Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce two novel techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we apply two novel techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar catterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most conventional techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce three related techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Estimating conditional probability densities for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce three novel techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Supporting interoperable interpolation: the INTAMAP approach

In many Environmental Information Systems the actual observations arise from a discrete monitoring network which might be rather heterogeneous in both location and types of measurements made. In this paper we describe the architecture and infrastructure for a system, developed as part of the EU FP6 funded INTAMAP project, to provide a service oriented solution that allows the construction of an interoperable, automatic, interpolation system. This system will be based on the Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Feature Service (WFS) standard. The essence of our approach is to extend the GML3.1 observation feature to include information about the sensor using SensorML, and to further extend this to incorporate observation error characteristics. Our extended WFS will accept observations, and will store them in a database. The observations will be passed to our R-based interpolation server, which will use a range of methods, including a novel sparse, sequential kriging method (only briefly described here) to produce an internal representation of the interpolated field resulting from the observations currently uploaded to the system. The extended WFS will then accept queries, such as ‘What is the probability distribution of the desired variable at a given point’, ‘What is the mean value over a given region’, or ‘What is the probability of exceeding a certain threshold at a given location’. To support information-rich transfer of complex and uncertain predictions we are developing schema to represent probabilistic results in a GML3.1 (object-property) style. The system will also offer more easily accessible Web Map Service and Web Coverage Service interfaces to allow users to access the system at the level of complexity they require for their specific application. Such a system will offer a very valuable contribution to the next generation of Environmental Information Systems in the context of real time mapping for monitoring and security, particularly for systems that employ a service oriented architecture.

"Crack down on the celebrity junkies": does media coverage of celebrity drug use pose a risk to young people?

This study analysed news media content to examine the role played by celebrity drug use in young people's perceptions of drug use. We know that young people have access to discourses of drug use through music and other media which may emphasise short term gains (of pleasure or sexual success) over longer term health and social problems. This study goes beyond a simple modelling approach by using Media Framing Analysis (MFA) to take an in-depth look at the messages themselves and how they are 'framed'. New stories about Amy Winehouse's drug use were used and we conducted focus groups with young people asking them questions about drugs, celebrity and the media. Frames identified include: 'troubled genius', 'losing patience' and 'glamorization or gritty realism'. Initially, the press championed Winehouse's musical talent but soon began to tire of her recklessness; the participants tended to be unimpressed with Winehouse's drug use, characterising her as a promising artist who had 'gone off the rails'. Young people were far more critical of Winehouse than might be expected, demonstrating that concerns about the influence of celebrity drug use and its impact on future health risk behaviour among young people may have been over-simplified and exaggerated. This study illustrates the need to understand young people and their frames of reference within popular culture when designing drug awareness information relevant to them. Furthermore, it indicates that critical media skills analysis may contribute to health risk education programmes related to drug use.

Bandwidth management of WiMAX systems and performance modeling

WiMAX has been introduced as a competitive alternative for metropolitan broadband wireless access technologies. It is connection oriented and it can provide very high data rates, large service coverage, and flexible quality of services (QoS). Due to the large number of connections and flexible QoS supported by WiMAX, the uplink access in WiMAX networks is very challenging since the medium access control (MAC) protocol must efficiently manage the bandwidth and related channel allocations. In this paper, we propose and investigate a cost-effective WiMAX bandwidth management scheme, named the WiMAX partial sharing scheme (WPSS), in order to provide good QoS while achieving better bandwidth utilization and network throughput. The proposed bandwidth management scheme is compared with a simple but inefficient scheme, named the WiMAX complete sharing scheme (WCPS). A maximum entropy (ME) based analytical model (MEAM) is proposed for the performance evaluation of the two bandwidth management schemes. The reason for using MEAM for the performance evaluation is that MEAM can efficiently model a large-scale system in which the number of stations or connections is generally very high, while the traditional simulation and analytical (e.g., Markov models) approaches cannot perform well due to the high computation complexity. We model the bandwidth management scheme as a queuing network model (QNM) that consists of interacting multiclass queues for different service classes. Closed form expressions for the state and blocking probability distributions are derived for those schemes. Simulation results verify the MEAM numerical results and show that WPSS can significantly improve the network's performance compared to WCPS.

Asymptotically exact probability distribution for the Sinai model with finite drift

We obtain the exact asymptotic result for the disorder-averaged probability distribution function for a random walk in a biased Sinai model and show that it is characterized by a creeping behavior of the displacement moments with time, similar to v(mu n), where mu <1 is dimensionless mean drift. We employ a method originated in quantum diffusion which is based on the exact mapping of the problem to an imaginary-time Schrodinger equation. For nonzero drift such an equation has an isolated lowest eigenvalue separated by a gap from quasicontinuous excited states, and the eigenstate corresponding to the former governs the long-time asymptotic behavior.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.

Bit-error probability for direct detection of optical RZ signal degraded by ASE noise and timing jitter

We analyze theoretically the interplay between optical return-to-zero signal degradation due to timing jitter and additive amplified-spontaneous-emission noise. The impact of these two factors on the performance of a square-law direct detection receiver is also investigated. We derive an analytical expression for the bit-error probability and quantitatively determine the conditions when the contributions of the effects of timing jitter and additive noise to the bit error rate can be treated separately. The analysis of patterning effects is also presented. © 2007 IEEE.

Non-Gaussian error probability in optical soliton transmission

We find the probability distribution of the fluctuating parameters of a soliton propagating through a medium with additive noise. Our method is a modification of the instanton formalism (method of optimal fluctuation) based on a saddle-point approximation in the path integral. We first solve consistently a fundamental problem of soliton propagation within the framework of noisy nonlinear Schrödinger equation. We then consider model modifications due to in-line (filtering, amplitude and phase modulation) control. It is examined how control elements change the error probability in optical soliton transmission. Even though a weak noise is considered, we are interested here in probabilities of error-causing large fluctuations which are beyond perturbation theory. We describe in detail a new phenomenon of soliton collapse that occurs under the combined action of noise, filtering and amplitude modulation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.

A fast XPS study of sulphate promoted propene decomposition over Pt{111}

SO2 oxidation has been followed by Fast XPS over Pt{111}. Preadsorbed oxygen reduces the low temperature saturation coverage of SO2 with respect to the clean surface. Heating a mixed O2/SO2 adlayer results in efficient oxidation of both upright and flat-lying SO2 molecules to surface-bound SO4. Sulphate decomposes above room temperature liberating gas-phase SO2 and SO3. Propene adsorbs molecularly at 100 K over clean Pt{111} and dehydrogenates above 250 K to form a stable propylidyne adlayer, which in turn decomposes above 400 K to form graphitic carbon. Preadsorbed surface sulphate enhances the sticking probability of propene via formation of an alkyl-sulphate complex. Thermal decomposition of this complex accounts for low temperature propene combustion and is accompanied by atomic sulpur deposition. Propylidyne forms as on clean Pt but is less reactive undergoing partial oxidation above 450 K with residual surface oxygen.

An improved conflicting evidence combination approach based on a new supporting probability distance

To avoid counter-intuitive result of classical Dempster's combination rule when dealing with highly conflict information, many improved combination methods have been developed through modifying the basic probability assignments (BPAs) of bodies of evidence (BOEs) by using a certain measure of the degree of conflict or uncertain information, such as Jousselme's distance, the pignistic probability distance and the ambiguity measure. However, if BOEs contain some non-singleton elements and the differences among their BPAs are larger than 0.5, the current conflict measure methods have limitations in describing the interrelationship among the conflict BOEs and may even lead to wrong combination results. In order to solve this problem, a new distance function, which is called supporting probability distance, is proposed to characterize the differences among BOEs. With the new distance, the information of how much a focal element is supported by the other focal elements in BOEs can be given. Also, a new combination rule based on the supporting probability distance is proposed for the combination of the conflicting evidences. The credibility and the discounting factor of each BOE are generated by the supporting probability distance and the weighted BOEs are combined directly using Dempster's rules. Analytical results of numerical examples show that the new distance has a better capability of describing the interrelationships among BOEs, especially for the highly conflicting BOEs containing non-singleton elements and the proposed new combination method has better applicability and effectiveness compared with the existing methods.