Development of rapid capital cost estimation techniques for the chemical processing industries

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An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Computer integrated system for form-roll manufacture

Computer integrated manufacture has brought about great advances in manufacturing technology and its recognition is world wide. Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections, and in particular the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is but one such area where computer integrated manufacture can make a positive contribution. The work reported in this thesis, concerned with the development of an integrated manufacturing system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls, was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A suit of computer programs, written in FORTRAN 77, have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture including cost estimation and stock control aids. The first phase of the development programme dealt with the establishment of CAD facilities for form-roll design, comprising the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, the roll design and the interactive roll editor program. Concerning the CAM facilities, dealt with in the second phase, an expert system roll machining processor and a general post-processor have been developed for considering the roll geometry and automatically generating NC tape programs for any required CNC lathe system. These programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated manufacturing software system, on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of the integrated system has been found beneficial in all aspects of form-roll design and manufacture. Design and manufacturing lead times have been reduced by several weeks, quality has improved considerably and productivity has increased. The work has also demonstrated the promising nature of the expert systems approach to computer integrated manufacture.

Low-cost fully integrated fiber Bragg grating interrogation system

Fiber Bragg gratings can be used for monitoring different parameters in a wide variety of materials and constructions. The interrogation of fiber Bragg gratings traditionally consists of an expensive and spacious peak tracking or spectrum analyzing unit which needs to be deployed outside the monitored structure. We present a dynamic low-cost interrogation system for fiber Bragg gratings which can be integrated with the fiber itself, limiting the fragile optical in- and outcoupling interfaces and providing a compact, unobtrusive driving and read-out unit. The reported system is based on an embedded Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) which is tuned dynamically at 1 kHz and an embedded photodiode. Fiber coupling is provided through a dedicated 45° micromirror yielding a 90° in-the-plane coupling and limiting the total thickness of the fiber coupled optoelectronic package to 550 µm. The red-shift of the VCSEL wavelength is providing a full reconstruction of the spectrum with a range of 2.5 nm. A few-mode fiber with fiber Bragg gratings at 850 nm is used to prove the feasibility of this low-cost and ultra-compact interrogation approach.

Low-cost fully integrated fiber Bragg grating interrogation system

Fiber Bragg gratings can be used for monitoring different parameters in a wide variety of materials and constructions. The interrogation of fiber Bragg gratings traditionally consists of an expensive and spacious peak tracking or spectrum analyzing unit which needs to be deployed outside the monitored structure. We present a dynamic low-cost interrogation system for fiber Bragg gratings which can be integrated with the fiber itself, limiting the fragile optical in- and outcoupling interfaces and providing a compact, unobtrusive driving and read-out unit. The reported system is based on an embedded Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) which is tuned dynamically at 1 kHz and an embedded photodiode. Fiber coupling is provided through a dedicated 45° micromirror yielding a 90° in-the-plane coupling and limiting the total thickness of the fiber coupled optoelectronic package to 550 µm. The red-shift of the VCSEL wavelength is providing a full reconstruction of the spectrum with a range of 2.5 nm. A few-mode fiber with fiber Bragg gratings at 850 nm is used to prove the feasibility of this low-cost and ultra-compact interrogation approach.

Tactile sensing with fibre Bragg gratings and neural networks

Fibre Bragg grating sensors are usually expensive to interrogate, and part of this thesis describes a low cost interrogation system for a group of such devices which can be indefinitely scaled up for larger numbers of sensors without requiring an increasingly broadband light source. It incorporates inherent temperature correction and also uses fewer photodiodes than the number or sensors it interrogates, using neural networks to interpret the photodiode data. A novel sensing arrangement using an FBG grating encapsulated in a silicone polymer is presented. This sensor is capable of distinguishing between different surface profiles with ridges 0.5 to 1mm deep and 2mm pitch and either triangular, semicircular or square in profile. Early experiments using neural networks to distinguish between these profiles are also presented. The potential applications for tactile sensing systems incorporating fibre Bragg gratings and neural networks are explored.

Generation of optical frequency combs in fibres:an optical pulse analysis

The innovation of optical frequency combs (OFCs) generated in passive mode-locked lasers has provided astronomy with unprecedented accuracy for wavelength calibration in high-resolution spectroscopy in research areas such as the discovery of exoplanets or the measurement of fundamental constants. The unique properties of OCFs, namely a highly dense spectrum of uniformly spaced emission lines of nearly equal intensity over the nominal wavelength range, is not only beneficial for high-resolution spectroscopy. Also in the low- to medium-resolution domain, the OFCs hold the promise to revolutionise the calibration techniques. Here, we present a novel method for generation of OFCs. As opposed to the mode-locked laser-based approach that can be complex, costly, and difficult to stabilise, we propose an all optical fibre-based system that is simple, compact, stable, and low-cost. Our system consists of three optical fibres where the first one is a conventional single-mode fibre, the second one is an erbium-doped fibre and the third one is a highly nonlinear low-dispersion fibre. The system is pumped by two equally intense continuous-wave (CW) lasers. To be able to control the quality and the bandwidth of the OFCs, it is crucial to understand how optical solitons arise out of the initial modulated CW field in the first fibre. Here, we numerically investigate the pulse evolution in the first fibre using the technique of the solitons radiation beat analysis. Having applied this technique, we realised that formation of higherorder solitons is supported in the low-energy region, whereas, in the high-energy region, Kuznetsov-Ma solitons appear.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Achieving cost competitiveness with an agent based integrated process planning and production scheduling system

From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.

Estimation of the production cost of fast pyrolysis bio-oil

A number of papers and reports covering the techno-economic analysis of bio-oil production has been published. These have had different scopes, use different feedstocks and reflected national cost structures. This paper reviews and compares their cost estimates and the experimental results that underpin them. A comprehensive cost and performance model was produced based on consensus data from the previous studies or stated scenarios where data is not available that reflected UK costs. The model takes account sales of bio-char that is a co-product of pyrolysis and the electricity consumption of the pyrolysis plant and biomass pre-processing plants. It was concluded that it should be able to produce bio-oil in the UK from energy crops for a similar cost as distillate fuel oil. It was also found that there was little difference in the processing cost for woodchips and baled miscanthus. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

A low-cost remote sensing system for agricultural applications

This research develops a low cost remote sensing system for use in agricultural applications. The important features of the system are that it monitors the near infrared and it incorporates position and attitude measuring equipment allowing for geo-rectified images to be produced without the use of ground control points. The equipment is designed to be hand held and hence requires no structural modification to the aircraft. The portable remote sensing system consists of an inertia measurement unit (IMU), which is accelerometer based, a low-cost GPS device and a small format false colour composite digital camera. The total cost of producing such a system is below GBP 3000, which is far cheaper than equivalent existing systems. The design of the portable remote sensing device has eliminated bore sight misalignment errors from the direct geo-referencing process. A new processing technique has been introduced for the data obtained from these low-cost devices, and it is found that using this technique the image can be matched (overlaid) onto Ordnance Survey Master Maps at an accuracy compatible with precision agriculture requirements. The direct geo-referencing has also been improved by introducing an algorithm capable of correcting oblique images directly. This algorithm alters the pixels value, hence it is advised that image analysis is performed before image georectification. The drawback of this research is that the low-cost GPS device experienced bad checksum errors, which resulted in missing data. The Wide Area Augmented System (WAAS) correction could not be employed because the satellites could not be locked onto whilst flying. The best GPS data were obtained from the Garmin eTrex (15 m kinematic and 2 m static) instruments which have a highsensitivity receiver with good lock on capability. The limitation of this GPS device is the inability to effectively receive the P-Code wavelength, which is needed to gain the best accuracy when undertaking differential GPS processing. Pairing the carrier phase L1 with the pseudorange C/A-Code received, in order to determine the image coordinates by the differential technique, is still under investigation. To improve the position accuracy, it is recommended that a GPS base station should be established near the survey area, instead of using a permanent GPS base station established by the Ordnance Survey.

Fibre laser torsion sensor system using an excessively tilted fibre grating and low-cost time domain demodulation

In this paper, we report a simple fibre laser torsion sensor system using an intracavity tilted fibre grating as a torsion encoded loss filter. When the grating is subjected to twist, it induces loss to the cavity, thus affecting the laser oscillation build-up time. By measuring the build-up time, both twist direction and angle on the grating can be monitored. Using a low-cost photodiode and a two-channel digital oscilloscope, we have characterised the torsion sensing capability of this fibre laser system and obtained a torsion sensitivity of ~412µs/(rad/m) in the dynamic range from -150° to +150°.

A low-cost multimode fiber Bragg grating sensor system

A low-cost fiber optic sensor system based on multimode fiber and an LED light source is presented. A multimode fiber Bragg grating (MMFBG) element is used as a strain sensor. In a matched grating scheme, a MMFBG similar to the sensing one was used as a reference in the receiving unit. For detection of large wavelength shift we demonstrated the feasibility of MMFBG wavelength detection using a single mode fiber fused coupler edge filter. The high cost normally associated with wavelength interrogators for single mode fiber FBG sensors was overcome by the utilization of a low cost multimode fiber pigtailed LED light source. The multimode fiber sensing system has the potential of maintaining much of the advantages of its single mode FBG sensor system counterparts. The MMFBG sensing schemes could be used for short distance, high sensitivity, high speed, strain, temperature and acoustic sensing applications.