Dimensionality reduction in complex models

As a part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, research at Aston University will develop methods for dimensionality reduction of the input and/or output spaces of models, as seen within the emulator framework. Towards this end this report describes a framework for generating toy datasets, whose underlying structure is understood, to facilitate early investigations of dimensionality reduction methods and to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithms employed, both in terms of how effective they are for given types of models / situations, and also their speed in applications and how this scales with various factors. The framework, which allows the evaluation of both screening and projection approaches to dimensionality reduction, is described. We also describe the screening and projection methods currently under consideration and present some preliminary results. The aim of this draft of the report is to solicit feedback from the project team on the dataset generation framework, the methods we propose to use, and suggestions for extensions that should be considered.

Embedding e-portfolios for effective lifelong learning:a case study

Lifelong learning is a ‘keystone’ of educational policies (Faure, 1972) where the emphasis on learning shifts from teacher to learner. Higher Education (HE) institutions should be committed to developing lifelong learning, that is promoting learning that is flexible, diverse and relevant at different times, and in different places, and is pursued throughout life. Therefore the HE sector needs to develop effective strategies to encourage engagement in meaningful learning for diverse student populations. The use of e-portfolios, as a ‘purposeful aggregation of digital items’ (Sutherland & Powell, 2007), can meet the needs of the student community by encouraging reflection, the recording of experiences and achievements, and personal development planning (PDP). The use of e-portfolios also promotes inclusivity in learning as it provides students with the opportunity to articulate their aspirations and take the first steps along the pathway of lifelong learning. However, ensuring the uptake of opportunities within their learning is more complex than the students simply having access to the software. Therefore it is argued here that crucial to the effective uptake and engagement of the e-portfolio is embedding it purposefully within the curriculum. In order to investigate effective implementation of e-portfolios an explanatory case study on their use was carried out, initially focusing on 3 groups of students engaged in work-based learning and professional practice. The 3 groups had e-Portfolios embedded and assessed at different levels. Group 1 did not have the e-Portfolio embedded into their curriculum nor was the e-Portfolio assessed. Group 2 had the e-Portfolio embedded into the curriculum and formatively assessed. Group 3 also had the e-Portfolio embedded into the curriculum and were summatively assessed. Results suggest that the use of e-Portfolios needs to be integral to curriculum design in modules rather than used as an additional tool. In addition to this more user engagement was found in group 2 where the e-Portfolio was formatively assessed only. The implications of this case study are further discussed in terms of curriculum development.

Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

Setting parameters in MRP for the effective management of bought-out inventory in a JIT assembly environment

In recent years, UK industry has seen an explosive growth in the number of `Computer Aided Production Management' (CAPM) system installations. Of the many CAPM systems, materials requirement planning/manufacturing resource planning (MRP/MRPII) is the most widely implemented. Despite the huge investments in MRP systems, over 80 percent are said to have failed within 3 to 5 years of installation. Many people now assume that Just-In-Time (JIT) is the best manufacturing technique. However, those who have implemented JIT have found that it also has many problems. The author argues that the success of a manufacturing company will not be due to a system which complies with a single technique; but due to the integration of many techniques and the ability to make them complement each other in a specific manufacturing environment. This dissertation examines the potential for integrating MRP with JIT and Two-Bin systems to reduce operational costs involved in managing bought-out inventory. Within this framework it shows that controlling MRP is essential to facilitate the integrating process. The behaviour of MRP systems is dependent on the complex interactions between the numerous control parameters used. Methodologies/models are developed to set these parameters. The models are based on the Pareto principle. The idea is to use business targets to set a coherent set of parameters, which not only enables those business targets to be realised, but also facilitates JIT implementation. It illustrates this approach in the context of an actual manufacturing plant - IBM Havant. (IBM Havant is a high volume electronics assembly plant with the majority of the materials bought-out). The parameter setting models are applicable to control bought-out items in a wide range of industries and are not dependent on specific MRP software. The models have produced successful results in several companies and are now being developed as commercial products.

Build-up and resetting of auditory stream segregation in quiet and in complex-tone backgrounds

Thirteen experiments investigated the dynamics of stream segregation. Experiments 1-6b used a similar method, where a same-frequency induction sequence (usually 10 repetitions of an identical pure tone) promoted segregation in a subsequent, briefer test sequence (of alternating low- and high-frequency tones). Experiments 1-2 measured streaming using a direct report of perception and a temporal-discrimination task, respectively. Creating a single deviant by altering the final inducer (e.g. in level or replacement with silence) reduced segregation, often substantially. As the prior inducers remained unaltered, it is proposed that the single change actively reset build-up. The extent of resetting varied gradually with the size of a frequency change, once noticeable (experiments 3a-3b). By manipulating the serial position of a change, experiments 4a-4b demonstrated that resetting only occurred when the final inducer was replaced with silence, as build-up is very rapid during a same-frequency induction sequence. Therefore, the observed resetting cannot be explained by fewer inducers being presented. Experiment 5 showed that resetting caused by a single deviant did not increase when prior inducers were made unpredictable in frequency (four-semitone range). Experiments 6a-6b demonstrated that actual and perceived continuity have a similar effect on subsequent streaming judgements promoting either integration or segregation, depending on listening context. Experiment 7 found that same-frequency inducers were considerably more effective at promoting segregation than an alternating-frequency inducer, and that a trend for deviant-tone resetting was only apparent for the same-frequency case. Using temporal-order judgments, experiments 8-9 demonstrated the stream segregation of pure-tone-like percepts, evoked by sudden changes in amplitude or interaural time difference for individual components of a complex tone, Active resetting was observed when a deviant was inserted into a sequence of these percepts (Experiment 10). Overall, these experiments offer new insight into the segregation-promotIng effect of induction sequences, and the factors which can reset this effect.

Semantic search components:a blueprint for effective query language interfaces

Formulating complex queries is hard, especially when users cannot understand all the data structures of multiple complex knowledge bases. We see a gap between simplistic but user friendly tools and formal query languages. Building on an example comparison search, we propose an approach in which reusable search components take an intermediary role between the user interface and formal query languages.

Successful development and testing of a Method for Aggregating The Reporting of Interventions in Complex Studies (MATRICS)

Objectives: To develop a tool for the accurate reporting and aggregation of findings from each of the multiple methods used in a complex evaluation in an unbiased way. Study Design and Setting: We developed a Method for Aggregating The Reporting of Interventions in Complex Studies (MATRICS) within a gastroenterology study [Evaluating New Innovations in (the delivery and organisation of) Gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy services by the NHS Modernisation Agency (ENIGMA)]. We subsequently tested it on a different gastroenterology trial [Multi-Institutional Nurse Endoscopy Trial (MINuET)]. We created three layers to define the effects, methods, and findings from ENIGMA. We assigned numbers to each effect in layer 1 and letters to each method in layer 2. We used an alphanumeric code based on layers 1 and 2 to every finding in layer 3 to link the aims, methods, and findings. We illustrated analogous findings by assigning more than one alphanumeric code to a finding. We also showed that more than one effect or method could report the same finding. We presented contradictory findings by listing them in adjacent rows of the MATRICS. Results: MATRICS was useful for the effective synthesis and presentation of findings of the multiple methods from ENIGMA. We subsequently successfully tested it by applying it to the MINuET trial. Conclusion: MATRICS is effective for synthesizing the findings of complex, multiple-method studies.

A knowledge based system of principled negotiation for complex business contract

Automated negotiation systems can do better than human being in many aspects, and thus are applied into many domains ranging from business to computer science. However, little work about automating negotiation of complex business contract has been done so far although it is a kind of the most important negotiation in business. In order to address this issue, in this paper we developed an automated system for this kind of negotiation. This system is based on the principled negotiation theory, which is the most effective method of negotiation in the domain of business. The system is developed as a knowledge-based one because a negotiating agent in business has to be economically intelligent and capable of making effective decisions based on business experiences and knowledge. Finally, the validity of the developed system is shown in a real negotiation scenario where on behalf of human users, the system successfully performed a negotiation of a complex business contract between a wholesaler and a retailer. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Effective decision making and problem solving in projects

Processing information and forming opinions pose special challenges when attempting to effectively manage the new or complex tasks that typically arise in projects. Based on research in organizational and social psychology, we introduce mechanisms and strategies for collective information processing which are important for forming opinions and handling information in projects.

Writing online:a guide to effective digital communication at work

Online writing plays a complex and increasingly prominent role in the life of organizations. From newsletters to press releases, social media marketing and advertising, to virtual presentations and interactions via e-mail and instant messaging, digital writing intertwines and affects the day-to-day running of the company - yet we rarely pay enough attention to it. Typing on the screen can become particularly problematic because digital text-based communication increases the opportunities for misunderstanding: it lacks the direct audio-visual contact and the norms and conventions that would normally help people to understand each other. Providing a clear, convincing and approachable discussion, this book addresses arenas of online writing: virtual teamwork, instant messaging, emails, corporate communication channels, and social media. Instead of offering do and don’t lists, however, it teaches the reader to develop a practice that is observant, reflective, and grounded in the understanding of the basic principles of language and communication. Through real-life examples and case studies, it helps the reader to notice previously unnoticed small details, question previously unchallenged assumptions and practices, and become a competent digital communicator in a wide range of professional contexts.