEA score.