24 resultados para Counterfactual Thinking
em Aston University Research Archive
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Increasing the supply of entrepreneurs reduces unemployment and accelerates economic growth (Acs, 2006; Audretsch, 2007; Santarelli et el. 2009; Campbell, 1996; Carree & Thurik, 1996). The supply of entrepreneurs depends on the entrepreneurial intention and activity of the people (Kruger & Brazeal, 1994). Existing behavioural theories explain that entrepreneurial activity is an attitude driven process which is mediated by intention and regulated by behavioural control. These theories are: Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991; 2002, 2012); Entrepreneurial Event Model (Shapiro & Shokol, 1982), and Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1977; 1986; 2012). Meta-analysis of existing behavioural theories in different fields found that the theories are more effective to analyse behavioural intention and habitual behaviour, but less effective to analyse long-term and risky behaviour (McEachan et al., 2011). The objective of this dissertation is to improve entrepreneurship behaviour theory to advance our understanding of the determinants of the entrepreneurial intention and activity. To achieve this objective we asked three compelling questions in our research. These are: Firstly, why do differences exist in entrepreneurship among age groups. Secondly, how can we improve the theory to analyse entrepreneurial intention and behaviour? And, thirdly, is there any relationship between counterfactual or regretful thinking and entrepreneurial intention? We address these three questions in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of the dissertation. Earlier studies have identified that there is an inverse U shaped relationship between age and entrepreneurship (Parker, 2004; Hart et al., 2004). In our study, we explain the reasons for this inverse U shape (Chapter 2). To analyse the reasons we use Cognitive Life Cycle theory and Disuse theory. We assume that the stage in the life cycle of an individual moderates the influence of opportunity identification and skill to start a business. In our study, we analyse the moderation effect in early stage entrepreneurship and in serial entrepreneurship. In Chapter 3, the limitations of existing psychological theories are discussed, and a competency value theory of entrepreneurship (CVTE) is proposed to overcome the limitations and extend existing theories. We use a ‘weighted competency’ variable instead of a ‘perceived behavioural control’ variable for the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and self-efficacy variable for social cognitive theory. Weighted competency is the perceived competency ranking assigned by an individual for his total competencies to be an entrepreneur. The proposed theory was tested in a pilot survey in the UK and in a national adult population survey in a South Asian Country. The results show a significant relationship between competencies and entrepreneurial intention, and weighted competencies and entrepreneurial behaviour as per CVTE. To improve the theory further, in Chapter 4, we test the relationship between counterfactual thinking and entrepreneurial intention. Studies in cognitive psychology identify that ‘upward counterfactual thinking’ influences intention and behaviour (Epstude & Rose, 2008; Smallman & Roese, 2009). Upward counterfactual thinking is regretful thinking for missed opportunities of a problem. This study addresses the question of how an individual’s regretful thinking affects his or her future entrepreneurial career intention. To do so, we conducted a study among students in a business school in the UK, and we found that counterfactual thinking modifies the influence of attitude and opportunity identification in entrepreneurial career intention.
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This paper departs from this point to consider whether and how crisis thinking contributes to practices of affirmative critique and transformative social action in late-capitalist societies. I argue that different deployments of crisis thinking have different ‘affect-effects’ and consequences for ethical and political practice. Some work to mobilize political action through articulating a politics of fear, assuming that people take most responsibility for the future when they fear the alternatives. Other forms of crisis thinking work to heighten critical awareness by disrupting existential certainty, asserting an ‘ethics of ambiguity’ which assumes that the continuous production of uncertain futures is a fundamental part of the human condition (de Beauvoir, 2000). In this paper, I hope to illustrate that the first deployment of crisis thinking can easily justify the closing down of political debate, discouraging radical experimentation and critique for the sake of resolving problems in a timely and decisive way. The second approach to crisis thinking, on the other hand, has greater potential to enable intellectual and political alterity in everyday life—but one that poses considerable challenges for our understandings of and responses to climate change...
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Original Paper European Journal of Information Systems (2001) 10, 135–146; doi:10.1057/palgrave.ejis.3000394 Organisational learning—a critical systems thinking discipline P Panagiotidis1,3 and J S Edwards2,4 1Deloitte and Touche, Athens, Greece 2Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK Correspondence: Dr J S Edwards, Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK. E-mail: j.s.edwards@aston.ac.uk 3Petros Panagiotidis is Manager responsible for the Process and Systems Integrity Services of Deloitte and Touche in Athens, Greece. He has a BSc in Business Administration and an MSc in Management Information Systems from Western International University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA; an MSc in Business Systems Analysis and Design from City University, London, UK; and a PhD degree from Aston University, Birmingham, UK. His doctorate was in Business Systems Analysis and Design. His principal interests now are in the ERP/DSS field, where he serves as project leader and project risk managment leader in the implementation of SAP and JD Edwards/Cognos in various major clients in the telecommunications and manufacturing sectors. In addition, he is responsible for the development and application of knowledge management systems and activity-based costing systems. 4John S Edwards is Senior Lecturer in Operational Research and Systems at Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK. He holds MA and PhD degrees (in mathematics and operational research respectively) from Cambridge University. His principal research interests are in knowledge management and decision support, especially methods and processes for system development. He has written more than 30 research papers on these topics, and two books, Building Knowledge-based Systems and Decision Making with Computers, both published by Pitman. Current research work includes the effect of scale of operations on knowledge management, interfacing expert systems with simulation models, process modelling in law and legal services, and a study of the use of artifical intelligence techniques in management accounting. Top of pageAbstract This paper deals with the application of critical systems thinking in the domain of organisational learning and knowledge management. Its viewpoint is that deep organisational learning only takes place when the business systems' stakeholders reflect on their actions and thus inquire about their purpose(s) in relation to the business system and the other stakeholders they perceive to exist. This is done by reflecting both on the sources of motivation and/or deception that are contained in their purpose, and also on the sources of collective motivation and/or deception that are contained in the business system's purpose. The development of an organisational information system that captures, manages and institutionalises meaningful information—a knowledge management system—cannot be separated from organisational learning practices, since it should be the result of these very practices. Although Senge's five disciplines provide a useful starting-point in looking at organisational learning, we argue for a critical systems approach, instead of an uncritical Systems Dynamics one that concentrates only on the organisational learning practices. We proceed to outline a methodology called Business Systems Purpose Analysis (BSPA) that offers a participatory structure for team and organisational learning, upon which the stakeholders can take legitimate action that is based on the force of the better argument. In addition, the organisational learning process in BSPA leads to the development of an intrinsically motivated information organisational system that allows for the institutionalisation of the learning process itself in the form of an organisational knowledge management system. This could be a specific application, or something as wide-ranging as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation. Examples of the use of BSPA in two ERP implementations are presented.
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The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.
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This paper takes a critical and evaluative stance toward micro-activity-based approaches to understanding strategy. It argues that such approaches bring with them important theoretical and empirical challenges. The paper argues against a tendency to reductionism without equal emphasis to the contextual influences that bound micro-strategising. Finally, the paper argues for a more international and comparative approach to micro-strategy studies than has currently been the case.
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Guest editorial
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Purpose – The international nuclear community continues to face the challenge of managing both the legacy waste and the new wastes that emerge from ongoing energy production. The UK is in the early stages of proposing a new convention for its nuclear industry, that is: waste minimisation through closely managing the radioactive source which creates the waste. This paper proposes a new technique (called waste and source material operability study (WASOP)) to qualitatively analyse a complex, waste-producing system to minimise avoidable waste and thus increase the protection to the public and the environment. Design/methodology/approach – WASOP critically considers the systemic impact of up and downstream facilities on the minimisation of nuclear waste in a facility. Based on the principles of HAZOP, the technique structures managers' thinking on the impact of mal-operations in interlinking facilities in order to identify preventative actions to reduce the impact on waste production of those mal-operations.' Findings – WASOP was tested with a small group of experienced nuclear regulators and was found to support their qualitative examination of waste minimisation and help them to work towards developing a plan of action. Originality/value – Given the newness of this convention, the wider methodology in which WASOP sits is still in development. However, this paper communicates the latest thinking from nuclear regulators on decision-making methodology for supporting waste minimisation and is hoped to form part of future regulatory guidance. WASOP is believed to have widespread potential application to the minimisation of many other forms of waste, including that from other energy sectors and household/general waste.
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After a consideration of visual thinking in science the role of such thinking in neuroscience is discussed. Three instances are examined - cortical column, retina, impulse - and it is argued that visual thinking is employed, though in different ways, in each. It lies at the core of neurobiological thought.
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This thesis proposes that despite many experimental studies of thinking, and the development of models of thinking, such as Bruner's (1966) enactive, iconic and symbolic developmental modes, the imagery and inner verbal strategies used by children need further investigation to establish a coherent, theoretical basis from which to create experimental curricula for direct improvement of those strategies. Five hundred and twenty-three first, second and third year comprehensive school children were tested on 'recall' imagery, using a modified Betts Imagery Test; and a test of dual-coding processes (Paivio, 1971, p.179), by the P/W Visual/Verbal Questionnaire, measuring 'applied imagery' and inner verbalising. Three lines of investigation were pursued: 1. An investigation a. of hypothetical representational strategy differences between boys and girls; and b. the extent to which strategies change with increasing age. 2. The second and third year children's use of representational processes, were taken separately and compared with performance measures of perception, field independence, creativity, self-sufficiency and self-concept. 3. The second and third year children were categorised into four dual-coding strategy groups: a. High Visual/High Verbal b. Low Visual/High Verbal c. High Visual/Low Verbal d. Low Visual/Low Verbal These groups were compared on the same performance measures. The main result indicates that: 1. A hierarchy of dual-coding strategy use can be identified that is significantly related (.01, Binomial Test) to success or failure in the performance measures: the High Visual/High Verbal group registering the highest scores, the Low Visual/High Verbal and High Visual/Low Verbal groups registering intermediate scores, and the Low Visual/Low Verbal group registering the lowest scores on the performance measures. Subsidiary results indicate that: 2. Boys' use of visual strategies declines, and of verbal strategies increases, with age; girls' recall imagery strategy increases with age. Educational implications from the main result are discussed, the establishment of experimental curricula proposed, and further research suggested.
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In testing for the self-serving bias in performance evaluation, the authors propose that comparing managers' counterfactual and prefactual thoughts about subordinates' performance is more conclusive than the attributional approach and also offers practical advantages. In a study with 120 managers, a 4-way interaction of subordinate performance, temporal perspective, direction, and reference confirmed the predicted pattern. Managers' thoughts about how a weak performance could have been enhanced had external references, but thoughts about how such a performance could be enhanced in the future focused on the leader. This asymmetry was only observed for weak performance. Results are discussed with regard to biases in leaders' performance evaluations and to how counter- and prefactual thoughts could be used for leadership research and practice.
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Recent years have seen a significant increase in the importance of environmental protection and sustainability to consumers, policy makers, and society in general. Reflecting this, most organizations are at least aware of this new agenda and wish to be seen as taking steps to improve behaviors in this regard. However, there appears to be a gap between this evolving agenda and the comparatively low level of knowledge that marketing managers actually have of the environmental impact of their own functional decisions. We suggest that this low knowledge level may be due, in part, to the marketplace focus of foundational marketing educational programs, and we attempt to show how broadening the horizons of marketing courses can help students (i.e., future managers) more deeply understand the environmental consequences of their actions. We demonstrate the use of a novel business game, based on the Life Cycle Assessment method, as the foundational cornerstone for the development of a broad understanding of the environmental impact of marketing decisions and actions for the entire life cycle of a product—from raw material extraction to ultimate disposal. The results of an empirical study show that this approach increases students’ appreciation for, and understanding of, these fundamental environmental sustainability concepts.