Large-scale complex IT systems

Society depends on complex IT systems created by integrating and orchestrating independently managed systems. The incredible increase in scale and complexity in them over the past decade means new software-engineering techniques are needed to help us cope with their inherent complexity. The key characteristic of these systems is that they are assembled from other systems that are independently controlled and managed. While there is increasing awareness in the software engineering community of related issues, the most relevant background work comes from systems engineering. The interacting algos that led to the Flash Crash represent an example of a coalition of systems, serving the purposes of their owners and cooperating only because they have to. The owners of the individual systems were competing finance companies that were often mutually hostile. Each system jealously guarded its own information and could change without consulting any other system.

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

A systems methodology for analysing and simulating manufacturing systems

The Systems Engineering Group (SEG) at De Montfort University are developing the Boardman Soft Systems Methodology (BSSM) which allows complex human systems to be modelled, this work builds upon Checkland's Soft Systems Methodology (1981). The BSSM has been applied to the modelling of the systems engineering process as used in design and manufacturing companies. The BSSM is used to solicit information from a company and this data is then transformed into systemic diagrams (systemigrams). These systemigrams are posited to be accurate and concise representations of the system which has been modelled. This paper describes the collaboration between SEG and a manufacturing company (MC) in Leicester, England. The purpose of this collaboration was twofold. First, it was to create an objective view of the MC's processes, in the form of systemigrams. It was important to get this modelled by a source outside of the company, as it is difficult for people within a system being modelled to be unbiased. Secondly, it allowed a series of systemigrams to be produced which can then be subjected to simulation, for the purpose of aiding risk management decisions and to reduce the project cycle time

An investigation of thin amorphous carbon-based sputtered coatings for MEMS and micro-engineering applications

The work presented in this thesis describes an investigation into the production and properties of thin amorphous C films, with and without Cr doping, as a low wear / friction coating applicable to MEMS and other micro- and nano-engineering applications. Firstly, an assessment was made of the available testing techniques. Secondly, the optimised test methods were applied to a series of sputtered films of thickness 10 - 2000 nm in order to: (i) investigate the effect of thickness on the properties of coatingslcoating process (ii) investigate fundamental tribology at the nano-scale and (iii) provide a starting point for nanotribological coating optimisation at ultra low thickness. The use of XPS was investigated for the determination of Sp3/Sp2 carbon bonding. Under C 1s peak analysis, significant errors were identified and this was attributed to the absence of sufficient instrument resolution to guide the component peak structure (even with a high resolution instrument). A simple peak width analysis and correlation work with C KLL D value confirmed the errors. The use of XPS for Sp3/Sp2 was therefore limited to initial tentative estimations. Nanoindentation was shown to provide consistent hardness and reduced modulus results with depth (to < 7nm) when replicate data was suitably statistically processed. No significant pile-up or cracking of the films was identified under nanoindentation. Nanowear experimentation by multiple nanoscratching provided some useful information, however the conditions of test were very different to those expect for MEMS and micro- / nano-engineering systems. A novel 'sample oscillated nanoindentation' system was developed for testing nanowear under more relevant conditions. The films were produced in an industrial production coating line. In order to maximise the available information and to take account of uncontrolled process variation a statistical design of experiment procedure was used to investigate the effect of four key process control parameters. Cr doping was the most significant control parameter at all thicknesses tested and produced a softening effect and thus increased nanowear. Substrate bias voltage was also a significant parameter and produced hardening and a wear reducing effect at all thicknesses tested. The use of a Cr adhesion layer produced beneficial results at 150 nm thickness, but was ineffective at 50 nm. Argon flow to the coating chamber produced a complex effect. All effects reduced significantly with reducing film thickness. Classic fretting wear was produced at low amplitude under nanowear testing. Reciprocating sliding was produced at higher amplitude which generated three body abrasive wear and this was generally consistent with the Archard model. Specific wear rates were very low (typically 10-16 - 10-18 m3N-1m-1). Wear rates reduced exponentially with reduced film thickness and below (approx.) 20 nm, thickness was identified as the most important control of wear.

CONNECT challenges: towards emergent connectors for eternal networked systems

The CONNECT European project that started in February 2009 aims at dropping the interoperability barrier faced by today’s distributed systems. It does so by adopting a revolutionary approach to the seamless networking of digital systems, that is, synthesizing on the fly the connectors via which networked systems communicate.

Design and implementation of graphical user interfaces for complex simulations

The development of increasingly powerful computers, which has enabled the use of windowing software, has also opened the way for the computer study, via simulation, of very complex physical systems. In this study, the main issues related to the implementation of interactive simulations of complex systems are identified and discussed. Most existing simulators are closed in the sense that there is no access to the source code and, even if it were available, adaptation to interaction with other systems would require extensive code re-writing. This work aims to increase the flexibility of such software by developing a set of object-oriented simulation classes, which can be extended, by subclassing, at any level, i.e., at the problem domain, presentation or interaction levels. A strategy, which involves the use of an object-oriented framework, concurrent execution of several simulation modules, use of a networked windowing system and the re-use of existing software written in procedural languages, is proposed. A prototype tool which combines these techniques has been implemented and is presented. It allows the on-line definition of the configuration of the physical system and generates the appropriate graphical user interface. Simulation routines have been developed for the chemical recovery cycle of a paper pulp mill. The application, by creation of new classes, of the prototype to the interactive simulation of this physical system is described. Besides providing visual feedback, the resulting graphical user interface greatly simplifies the interaction with this set of simulation modules. This study shows that considerable benefits can be obtained by application of computer science concepts to the engineering domain, by helping domain experts to tailor interactive tools to suit their needs.

Self-explanation in adaptive systems

The behaviour of self adaptive systems can be emergent. The difficulty in predicting the system's behaviour means that there is scope for the system to surprise its customers and its developers. Because its behaviour is emergent, a self-adaptive system needs to garner confidence in its customers and it needs to resolve any surprise on the part of the developer during testing and mainteinance. We believe that these two functions can only be achieved if a self-adaptive system is also capable of self-explanation. We argue a self-adaptive system's behaviour needs to be explained in terms of satisfaction of its requirements. Since self-adaptive system requirements may themselves be emergent, a means needs to be found to explain the current behaviour of the system and the reasons that brought that behaviour about. We propose the use of goal-based models during runtime to offer self-explanation of how a system is meeting its requirements, and why the means of meeting these were chosen. We discuss the results of early experiments in self-explanation, and set out future work. © 2012 C.E.S.A.M.E.S.

Run-time connector synthesis for autonomic systems of systems

A key objective of autonomic computing is to reduce the cost and expertise required for the management of complex IT systems. As a growing number of these systems are implemented as hierarchies or federations of lower-level systems, techniques that support the development of autonomic systems of systems are required. This article introduces one such technique, which involves the run-time synthesis of autonomic system connectors. These connectors are specified by means of a new type of autonomic computing policy termed a resource definition policy, and enable the dynamic realisation of collections of collaborating autonomic systems, as envisaged by the original vision of autonomic computing. We propose a framework for the formal specification of autonomic computing policies, and use it to define the new policy type and to describe its application to the development of autonomic system of systems. To validate the approach, we present a sample data-centre application that was built using connectors synthesised from resource-definition policies.

On-off and multistate intermittencies in cascaded random distributed feedback fibre laser

A range of physical and engineering systems exhibit an irregular complex dynamics featuring alternation of quiet and burst time intervals called the intermittency. The intermittent dynamics most popular in laser science is the on-off intermittency [1]. The on-off intermittency can be understood as a conversion of the noise in a system close to an instability threshold into effective time-dependent fluctuations which result in the alternation of stable and unstable periods. The on-off intermittency has been recently demonstrated in semiconductor, Erbium doped and Raman lasers [2-5]. Recently demonstrated random distributed feedback (random DFB) fiber laser has an irregular dynamics near the generation threshold [6,7]. Here we show the intermittency in the cascaded random DFB fiber laser. We study intensity fluctuations in a random DFB fiber laser based on nitrogen doped fiber. The laser generates first and second Stokes components 1120 nm and 1180 nm respectively under an appropriate pumping. We study the intermittency in the radiation of the second Stokes wave. The typical time trace near the generation threshold of the second Stokes wave (Pth) is shown at Fig. 1a. From the number of long enough time-traces we calculate statistical distribution between major spikes in time dynamics, Fig. 1b. To eliminate contribution of high frequency components of spikes we use a low pass filter along with the reference value of the output power. Experimental data is fitted by power law, ~(P-Pth)y, where is a mean time between pikes. There are two different intermittency regimes. Just above Pth, the mean time is approximated by the -3/2 power law. The -3/2 power law is typical to the on-off intermittency with hopping between two states (first and second Stokes waves in our case) [7]. At higher power, the mean time is approximated by -4 power law, that indicates a change in intermittency type to multistate. Multistable dynamics is observed in erbium-doped fiber lasers [8]. The origin of multiples states in our system could be probably connected with polarization hopping or other reasons and should be further investigated. We have presented a first experimental statistical characterisation of the on-off and multistate intermittencies that occur in the generation of the second Stokes wave in nitrogen doped random DFB fiber laser. References [1] H. Fujisaka and T. Yamada, “A New Intermittency in Coupled Dynamical Systems,” Prog. Theor. Phys. 74, 918 (1985). [2] S. Osborne, A. Amann, D. Bitauld, and S. O’Brien, “On-off intermittency in an optically injected semiconductor laser,” Phys. Rev. E 85, 056204 (2012). [3] S. Sergeyev, K. O'Mahoney, S. Popov, and A. T. Friberg, “Coherence and anticoherence resonance in high-concentration erbium-doped fiber laser,” Opt. Lett. 35, 3736 (2010). [4] A.E. El-Taher, S.V. Sergeyev, E.G. Turitsyna, P. Harper, and S. K. Turitsyn, “Intermittent Self-Pulsing in a Fiber Raman Laser”, In proc. Conf. Nonlin. Photon., paper ID 1367139, Colorado Springs, USA, 2012 [5] S.K. Turitsyn, S.A. Babin, A.E. El-Taher, P. Harper, D.V. Churkin, S.I. Kablukov, J.D. Ania-Castañón, V. Karalekas, and E.V. Podivilov, “Random distributed feedback fibre laser”, Nat. Photon..4, 231 (2010). [6] I. D. Vatnik, D. V. Churkin, S. A. Babin, and S. K. Turitsyn, "Cascaded random distributed feedback Raman fiber laser operating at 1.2 μm," Opt. Express 19, 18486 (2011). [7] W. Feller, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, Vol. 1, 3rd ed. (Wiley, New-York, 1968). [8] G. Huerta-Cuellar, A.N. Pisarchik, and Y.O. Barmenkov, “Experimental characterization of hopping dynamics in a multistable fiber laser,” Phys. Rev. E 78, 035202(R) (2008).