Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Current practice and opinion in special schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales

This study seeks to describe current practice and opinion in schools for the maladjusted in England and Wales and to exarnlne how far this coincides with earlier descriptions. A review of the literature provides an account of this earlier work, and data accrued from questionnaires completed by 114 schools describe current practice and opinion. The study represents the most extensive empirical enquiry into the work of these schools since 1955 and provides a wide data basis for future research and assessment of progress and change. The data suggest that there is much communality of practice and opinion within the schools, with most schools emphasising their therapeutic rather than their educational purpose. The work is characterised by the wide use and perceived efficacy of warm, caring adult to child relationships, improvement of pupil self-image through success, and individual counselling and discussion, which permeate a structure of routine, discipline and educational concern. Specialised treatments are not used widely and involve only a minority of pupils. Practice tends to be in reference to conduct disordered pupils who are now perceived as the largest single disorder group within the schools, whereas previously neurotic disorders formed the largest single group. The majority of pupils are perceived as underachieving on entry and requiring remedial help: consequently the educational programme has a remedial bias. For staff, qualities of personality are considered to be more valuable than professional skills. The schools differ in the emphasis they allocate to one or more of four identified areas of treatment described as concern for pupils' needs; degree of pupil participation; theoretical orientation: and the use of external controls. There is a diminished reference to psychoanalytical theory and an increased reference to behaviourist theory relative to previous practice. Similarly, the use and perceived importance and effectiveness of pupil participation and unconditional affection has diminished.

Tense, aspect and modality in first and second language

Time after time… and aspect and mood. Over the last twenty five years, the study of time, aspect and - to a lesser extent - mood acquisition has enjoyed increasing popularity and a constant widening of its scope. In such a teeming field, what can be the contribution of this book? We believe that it is unique in several respects. First, this volume encompasses studies from different theoretical frameworks: functionalism vs generativism or function-based vs form-based approaches. It also brings together various sub-fields (first and second language acquisition, child and adult acquisition, bilingualism) that tend to evolve in parallel rather than learn from each other. A further originality is that it focuses on a wide range of typologically different languages, and features less studied languages such as Korean and Bulgarian. Finally, the book gathers some well-established scholars, young researchers, and even research students, in a rich inter-generational exchange, that ensures the survival but also the renewal and the refreshment of the discipline. The book at a glance The first part of the volume is devoted to the study of child language acquisition in monolingual, impaired and bilingual acquisition, while the second part focuses on adult learners. In this section, we will provide an overview of each chapter. The first study by Aviya Hacohen explores the acquisition of compositional telicity in Hebrew L1. Her psycholinguistic approach contributes valuable data to refine theoretical accounts. Through an innovating methodology, she gathers information from adults and children on the influence of definiteness, number, and the mass vs countable distinction on the constitution of a telic interpretation of the verb phrase. She notices that the notion of definiteness is mastered by children as young as 10, while the mass/count distinction does not appear before 10;7. However, this does not entail an adult-like use of telicity. She therefore concludes that beyond definiteness and noun type, pragmatics may play an important role in the derivation of Hebrew compositional telicity. For the second chapter we move from a Semitic language to a Slavic one. Milena Kuehnast focuses on the acquisition of negative imperatives in Bulgarian, a form that presents the specificity of being grammatical only with the imperfective form of the verb. The study examines how 40 Bulgarian children distributed in two age-groups (15 between 2;11-3;11, and 25 between 4;00 and 5;00) develop with respect to the acquisition of imperfective viewpoints, and the use of imperfective morphology. It shows an evolution in the recourse to expression of force in the use of negative imperatives, as well as the influence of morphological complexity on the successful production of forms. With Yi-An Lin’s study, we concentrate both on another type of informant and of framework. Indeed, he studies the production of children suffering from Specific Language Impairment (SLI), a developmental language disorder the causes of which exclude cognitive impairment, psycho-emotional disturbance, and motor-articulatory disorders. Using the Leonard corpus in CLAN, Lin aims to test two competing accounts of SLI (the Agreement and Tense Omission Model [ATOM] and his own Phonetic Form Deficit Model [PFDM]) that conflicts on the role attributed to spellout in the impairment. Spellout is the point at which the Computational System for Human Language (CHL) passes over the most recently derived part of the derivation to the interface components, Phonetic Form (PF) and Logical Form (LF). ATOM claims that SLI sufferers have a deficit in their syntactic representation while PFDM suggests that the problem only occurs at the spellout level. After studying the corpus from the point of view of tense / agreement marking, case marking, argument-movement and auxiliary inversion, Lin finds further support for his model. Olga Gupol, Susan Rohstein and Sharon Armon-Lotem’s chapter offers a welcome bridge between child language acquisition and multilingualism. Their study explores the influence of intensive exposure to L2 Hebrew on the development of L1 Russian tense and aspect morphology through an elicited narrative. Their informants are 40 Russian-Hebrew sequential bilingual children distributed in two age groups 4;0 – 4;11 and 7;0 - 8;0. They come to the conclusion that bilingual children anchor their narratives in perfective like monolinguals. However, while aware of grammatical aspect, bilinguals lack the full form-function mapping and tend to overgeneralize the imperfective on the principles of simplicity (as imperfective are the least morphologically marked forms), universality (as it covers more functions) and interference. Rafael Salaberry opens the second section on foreign language learners. In his contribution, he reflects on the difficulty L2 learners of Spanish encounter when it comes to distinguishing between iterativity (conveyed with the use of the preterite) and habituality (expressed through the imperfect). He examines in turn the theoretical views that see, on the one hand, habituality as part of grammatical knowledge and iterativity as pragmatic knowledge, and on the other hand both habituality and iterativity as grammatical knowledge. He comes to the conclusion that the use of preterite as a default past tense marker may explain the impoverished system of aspectual distinctions, not only at beginners but also at advanced levels, which may indicate that the system is differentially represented among L1 and L2 speakers. Acquiring the vast array of functions conveyed by a form is therefore no mean feat, as confirmed by the next study. Based on the prototype theory, Kathleen Bardovi-Harlig’s chapter focuses on the development of the progressive in L2 English. It opens with an overview of the functions of the progressive in English. Then, a review of acquisition research on the progressive in English and other languages is provided. The bulk of the chapter reports on a longitudinal study of 16 learners of L2 English and shows how their use of the progressive expands from the prototypical uses of process and continuousness to the less prototypical uses of repetition and future. The study concludes that the progressive spreads in interlanguage in accordance with prototype accounts. However, it suggests additional stages, not predicted by the Aspect Hypothesis, in the development from activities and accomplishments at least for the meaning of repeatedness. A similar theoretical framework is adopted in the following chapter, but it deals with a lesser studied language. Hyun-Jin Kim revisits the claims of the Aspect Hypothesis in relation to the acquisition of L2 Korean by two L1 English learners. Inspired by studies on L2 Japanese, she focuses on the emergence and spread of the past / perfective marker ¬–ess- and the progressive – ko iss- in the interlanguage of her informants throughout their third and fourth semesters of study. The data collected through six sessions of conversational interviews and picture description tasks seem to support the Aspect Hypothesis. Indeed learners show a strong association between past tense and accomplishments / achievements at the start and a gradual extension to other types; a limited use of past / perfective marker with states and an affinity of progressive with activities / accomplishments and later achievements. In addition, - ko iss– moves from progressive to resultative in the specific category of Korean verbs meaning wear / carry. While the previous contributions focus on function, Evgeniya Sergeeva and Jean-Pierre Chevrot’s is interested in form. The authors explore the acquisition of verbal morphology in L2 French by 30 instructed native speakers of Russian distributed in a low and high levels. They use an elicitation task for verbs with different models of stem alternation and study how token frequency and base forms influence stem selection. The analysis shows that frequency affects correct production, especially among learners with high proficiency. As for substitution errors, it appears that forms with a simple structure are systematically more frequent than the target form they replace. When a complex form serves as a substitute, it is more frequent only when it is replacing another complex form. As regards the use of base forms, the 3rd person singular of the present – and to some extent the infinitive – play this role in the corpus. The authors therefore conclude that the processing of surface forms can be influenced positively or negatively by the frequency of the target forms and of other competing stems, and by the proximity of the target stem to a base form. Finally, Martin Howard’s contribution takes up the challenge of focusing on the poorer relation of the TAM system. On the basis of L2 French data obtained through sociolinguistic interviews, he studies the expression of futurity, conditional and subjunctive in three groups of university learners with classroom teaching only (two or three years of university teaching) or with a mixture of classroom teaching and naturalistic exposure (2 years at University + 1 year abroad). An analysis of relative frequencies leads him to suggest a continuum of use going from futurate present to conditional with past hypothetic conditional clauses in si, which needs to be confirmed by further studies. Acknowledgements The present volume was inspired by the conference Acquisition of Tense – Aspect – Mood in First and Second Language held on 9th and 10th February 2008 at Aston University (Birmingham, UK) where over 40 delegates from four continents and over a dozen countries met for lively and enjoyable discussions. This collection of papers was double peer-reviewed by an international scientific committee made of Kathleen Bardovi-Harlig (Indiana University), Christine Bozier (Lund Universitet), Alex Housen (Vrije Universiteit Brussel), Martin Howard (University College Cork), Florence Myles (Newcastle University), Urszula Paprocka (Catholic University of Lublin), †Clive Perdue (Université Paris 8), Michel Pierrard (Vrije Universiteit Brussel), Rafael Salaberry (University of Texas at Austin), Suzanne Schlyter (Lund Universitet), Richard Towell (Salford University), and Daniel Véronique (Université d’Aix-en-Provence). We are very much indebted to that scientific committee for their insightful input at each step of the project. We are also thankful for the financial support of the Association for French Language Studies through its workshop grant, and to the Aston Modern Languages Research Foundation for funding the proofreading of the manuscript.

Spatial scaling in human peripheral vision

The observation that performance in many visual tasks can be made independent of eccentricity by increasing the size of peripheral stimuli according to the cortical magnification factor has dominated studies of peripheral vision for many years. However, it has become evident that the cortical magnification factor cannot be successfully applied to all tasks. To find out why, several tasks were studied using spatial scaling, a method which requires no pre-determined scaling factors (such as those predicted from cortical magnification) to magnify the stimulus at any eccentricity. Instead, thresholds are measured at the fovea and in the periphery using a series of stimuli, all of which are simply magnified versions of one another. Analysis of the data obtained in this way reveals the value of the parameter E2, the eccentricity at which foveal stimulus size must double in order to maintain performance equivalent to that at the fovea. The tasks investigated include hyperacuities (vernier acuity, bisection acuity, spatial interval discrimination, referenced displacement detection, and orientation discrimination), unreferenced instantaneous and gradual movement, flicker sensitivity, and face discrimination. In all cases tasks obeyed the principle of spatial scaling since performance in the periphery could be equated to that at the fovea by appropriate magnification. However, E2 values found for different spatial tasks varied over a 200-fold range. In spatial tasks (e.g. bisection acuity and spatial interval discrimination) E2 values were low, reaching about 0.075 deg, whereas in movement tasks the values could be as high as 16 deg. Using a method of spatial scaling it has been possible to equate foveal and peripheral perfonnance in many diverse visual tasks. The rate at which peripheral stimulus size had to be increased as a function of eccentricity was dependent upon the stimulus conditions and the task itself. Possible reasons for these findings are discussed.

Polynomial function intervals for floating-point software verification

The focus of our work is the verification of tight functional properties of numerical programs, such as showing that a floating-point implementation of Riemann integration computes a close approximation of the exact integral. Programmers and engineers writing such programs will benefit from verification tools that support an expressive specification language and that are highly automated. Our work provides a new method for verification of numerical software, supporting a substantially more expressive language for specifications than other publicly available automated tools. The additional expressivity in the specification language is provided by two constructs. First, the specification can feature inclusions between interval arithmetic expressions. Second, the integral operator from classical analysis can be used in the specifications, where the integration bounds can be arbitrary expressions over real variables. To support our claim of expressivity, we outline the verification of four example programs, including the integration example mentioned earlier. A key component of our method is an algorithm for proving numerical theorems. This algorithm is based on automatic polynomial approximation of non-linear real and real-interval functions defined by expressions. The PolyPaver tool is our implementation of the algorithm and its source code is publicly available. In this paper we report on experiments using PolyPaver that indicate that the additional expressivity does not come at a performance cost when comparing with other publicly available state-of-the-art provers. We also include a scalability study that explores the limits of PolyPaver in proving tight functional specifications of progressively larger randomly generated programs. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

Conditional volatility and firm size:an empirical analysis of UK equity portfolios

The techniques and insights from two distinct areas of financial economic modelling are combined to provide evidence of the influence of firm size on the volatility of stock portfolio returns. Portfolio returns are characterized by positive serial correlation induced by the varying levels of non-synchronous trading among the component stocks. This serial correlation is greatest for portfolios of small firms. The conditional volatility of stock returns has been shown to be well represented by the GARCH family of statistical processes. Using a GARCH model of the variance of capitalization-based portfolio returns, conditioned on the autocorrelation structure in the conditional mean, striking differences related to firm size are uncovered.

Interval timing in children:effects of auditory and visual pacing stimuli and relationships with reading and attention variables

Motor timing tasks have been employed in studies of neurodevelopmental disorders such as developmental dyslexia and ADHD, where they provide an index of temporal processing ability. Investigations of these disorders have used different stimulus parameters within the motor timing tasks which are likely to affect performance measures. Here we assessed the effect of auditory and visual pacing stimuli on synchronised motor timing performance and its relationship with cognitive and behavioural predictors that are commonly used in the diagnosis of these highly prevalent developmental disorders. Twenty- one children (mean age 9.6 years) completed a finger tapping task in two stimulus conditions, together with additional psychometric measures. As anticipated, synchronisation to the beat (ISI 329 ms) was less accurate in the visually paced condition. Decomposition of timing variance indicated that this effect resulted from differences in the way that visual and auditory paced tasks are processed by central timekeeping and associated peripheral implementation systems. The ability to utilise an efficient processing strategy on the visual task correlated with both reading and sustained attention skills. Dissociations between these patterns of relationship across task modality suggest that not all timing tasks are equivalent.

General and multiplicative non-parametric corporate performance models with interval ratio data

The increasing intensity of global competition has led organizations to utilize various types of performance measurement tools for improving the quality of their products and services. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for evaluating and measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. All the data in the conventional DEA with input and/or output ratios assumes the form of crisp numbers. However, the observed values of data in real-world problems are sometimes expressed as interval ratios. In this paper, we propose two new models: general and multiplicative non-parametric ratio models for DEA problems with interval data. The contributions of this paper are fourfold: (1) we consider input and output data expressed as interval ratios in DEA; (2) we address the gap in DEA literature for problems not suitable or difficult to model with crisp values; (3) we propose two new DEA models for evaluating the relative efficiencies of DMUs with interval ratios, and (4) we present a case study involving 20 banks with three interval ratios to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed models where the traditional indicators are mostly financial ratios. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

An overall profit Malmquist productivity index with fuzzy and interval data

Although crisp data are fundamentally indispensable for determining the profit Malmquist productivity index (MPI), the observed values in real-world problems are often imprecise or vague. These imprecise or vague data can be suitably characterized with fuzzy and interval methods. In this paper, we reformulate the conventional profit MPI problem as an imprecise data envelopment analysis (DEA) problem, and propose two novel methods for measuring the overall profit MPI when the inputs, outputs, and price vectors are fuzzy or vary in intervals. We develop a fuzzy version of the conventional MPI model by using a ranking method, and solve the model with a commercial off-the-shelf DEA software package. In addition, we define an interval for the overall profit MPI of each decision-making unit (DMU) and divide the DMUs into six groups according to the intervals obtained for their overall profit efficiency and MPIs. We also present two numerical examples to demonstrate the applicability of the two proposed models and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Derivation of marginal effects of determinants of technical inefficiency

In efficiency studies using the stochastic frontier approach, the main focus is to explain inefficiency in terms of some exogenous variables and computation of marginal effects of each of these determinants. Although inefficiency is estimated by its mean conditional on the composed error term (the Jondrow et al., 1982 estimator), the marginal effects are computed from the unconditional mean of inefficiency (Wang, 2002). In this paper we derive the marginal effects based on the Jondrow et al. estimator and use the bootstrap method to compute confidence intervals of the marginal effects.

Factors determining disease duration in Alzheimer's disease:a postmortem study of 103 cases using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression

Factors associated with duration of dementia in a consecutive series of 103 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases were studied using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression analysis (proportional hazard model). Mean disease duration was 7.1 years (range: 6 weeks-30 years, standard deviation = 5.18); 25% of cases died within four years, 50% within 6.9 years, and 75% within 10 years. Familial AD cases (FAD) had a longer duration than sporadic cases (SAD), especially cases linked to presenilin (PSEN) genes. No significant differences in duration were associated with age, sex, or apolipoprotein E (Apo E) genotype. Duration was reduced in cases with arterial hypertension. Cox regression analysis suggested longer duration was associated with an earlier disease onset and increased senile plaque (SP) and neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) pathology in the orbital gyrus (OrG), CA1 sector of the hippocampus, and nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM). The data suggest shorter disease duration in SAD and in cases with hypertensive comorbidity. In addition, degree of neuropathology did not influence survival, but spread of SP/NFT pathology into the frontal lobe, hippocampus, and basal forebrain was associated with longer disease duration. © 2014 R. A. Armstrong.

Conditional osmotic stress in yeast:a system to study transport through aquaglyceroporins and osmostress signaling

The accumulation and transport of solutes are hallmarks of osmoadaptation. In this study we have employed the inability of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae gpd1Δ gpd2Δ mutant both to produce glycerol and to adapt to high osmolarity to study solute transport through aquaglyceroporins and the control of osmostress-induced signaling. High levels of different polyols, including glycerol, inhibited growth of the gpd1Δ gpd2Δ mutant. This growth inhibition was suppressed by expression of the hyperactive allele Fps1-AΔ of the osmogated yeast aquaglyceroporin, Fps1. The degree of suppression correlated with the relative rate of transport of the different polyols tested. Transport studies in secretory vesicles confirmed that Fps1-Δ1 transports polyols at increased rates compared with wild type Fps1. Importantly, wild type Fps1 and Fps1-Δ1 showed similarly low permeability for water. The growth defect on polyols in the gpd1Δ gpd2Δ mutant was also suppressed by expression of a heterologous aquaglyceroporin, rat AQP9. We surmised that this suppression was due to polyol influx, causing the cells to passively adapt to the stress. Indeed, when aquaglyceroporin-expressing gpd1Δ gpd2Δ mutants were treated with glycerol, xylitol, or sorbitol, the osmosensing HOG pathway was activated, and the period of activation correlated with the apparent rate of polyol uptake. This observation supports the notion that deactivation of the HOG pathway is closely coupled to osmotic adaptation. Taken together, our "conditional" osmotic stress system facilitates studies on aquaglyceroporin function and reveals features of the osmosensing and signaling system. © 2005 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Age differences in associative and strategic processes in human conditional learning

Research indicates associative and strategic deficits mediate age related deficits in memory, whereas simple associative processes are independent of strategic processing and strategic processes mediate resistance to interference. The present study showed age-related deficits in a contingency learning task, although older participants' resistance to interference was not disproportionately affected. Recognition memory predicted discrimination, whereas general cognitive ability predicted resistance to interference, suggesting differentiation between associative and strategic processes in learning and memory, and age declines in associative processes. Older participants' generalisation of associative strength from existing to novel stimulus-response associations was consistent with elemental learning theories, whereas configural models predicted younger participants' responses. This is consistent with associative deficits and reliance on item-level representations in memory during later life. © 2011 Psychology Press Ltd.