22 resultados para Correlation model

em Aston University Research Archive


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Purpose. To assess the relationship between macular pigment optical density (MPOD) and blood markers for antioxidant defense in otherwise healthy volunteers. Methods. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were subjected to blood analysis to detect the level of circulating glutathione in its reduced (GSH) and oxidized (GSSG) forms. The level of MPOD was measured using heterochromatic flicker photometry. Systemic blood pressure (BP) parameters, heart rate (HR), body mass index (BMI), and plasma levels of total, HDL, and LDL cholesterol and triglycerides (TGs) were also determined. Results. A simple correlation model revealed that the level of MPOD correlated significantly and positively with both GSH (P < 0.001) and t-GSH (P < 0.001) levels but not with those of GSSG (P > 0.05). Age, sex, systemic BP parameters, HR, BMI, and plasma levels of cholesterol and TGs did not have any influence on either MPOD or glutathione levels (all P > 0.05). In addition, a forward stepwise multiple regression analysis showed MPOD to have a significantly and independent correlation with GSH levels (ß = 0.63; P < 0.001). Conclusions. In otherwise healthy older individuals, there is a positive correlation between local and systemic antioxidant defense mechanisms.

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This paper extends the smooth transition conditional correlation model by studying for the first time the impact that illiquidity shocks have on stock market return comovement. We show that firms that experience shocks that increase illiquidity are less liquid than firms that experience shocks that decrease illiquidity. Shocks that increase illiquidity have no statistical impact on comovement. However, shocks that reduce illiquidity lead to a fall in comovement, a pattern that becomes stronger as the illiquidity of the firm increases. This discovery is consistent with increased transparency and an improvement in price efficiency. We find that a small number of firms experience a double illiquidity shock. For these firms, at the first shock, a rise in illiquidity reduces comovement while a fall in illiquidity raises comovement. The second shock partly reverses these changes as a rise in illiquidity is associated with a rise in comovement and a fall in illiquidity is associated with a fall in comovement. These results have important implications for portfolio construction and also for the measurement and evolution of market beta and the cost of capital as it suggests that investors can achieve higher returns for the same amount of market risk because of the greater diversification benefits that exist. We also find that illiquidity, friction, firm size and the pre-shock correlation are all associated with the magnitude of the correlation change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

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In this paper the performance of opening and closing returns, for the components of the FT-30 will be studied. It will be shown that for these stocks opening returns have higher volatility and a greater tendency towards negative serial correlation than closing returns. Unlike previous studies this contrasting performance cannot solely be attributed to differences in the trading mechanism across the trading day. All the stocks used in our sample trade thought the day using a uniform trading mechanism. In this paper, we suggest that it is differences in the speed that closing and opening returns adjust to new information that causes differences in return performance. By estimating the Amihud and Mendelson (1987) [Amihud, Yakov, & Mendelson, Haim (1987). Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation, Journal of Finance, 62 533-553.] partial adjustment model with noise, we show that opening returns have a tendency towards over-reaction, while closing returns have a tendency towards under-reaction. We suggest that it is these differences that cause a substantial proportion (although not all) of the asymmetric return patterns associated with opening and closing returns. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The aim of these studies was to compare the effect of liposome composition on physico-chemical characteristics and transfection efficacy of cationic liposomes both in vitro and in vivo. Comparison between 4 popularly used cationic lipids, showed 3b-N-(dimethylaminoethyl)carbamate (DC-Chol) to promote the highest transfect levels in cells in vitro with levels being at least 6 times higher than those of 1,2-di-O-octadecenyl-3-trimethylammonium propane (DOTMA). 1,2-dioleoyl-3-trimethylammonium-propane (DOTAP), and dimethyldioctadecylammonium (DDA) and approximately twice as efficient as dipalmitoyl-trimethylammonium-propane (DPTAP). To establish the role of the helper lipid, DC-Chol liposomes were formulated in combination with either 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE) or cholesterol (Chol) (1:1 molar ratio) with and without the addition of phosphatidyl choline. The choice of helper lipid incorporated within the bilayer was found to influence the formation of complexes, their resultant structure and their transfection efficiency in vitro, with SUV-DNA complexes containing optimum levels of DOPE giving higher transfection than those containing cholesterol. The inclusion of PC within the formulation also reduced transfection efficiency in vitro. However, when administered in vivo, SUV-DNA complexes composed of PC:Chol:DC-Chol at a molar ratio of 16:8:4 micromole/ml were the most effective at inducing splenocyte proliferation upon exposure to antigen in comparison to control spleens. These results demonstrate that there is no in vitro/in vivo correlation between the transfection efficacy of these liposome formulations and in vitro transfection in the above cell model cannot be taken as a reliable indicator for in vivo efficacy of DNA vaccines.

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The article deals with the CFD modelling of fast pyrolysis of biomass in an Entrained Flow Reactor (EFR). The Lagrangian approach is adopted for the particle tracking, while the flow of the inert gas is treated with the standard Eulerian method for gases. The model includes the thermal degradation of biomass to char with simultaneous evolution of gases and tars from a discrete biomass particle. The chemical reactions are represented using a two-stage, semi-global model. The radial distribution of the pyrolysis products is predicted as well as their effect on the particle properties. The convective heat transfer to the surface of the particle is computed using the Ranz-Marshall correlation.

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1. Pearson's correlation coefficient only tests whether the data fit a linear model. With large numbers of observations, quite small values of r become significant and the X variable may only account for a minute proportion of the variance in Y. Hence, the value of r squared should always be calculated and included in a discussion of the significance of r. 2. The use of r assumes that a bivariate normal distribution is present and this assumption should be examined prior to the study. If Pearson's r is not appropriate, then a non-parametric correlation coefficient such as Spearman's rs may be used. 3. A significant correlation should not be interpreted as indicating causation especially in observational studies in which there is a high probability that the two variables are correlated because of their mutual correlations with other variables. 4. In studies of measurement error, there are problems in using r as a test of reliability and the ‘intra-class correlation coefficient’ should be used as an alternative. A correlation test provides only limited information as to the relationship between two variables. Fitting a regression line to the data using the method known as ‘least square’ provides much more information and the methods of regression and their application in optometry will be discussed in the next article.

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Shropshire Energy Team initiated this study to examine consumption and associated emissions in the predominantly rural county of Shropshire. Current use of energy is not sustainable in the long term and there are various approaches to dealing with the environmental problems it creates. Energy planning by a local authority for a sustainable future requires detailed energy consumption and environmental information. This information would enable target setting and the implementation of policies designed to encourage energy efficiency improvements and exploitation of renewable energy resources. This could aid regeneration strategies by providing new employment opportunities. Associated reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions would help to meet national and international environmental targets. In the absence of this detailed information, the objective was to develop a methodology to assess energy consumption and emissions on a regional basis from 1990 onwards for all local planning authorities. This would enable a more accurate assessment of the relevant issues, such that plans are more appropriate and longer lasting. A first comprehensive set of data has been gathered from a wide range of sources and a strong correlation was found between population and energy consumption for a variety of regions across the UK. In this case the methodology was applied to the county of Shropshire to give, for the first time, estimates of primary fuel consumption, electricity consumption and associated emissions in Shropshire for 1990 to 2025. The estimates provide a suitable baseline for assessing the potential contribution renewable energy could play in meeting electricity demand in the country and in reducing emissions. The assessment indicated that in 1990 total primary fuel consumption was 63,518,018 GJ/y increasing to 119,956,465 GJ/y by 2025. This is associated with emissions of 1,129,626 t/y of carbon in 1990 rising to 1,303,282 t/y by 2025. In 1990, 22,565,713 GJ/y of the primary fuel consumption was used for generating electricity rising to 23,478,050 GJ/y in 2025. If targets to reduce primary fuel consumption are reached, then emissions of carbon would fall to 1,042,626 by 2025, if renewable energy targets were also reached then emissions of carbon would fall to 988,638 t/y by 2025.

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Safety enforcement practitioners within Europe and marketers, designers or manufacturers of consumer products need to determine compliance with the legal test of "reasonable safety" for consumer goods, to reduce the "risks" of injury to the minimum. To enable freedom of movement of products, a method for safety appraisal is required for use as an "expert" system of hazard analysis by non-experts in safety testing of consumer goods for implementation consistently throughout Europe. Safety testing approaches and the concept of risk assessment and hazard analysis are reviewed in developing a model for appraising consumer product safety which seeks to integrate the human factors contribution of risk assessment, hazard perception, and information processing. The model develops a system of hazard identification, hazard analysis and risk assessment which can be applied to a wide range of consumer products through use of a series of systematic checklists and matrices and applies alternative numerical and graphical methods for calculating a final product safety risk assessment score. It is then applied in its pilot form by selected "volunteer" Trading Standards Departments to a sample of consumer products. A series of questionnaires is used to select participating Trading Standards Departments, to explore the contribution of potential subjective influences, to establish views regarding the usability and reliability of the model and any preferences for the risk assessment scoring system used. The outcome of the two stage hazard analysis and risk assessment process is considered to determine consistency in results of hazard analysis, final decisions regarding the safety of the sample product and to determine any correlation in the decisions made using the model and alternative scoring methods of risk assessment. The research also identifies a number of opportunities for future work, and indicates a number of areas where further work has already begun.

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We report on a theoretical study of activated polarization pulling and de-correlation of signal and pump states of polarization based on an advanced vector model of a fiber Raman amplifier accounting for random birefringence and two-scale fiber spinning. As a result, we have found that it is possible to provide de-correlation and simultaneously suppress PDG and PMD to 1.2 dB and 0.035 ps/km1/2 respectively.

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This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

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In this paper, we present syllable-based duration modelling in the context of a prosody model for Standard Yorùbá (SY) text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications. Our prosody model is conceptualised around a modular holistic framework. This framework is implemented using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) techniques. An important feature of our R-Tree framework is its flexibility in that it facilitates the independent implementation of the different dimensions of prosody, i.e. duration, intonation, and intensity, using different techniques and their subsequent integration. We applied the Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) technique to model the duration dimension. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of FDT in duration modelling, we have also developed a Classification And Regression Tree (CART) based duration model using the same speech data. Each of these models was integrated into our R-Tree based prosody model. We performed both quantitative (i.e. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation (Corr)) and qualitative (i.e. intelligibility and naturalness) evaluations on the two duration models. The results show that CART models the training data more accurately than FDT. The FDT model, however, shows a better ability to extrapolate from the training data since it achieved a better accuracy for the test data set. Our qualitative evaluation results show that our FDT model produces synthesised speech that is perceived to be more natural than our CART model. In addition, we also observed that the expressiveness of FDT is much better than that of CART. That is because the representation in FDT is not restricted to a set of piece-wise or discrete constant approximation. We, therefore, conclude that the FDT approach is a practical approach for duration modelling in SY TTS applications. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This research describes a computerized model of human classification which has been constructed to represent the process by which assessments are made for psychodynamic psychotherapy. The model assigns membership grades (MGs) to clients so that the most suitable ones have high values in the therapy category. Categories consist of a hierarchy of components, one of which, ego strength, is analysed in detail to demonstrate the way it has captured the psychotherapist's knowledge. The bottom of the hierarchy represents the measurable factors being assessed during an interview. A questionnaire was created to gather the identified information and was completed by the psychotherapist after each assessment. The results were fed into the computerized model, demonstrating a high correlation between the model MGs and the suitability ratings of the psychotherapist (r = .825 for 24 clients). The model has successfully identified the relevant data involved in assessment and simulated the decision-making process of the expert. Its cognitive validity enables decisions to be explained, which means that it has potential for therapist training and also for enhancing the referral process, with benefits in cost effectiveness as well as in the reduction of trauma to clients. An adapted version measuring client improvement would give quantitative evidence for the benefit of therapy, thereby supporting auditing and accountability. © 1997 The British Psychological Society.

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Measuring variations in efficiency and its extension, eco-efficiency, during a restructuring period in different industries has always been a point of interest for regulators and policy makers. This paper assesses the impacts of restructuring of procurement in the Iranian power industry on the performance of power plants. We introduce a new slacks-based model for Malmquist-Luenberger (ML) Index measurement and apply it to the power plants to calculate the efficiency, eco-efficiency, and technological changes over the 8-year period (2003-2010) of restructuring in the power industry. The results reveal that although the restructuring had different effects on the individual power plants, the overall growth in the eco-efficiency of the sector was mainly due to advances in pure technology. We also assess the correlation between efficiency and eco-efficiency of the power plants, which indicates a close relationship between these two steps, thus lending support to the incorporation of environmental factors in efficiency analysis. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

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Experimental results are presented which show that the indentation size effect for pyramidal and spherical indenters can be correlated. For a pyramidal indenter, the hardness measured in crystalline materials usually increases with decreasing depth of penetration, which is known as the indentation size effect. Spherical indentation also shows an indentation size effect. However, for a spherical indenter, hardness is not affected by depth, but increases with decreasing sphere radius. The correlation for pyramidal and spherical indenter shapes is based on geometrically necessary dislocations and work-hardening. The Nix and Gao indentation size effect model (J. Mech. Phys. Solids 46 (1998) 411) for conical indenters is extended to indenters of various shapes and compared to the experimental results. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.