One date, one break?

This paper demonstrates that the conventional approach of using official liberalisation dates as the only existing breakdates could lead to inaccurate conclusions as to the effect of the underlying liberalisation policies. It also proposes an alternative paradigm for obtaining more robust estimates of volatility changes around official liberalisation dates and/or other important market events. By focusing on five East Asian emerging markets, all of which liberalised their financial markets in the late, and by using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change, it shows that (i) the detected breakdates in the volatility of stock market returns can be dramatically different to official liberalisation dates and (ii) the use of official liberalisation dates as breakdates can readily entail inaccurate inference. In contrast, the use of data-driven techniques for the detection of multiple structural changes leads to a richer and inevitably more accurate pattern of volatility evolution emerges in comparison with focussing on official liberalisation dates.

Phase noise tolerance study in coherent optical circular QAM transmissions with Viterbi- Viterbi carrier phase estimation

We present a performance evaluation of a non-conventional approach to implement phase noise tolerant optical systems with multilevel modulation formats. The performance of normalized Viterbi-Viterbi carrier phase estimation (V-V CPE) is investigated in detail for circular m-level quadrature amplitude modulation (C-mQAM) signals. The intrinsic property of C-mQAM constellation points with a uniform phase separation allows a straightforward employment of V-V CPE without the need to adapt constellation. Compared with conventional feed-forward CPE for square QAM signals, the simulated results show an enhanced tolerance of linewidth symbol duration product (ΔvTs) at a low sensitivity penalty by using feed-forward CPE structure with C-mQAM. This scheme can be easily upgraded to higher order modulations without inducing considerable complexity.

Control of cascaded DC-DC converter-based hybrid battery energy storage systems - Part I:stability Issue

There is an emerging application which uses a mixture of batteries within an energy storage system. These hybrid battery solutions may contain different battery types. A DC-side cascaded boost converters along with a module based distributed power sharing strategy has been proposed to cope with variations in battery parameters such as, state-of-charge and/or capacity. This power sharing strategy distributes the total power among the different battery modules according to these battery parameters. Each module controller consists of an outer voltage loop with an inner current loop where the desired control reference for each control loop needs to be dynamically varied according to battery parameters to undertake this sharing. As a result, the designed control bandwidth or stability margin of each module control loop may vary in a wide range which can cause a stability problem within the cascaded converter. This paper reports such a unique issue and thoroughly investigates the stability of the modular converter under the distributed sharing scheme. The paper shows that a cascaded PI control loop approach cannot guarantee the system stability throughout the operating conditions. A detailed analysis of the stability issue and the limitations of the conventional approach are highlighted. Finally in-depth experimental results are presented to prove the stability issue using a modular hybrid battery energy storage system prototype under various operating conditions.

Interpretation of the Superpave IDT strength test using a viscoelastic-damage constitutive model

This paper presents a new interpretation for the Superpave IDT strength test based on a viscoelastic-damage framework. The framework is based on continuum damage mechanics and the thermodynamics of irreversible processes with an anisotropic damage representation. The new approach introduces considerations for the viscoelastic effects and the damage accumulation that accompanies the fracture process in the interpretation of the Superpave IDT strength test for the identification of the Dissipated Creep Strain Energy (DCSE) limit from the test result. The viscoelastic model is implemented in a Finite Element Method (FEM) program for the simulation of the Superpave IDT strength test. The DCSE values obtained using the new approach is compared with the values obtained using the conventional approach to evaluate the validity of the assumptions made in the conventional interpretation of the test results. The result shows that the conventional approach over-estimates the DCSE value with increasing estimation error at higher deformation rates.

The TAP approach to intensive and extensive connectivity systems

The Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) approach was originally developed for analysing the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model in the study of spin glass models and has been employed since then mainly in the context of extensively connected systems whereby each dynamical variable interacts weakly with the others. Recently, we extended this method for handling general intensively connected systems where each variable has only O(1) connections characterised by strong couplings. However, the new formulation looks quite different with respect to existing analyses and it is only natural to question whether it actually reproduces known results for systems of extensive connectivity. In this chapter, we apply our formulation of the TAP approach to an extensively connected system, the Hopfield associative memory model, showing that it produces identical results to those obtained by the conventional formulation.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

Efficiency in Islamic and conventional banking:an international comparison

The paper investigates the efficiency of a sample of Islamic and conventional banks in 10 countries that operate Islamic banking for the period 1996–2002, using an output distance function approach. We obtain measures of efficiency after allowing for environmental influences such as country macroeconomic conditions, accessibility of banking services and bank type. While these factors are assumed to directly influence the shape of the technology, we assume that country dummies and bank size directly influence technical inefficiency. The parameter estimates highlight that during the sample period, Islamic banking appears to be associated with higher input usage. Furthermore, by allowing for bank size and international differences in the underlying inefficiency distributions, we are also able to demonstrate statistically significant differences in inefficiency related to these factors even after controlling for specific environmental characteristics and Islamic banking. Thus, for example, our results suggest that Sudan and Yemen have relatively higher inefficiency while Bahrain and Bangladesh have lower estimated inefficiency. Except for Sudan, where banks exhibits relatively strong returns to scale, most sample banks exhibit very slight returns to scale, although Islamic banks are found to have moderately higher returns to scale than conventional banks. While this suggests that Islamic banks may benefit from increased scale, we would emphasize that our results suggest that identifying and overcoming the factors that cause Islamic banks to have relatively low potential outputs for given input usage levels will be the key challenge for Islamic banking in the coming decades.

Design and development of a time of flight fast scattering spectrometer : a quantitative surface analysis technique and a new approach towards the experimental investigation of the surface particle interactions

A new surface analysis technique has been developed which has a number of benefits compared to conventional Low Energy Ion Scattering Spectrometry (LEISS). A major potential advantage arising from the absence of charge exchange complications is the possibility of quantification. The instrumentation that has been developed also offers the possibility of unique studies concerning the interaction between low energy ions and atoms and solid surfaces. From these studies it may also be possible, in principle, to generate sensitivity factors to quantify LEISS data. The instrumentation, which is referred to as a Time-of-Flight Fast Atom Scattering Spectrometer has been developed to investigate these conjecture in practice. The development, involved a number of modifications to an existing instrument, and allowed samples to be bombarded with a monoenergetic pulsed beam of either atoms or ions, and provided the capability to analyse the spectra of scattered atoms and ions separately. Further to this a system was designed and constructed to allow incident, exit and azimuthal angles of the particle beam to be varied independently. The key development was that of a pulsed, and mass filtered atom source; which was developed by a cyclic process of design, modelling and experimentation. Although it was possible to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the instrument, problems relating to surface contamination prevented the measurement of the neutralisation probabilities. However, these problems appear to be technical rather than scientific in nature, and could be readily resolved given the appropriate resources. Experimental spectra obtained from a number of samples demonstrate some fundamental differences between the scattered ion and neutral spectra. For practical non-ordered surfaces the ToF spectra are more complex than their LEISS counterparts. This is particularly true for helium scattering where it appears, in the absence of detailed computer simulation, that quantitative analysis is limited to ordered surfaces. Despite this limitation the ToFFASS instrument opens the way for quantitative analysis of the 'true' surface region to a wider range of surface materials.

A semantic modelling approach to knowledge based statistical software

The topic of this thesis is the development of knowledge based statistical software. The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Some of the issues involved in the development of knowledge based software are presented and a review is given of some of the systems that have been developed so far. The majority of these have moved away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed an expert systems approach. The thesis then proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented, the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package. This involved developing a semantic data model to represent some of the statistically relevant knowledge about data and identifying sets of requirements that should be met for the application of the statistical techniques to be valid. Those areas of statistics covered in the prototype are measures of association and tests of location.

Addressing missing data in geochemistry: a non-linear approach

Exploratory analysis of petroleum geochemical data seeks to find common patterns to help distinguish between different source rocks, oils and gases, and to explain their source, maturity and any intra-reservoir alteration. However, at the outset, one is typically faced with (a) a large matrix of samples, each with a range of molecular and isotopic properties, (b) a spatially and temporally unrepresentative sampling pattern, (c) noisy data and (d) often, a large number of missing values. This inhibits analysis using conventional statistical methods. Typically, visualisation methods like principal components analysis are used, but these methods are not easily able to deal with missing data nor can they capture non-linear structure in the data. One approach to discovering complex, non-linear structure in the data is through the use of linked plots, or brushing, while ignoring the missing data. In this paper we introduce a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. Generative topographic mapping enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, while also dealing with missing data. We show how using generative topographic mapping also provides an optimal method with which to replace missing values in two geochemical datasets, particularly where a large proportion of the data is missing.

Does institutional quality affect firm performance? Insights from a semiparametric approach

Using a novel modeling approach, and cross-country firm level data for the textiles industry, we examine the impact of institutional quality on firm performance. Our methodology allows us to estimate the marginal impact of institutional quality on productivity of each firm. Our results bring into question conventional wisdom about the desirable characteristics of market institutions, which is based on empirical evidence about the impact of institutional quality on the average firm. We demonstrate, for example, that once both the direct impact of a change in institutional quality on total factor productivity and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs are taken into account, an increase in labor market rigidity may have a positive impact on firm output, at least for some firms. We also demonstrate that there are significant intra-country variations in the marginal impact of institutional quality, such that the characteristics of “winners” and “losers” will have to be taken into account before policy is introduced to change institutional quality in any direction.

The efficiency and productivity of Malaysian banks:an output distance function approach

This study employs stochastic frontier analysis to analyze Malaysian commercial banks during 1996-2002, and particularly focuses on determining the impact of Islamic banking on performance. We derive both net and gross efficiency estimates, thereby demonstrating that differences in operating characteristics explain much of the difference in outputs between Malaysian banks. We also decompose productivity change into efficiency, technical, and scale change using a generalised Malmquist productivity index. On average, Malaysian banks experience mild decreasing return to scale and annual productivity change of 2.37 percent, with the latter driven primarily by technical change, which has declined over time. Our gross efficiency estimates suggest that Islamic banking is associated with higher input requirements. In addition, our productivity estimates indicate that the potential for full-fledged Islamic banks and conventional banks with Islamic banking operations to overcome the output disadvantages associated with Islamic banking are relatively limited. Merged banks are found to have higher input usage and lower productivity change, suggesting that bank mergers have not contributed positively to bank performance. Finally, our results suggest that while the East Asian financial crisis had an interim output-increasing effect in 1998, the crisis prompted a continuing negative impact on the output performance by increasing the volume of non-performing loans.

Efficiency in Islamic and conventional banking:an international comparison

The paper investigates the efficiency of a sample of Islamic and conventional banks in 10 countries that operate Islamic banking for the period 1996 to 2002, using an output distance function approach. We obtain measures of efficiency after allowing for environmental influences such as country macroeconomic conditions, accessibility of banking services and bank type. While these factors are assumed to directly influence the shape of the technology, we assume that country dummies directly influence technical inefficiency. The parameter estimates highlight that during the sample period, Islamic banking appear to be associated with higher input usage. Furthermore, by allowing for international differences in the underlying inefficiency distributions, we are also able to demonstrate statistically significant differences in efficiency across countries even after controlling for specific environmental characteristics and Islamic banking. Thus, for example, our results suggest that Sudan and Yemen have relatively higher inefficiency while Iran and Malaysia have lower estimated inefficiency. Except for Sudan, where banks exhibits relatively strong returns to scale, most sample banks exhibit very slight returns to scale, although Islamic banks are found to have moderately higher returns to scale than conventional banks. However while this suggests that Islamic banks may benefit from increased scale, we would emphasize that our results suggest that identifying and overcoming the factors that cause Islamic banks to have relatively high input requirements will be the key challenge for Islamic banking in the coming decades.

Early marketing matters:a time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides managers with a valuable tool to evaluate their allocation of marketing expenditures over time. An application of the model to many pharmaceutical products, estimated through (exact initial) Kalman filtering, indicates that both persistent and transient effects occur predominantly immediately after a brand's introduction. Subsequently, the size of the effects declines. The authors theoretically and empirically compare their methodology with methodology based on unit root testing and demonstrate that the need for unit root tests creates difficulties in applying conventional persistence modeling. The authors recommend that marketing models should either accommodate persistent effects that change over time or be applied to mature brands or limited time windows only.

Strategic sourcing:a combined QFD and AHP approach in manufacturing

Purpose – This paper aims to develop an integrated analytical approach, combining quality function deployment (QFD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, to enhance the effectiveness of sourcing decisions. Design/methodology/approach – In the approach, QFD is used to translate the company stakeholder requirements into multiple evaluating factors for supplier selection, which are used to benchmark the suppliers. AHP is used to determine the importance of evaluating factors and preference of each supplier with respect to each selection criterion. Findings – The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by applying it to a UK-based automobile manufacturing company. With QFD, the evaluating factors are related to the strategic intent of the company through the involvement of concerned stakeholders. This ensures successful strategic sourcing. The application of AHP ensures consistent supplier performance measurement using benchmarking approach. Research limitations/implications – The proposed integrated approach can be principally adopted in other decision-making scenarios for effective management of the supply chain. Practical implications – The proposed integrated approach can be used as a group-based decision support system for supplier selection, in which all relevant stakeholders are involved to identify various quantitative and qualitative evaluating criteria, and their importance. Originality/value – Various approaches that can deal with multiple and conflicting criteria have been adopted for the supplier selection. However, they fail to consider the impact of business objectives and the requirements of company stakeholders in the identification of evaluating criteria for strategic supplier selection. The proposed integrated approach outranks the conventional approaches to supplier selection and supplier performance measurement because the sourcing strategy and supplier selection are derived from the corporate/business strategy.