Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

"Crack down on the celebrity junkies": does media coverage of celebrity drug use pose a risk to young people?

This study analysed news media content to examine the role played by celebrity drug use in young people's perceptions of drug use. We know that young people have access to discourses of drug use through music and other media which may emphasise short term gains (of pleasure or sexual success) over longer term health and social problems. This study goes beyond a simple modelling approach by using Media Framing Analysis (MFA) to take an in-depth look at the messages themselves and how they are 'framed'. New stories about Amy Winehouse's drug use were used and we conducted focus groups with young people asking them questions about drugs, celebrity and the media. Frames identified include: 'troubled genius', 'losing patience' and 'glamorization or gritty realism'. Initially, the press championed Winehouse's musical talent but soon began to tire of her recklessness; the participants tended to be unimpressed with Winehouse's drug use, characterising her as a promising artist who had 'gone off the rails'. Young people were far more critical of Winehouse than might be expected, demonstrating that concerns about the influence of celebrity drug use and its impact on future health risk behaviour among young people may have been over-simplified and exaggerated. This study illustrates the need to understand young people and their frames of reference within popular culture when designing drug awareness information relevant to them. Furthermore, it indicates that critical media skills analysis may contribute to health risk education programmes related to drug use.

Sparse signal representation by adaptive non-uniform B-spline dictionaries on a compact interval

Non-uniform B-spline dictionaries on a compact interval are discussed in the context of sparse signal representation. For each given partition, dictionaries of B-spline functions for the corresponding spline space are built up by dividing the partition into subpartitions and joining together the bases for the concomitant subspaces. The resulting slightly redundant dictionaries are composed of B-spline functions of broader support than those corresponding to the B-spline basis for the identical space. Such dictionaries are meant to assist in the construction of adaptive sparse signal representation through a combination of stepwise optimal greedy techniques.

Interval timing in children:effects of auditory and visual pacing stimuli and relationships with reading and attention variables

Motor timing tasks have been employed in studies of neurodevelopmental disorders such as developmental dyslexia and ADHD, where they provide an index of temporal processing ability. Investigations of these disorders have used different stimulus parameters within the motor timing tasks which are likely to affect performance measures. Here we assessed the effect of auditory and visual pacing stimuli on synchronised motor timing performance and its relationship with cognitive and behavioural predictors that are commonly used in the diagnosis of these highly prevalent developmental disorders. Twenty- one children (mean age 9.6 years) completed a finger tapping task in two stimulus conditions, together with additional psychometric measures. As anticipated, synchronisation to the beat (ISI 329 ms) was less accurate in the visually paced condition. Decomposition of timing variance indicated that this effect resulted from differences in the way that visual and auditory paced tasks are processed by central timekeeping and associated peripheral implementation systems. The ability to utilise an efficient processing strategy on the visual task correlated with both reading and sustained attention skills. Dissociations between these patterns of relationship across task modality suggest that not all timing tasks are equivalent.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.

QT interval prolongation related to psychoactive drug treatment:a comparison of monotherapy versus polytherapy

Background - Several antipsychotic agents are known to prolong the QT interval in a dose dependent manner. Corrected QT interval (QTc) exceeding a threshold value of 450 ms may be associated with an increased risk of life threatening arrhythmias. Antipsychotic agents are often given in combination with other psychotropic drugs, such as antidepressants, that may also contribute to QT prolongation. This observational study compares the effects observed on QT interval between antipsychotic monotherapy and psychoactive polytherapy, which included an additional antidepressant or lithium treatment. Method - We examined two groups of hospitalized women with Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder and Schizoaffective Disorder in a naturalistic setting. Group 1 was composed of nineteen hospitalized women treated with antipsychotic monotherapy (either haloperidol, olanzapine, risperidone or clozapine) and Group 2 was composed of nineteen hospitalized women treated with an antipsychotic (either haloperidol, olanzapine, risperidone or quetiapine) with an additional antidepressant (citalopram, escitalopram, sertraline, paroxetine, fluvoxamine, mirtazapine, venlafaxine or clomipramine) or lithium. An Electrocardiogram (ECG) was carried out before the beginning of the treatment for both groups and at a second time after four days of therapy at full dosage, when blood was also drawn for determination of serum levels of the antipsychotic. Statistical analysis included repeated measures ANOVA, Fisher Exact Test and Indipendent T Test. Results - Mean QTc intervals significantly increased in Group 2 (24 ± 21 ms) however this was not the case in Group 1 (-1 ± 30 ms) (Repeated measures ANOVA p < 0,01). Furthermore we found a significant difference in the number of patients who exceeded the threshold of borderline QTc interval value (450 ms) between the two groups, with seven patients in Group 2 (38%) compared to one patient in Group 1 (7%) (Fisher Exact Text, p < 0,05). Conclusions - No significant prolongation of the QT interval was found following monotherapy with an antipsychotic agent, while combination of these drugs with antidepressants caused a significant QT prolongation. Careful monitoring of the QT interval is suggested in patients taking a combined treatment of antipsychotic and antidepressant agents.

General and multiplicative non-parametric corporate performance models with interval ratio data

The increasing intensity of global competition has led organizations to utilize various types of performance measurement tools for improving the quality of their products and services. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for evaluating and measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. All the data in the conventional DEA with input and/or output ratios assumes the form of crisp numbers. However, the observed values of data in real-world problems are sometimes expressed as interval ratios. In this paper, we propose two new models: general and multiplicative non-parametric ratio models for DEA problems with interval data. The contributions of this paper are fourfold: (1) we consider input and output data expressed as interval ratios in DEA; (2) we address the gap in DEA literature for problems not suitable or difficult to model with crisp values; (3) we propose two new DEA models for evaluating the relative efficiencies of DMUs with interval ratios, and (4) we present a case study involving 20 banks with three interval ratios to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed models where the traditional indicators are mostly financial ratios. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

An overall profit Malmquist productivity index with fuzzy and interval data

Although crisp data are fundamentally indispensable for determining the profit Malmquist productivity index (MPI), the observed values in real-world problems are often imprecise or vague. These imprecise or vague data can be suitably characterized with fuzzy and interval methods. In this paper, we reformulate the conventional profit MPI problem as an imprecise data envelopment analysis (DEA) problem, and propose two novel methods for measuring the overall profit MPI when the inputs, outputs, and price vectors are fuzzy or vary in intervals. We develop a fuzzy version of the conventional MPI model by using a ranking method, and solve the model with a commercial off-the-shelf DEA software package. In addition, we define an interval for the overall profit MPI of each decision-making unit (DMU) and divide the DMUs into six groups according to the intervals obtained for their overall profit efficiency and MPIs. We also present two numerical examples to demonstrate the applicability of the two proposed models and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Interval data without sign restrictions in DEA

Conventional DEA models assume deterministic, precise and non-negative data for input and output observations. However, real applications may be characterized by observations that are given in form of intervals and include negative numbers. For instance, the consumption of electricity in decentralized energy resources may be either negative or positive, depending on the heat consumption. Likewise, the heat losses in distribution networks may be within a certain range, depending on e.g. external temperature and real-time outtake. Complementing earlier work separately addressing the two problems; interval data and negative data; we propose a comprehensive evaluation process for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of DMUs in DEA. In our general formulation, the intervals may contain upper or lower bounds with different signs. The proposed method determines upper and lower bounds for the technical efficiency through the limits of the intervals after decomposition. Based on the interval scores, DMUs are then classified into three classes, namely, the strictly efficient, weakly efficient and inefficient. An intuitive ranking approach is presented for the respective classes. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the evaluation of bank branches. © 2013.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.

Function interval arithmetic

We propose an arithmetic of function intervals as a basis for convenient rigorous numerical computation. Function intervals can be used as mathematical objects in their own right or as enclosures of functions over the reals. We present two areas of application of function interval arithmetic and associated software that implements the arithmetic: (1) Validated ordinary differential equation solving using the AERN library and within the Acumen hybrid system modeling tool. (2) Numerical theorem proving using the PolyPaver prover. © 2014 Springer-Verlag.

Subject identification via ECG fiducial-based systems:influence of the type of QT interval correction

Electrocardiography (ECG) has been recently proposed as biometric trait for identification purposes. Intra-individual variations of ECG might affect identification performance. These variations are mainly due to Heart Rate Variability (HRV). In particular, HRV causes changes in the QT intervals along the ECG waveforms. This work is aimed at analysing the influence of seven QT interval correction methods (based on population models) on the performance of ECG-fiducial-based identification systems. In addition, we have also considered the influence of training set size, classifier, classifier ensemble as well as the number of consecutive heartbeats in a majority voting scheme. The ECG signals used in this study were collected from thirty-nine subjects within the Physionet open access database. Public domain software was used for fiducial points detection. Results suggested that QT correction is indeed required to improve the performance. However, there is no clear choice among the seven explored approaches for QT correction (identification rate between 0.97 and 0.99). MultiLayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine seemed to have better generalization capabilities, in terms of classification performance, with respect to Decision Tree-based classifiers. No such strong influence of the training-set size and the number of consecutive heartbeats has been observed on the majority voting scheme.

Coverage versus supply cost in facility location:physics of frustrated spin systems

A comprehensive coverage is crucial for communication, supply, and transportation networks, yet it is limited by the requirement of extensive infrastructure and heavy energy consumption. Here, we draw an analogy between spins in antiferromagnet and outlets in supply networks, and apply techniques from the studies of disordered systems to elucidate the effects of balancing the coverage and supply costs on the network behavior. A readily applicable, coverage optimization algorithm is derived. Simulation results show that magnetized and antiferromagnetic domains emerge and coexist to balance the need for coverage and energy saving. The scaling of parameters with system size agrees with the continuum approximation in two dimensions and the tree approximation in random graphs. Due to frustration caused by the competition between coverage and supply cost, a transition between easy and hard computation regimes is observed. We further suggest a local expansion approach to greatly simplify the message updates which shed light on simplifications in other problems. © 2014 American Physical Society.