Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Insulin release from cultured B-cells

Established RlNm5F and lN111 R1 and newly available HlT-T15 and UMR 407/3 B-cell lines have been successfully maintained in vitro. With the exclusion of UMR 407/3 cells, all lines were continuously propagable. Doubling times and plating efficiencies for HlT-T15, RlNm5F, lN111 R1 and UMR 407/3 cells were 20 hours and 85%, 31 hours and 76%, 24 hours and 80% and 38 hours and 94% respectively. All the cell lines were anchorage dependent, but only UMR 407/3 cells grew to confluence. Only HlT-T15 and UMR 407/3 cells produced a true insulin response to glucose but glucose markedly increased the rate of D-[U14C]glucose oxidation by all the cell lines. Glucose induced insulin release from HlT-T15 cells was biphasic with an exaggerated first phase. Insulin release from HlT-T15, RlNm5F and IN111 R1 cells was stimulated by amino acids and sulphonylureas. Glucagon stimulated insulin release from HlT-T15 and RlNm5F cells while somatostatin and pancreatic polypeptide inhibited release. These observations suggest that net insulin release from the whole islet may be the result of significant paracrine interaction. HlT-T15 and RlNm5F cell insulin release was stimulated by forskolin and inhibited by imidazole. Ca2+ channel blockade and calmodulin inhibition suppressed insulin release from HlT-T15, RlNm5F and IN111 R1 cells. In addition phorbol esters stimulated insulin release from RlNm5F cells. These data implicate cAMP, Ca2+ and protein kinase-C in the regulation of insulin release from cultured B-cells. Acetylcholine increased insulin release from HlT-T15 and RlNm5F cells. Inhibition of the response by atropine confirmed the involvement of muscarinic receptors. HlT-T15 cell insulin release was also inhibited by adrenaline. These observations suggest a possible role for the autonomic nervous system in the modulation of insulin release. Preliminary studies with a human insulinoma maintained in monolayer culture have demonstrated a limited life span of some seven weeks, a continuous low level of insulin release but no insulin response to glucose challenge.

How do public private partnerships influence business school performance in English-speaking Caribbean?

This thesis addresses the question of how business schoolsestablished as public privatepartnerships (PPPs) within a regional university in the English-speaking Caribbean survived for over twenty-one years and achieved legitimacy in their environment. The aim of the study was to examine how public and private sector actors contributed to the evolution of the PPPs. A social network perspective provided a broad relational focus from which to explore the phenomenon and engage disciplinary and middle-rangetheories to develop explanations. Legitimacy theory provided an appropriate performance dimension from which to assess PPP success. An embedded multiple-case research design, with three case sites analysed at three levels including the country and university environment, the PPP as a firm and the subgroup level constituted the methodological framing of the research process. The analysis techniques included four methods but relied primarily on discourse and social network analysis of interview data from 40 respondents across the three sites. A staged analysis of the evolution of the firm provided the ‘time and effects’ antecedents which formed the basis for sense-making to arrive at explanations of the public-private relationship-influenced change. A conceptual model guided the study and explanations from the cross-case analysis were used to refine the process model and develop a dynamic framework and set of theoretical propositions that would underpin explanations of PPP success and legitimacy in matched contexts through analytical generalisation. The study found that PPP success was based on different models of collaboration and partner resource contribution that arose from a confluence of variables including the development of shared purpose, private voluntary control in corporate governance mechanisms and boundary spanning leadership. The study contributes a contextual theory that explains how PPPs work and a research agenda of ‘corporate governance as inspiration’ from a sociological perspective of ‘liquid modernity’. Recommendations for policy and management practice were developed.

Open-source mapping and services for Web-based land-cover validation

Monitoring land-cover changes on sites of conservation importance allows environmental problems to be detected, solutions to be developed and the effectiveness of actions to be assessed. However, the remoteness of many sites or a lack of resources means these data are frequently not available. Remote sensing may provide a solution, but large-scale mapping and change detection may not be appropriate, necessitating site-level assessments. These need to be easy to undertake, rapid and cheap. We present an example of a Web-based solution based on free and open-source software and standards (including PostGIS, OpenLayers, Web Map Services, Web Feature Services and GeoServer) to support assessments of land-cover change (and validation of global land-cover maps). Authorised users are provided with means to assess land-cover visually and may optionally provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in an assessment to a quantification of the proportions of land-cover types within a reference area. Versions of this tool have been developed for the TREES-3 initiative (Simonetti, Beuchle and Eva, 2011). This monitors tropical land-cover change through ground-truthing at latitude / longitude degree confluence points, and for monitoring of change within and around Important Bird Areas (IBAs) by Birdlife International and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB). In this paper we present results from the second of these applications. We also present further details on the potential use of the land-cover change assessment tool on sites of recognised conservation importance, in combination with NDVI and other time series data from the eStation (a system for receiving, processing and disseminating environmental data). We show how the tool can be used to increase the usability of earth observation data by local stakeholders and experts, and assist in evaluating the impact of protection regimes on land-cover change.

Topographical guidance of intervertebral disc cell growth in vitro:towards the development of tissue repair strategies for the anulus fibrosus

The anulus fibrosus (AF) of the intervertebral disc consists of concentric sheets of collagenous matrix that is synthesised during embryogenesis by aligned disc cells. This highly organised structure may be severely disrupted during disc degeneration and/or herniation. Cell scaffolds that incorporate topographical cues as contact guidance have been used successfully to promote the healing of injured tendons. Therefore, we have investigated the effects of topography on disc cell growth. We show that disc cells from the AF and nucleus pulposus (NP) behaved differently in monolayer culture on micro-grooved membranes of polycaprolactone (PCL). Both cell types aligned to and migrated along the membrane's micro-grooves and ridges, but AF cells were smaller (or less spread), more bipolar and better aligned to the micro-grooves than NP cells. In addition, AF cells were markedly more immunopositive for type I collagen, but less immunopositive for chondroitin-6-sulphated proteoglycans than NP cells. There was no evidence of extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition. Disc cells cultured on non-grooved PCL did not show any preferential alignment at sub-confluence and did not differ in their pattern of immunopositivity to those on grooved PCL. We conclude that substratum topography is effective in aligning disc cell growth and may be useful in tissue engineering for the AF. However, there is a need to optimise cell sources and/or environmental conditions (e.g. mechanical influences) to promote the synthesis of an aligned ECM.