36 resultados para Cointegration analysis with structural breaks
em Aston University Research Archive
Resumo:
Exploratory analysis of data seeks to find common patterns to gain insights into the structure and distribution of the data. In geochemistry it is a valuable means to gain insights into the complicated processes making up a petroleum system. Typically linear visualisation methods like principal components analysis, linked plots, or brushing are used. These methods can not directly be employed when dealing with missing data and they struggle to capture global non-linear structures in the data, however they can do so locally. This thesis discusses a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. The generative topographic mapping (GTM) enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, which is able to incorporate more structure than a two dimensional principal components plot. The model can deal with uncertainty, missing data and allows for the exploration of the non-linear structure in the data. In this thesis a novel approach to initialise the GTM with arbitrary projections is developed. This makes it possible to combine GTM with algorithms like Isomap and fit complex non-linear structure like the Swiss-roll. Another novel extension is the incorporation of prior knowledge about the structure of the covariance matrix. This extension greatly enhances the modelling capabilities of the algorithm resulting in better fit to the data and better imputation capabilities for missing data. Additionally an extensive benchmark study of the missing data imputation capabilities of GTM is performed. Further a novel approach, based on missing data, will be introduced to benchmark the fit of probabilistic visualisation algorithms on unlabelled data. Finally the work is complemented by evaluating the algorithms on real-life datasets from geochemical projects.
Resumo:
Volume reduction and functional impairment in areas of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have been found in borderline personality disorder (BPD), particularly in patients with a history of childhood abuse. These abnormalities may contribute to the expression of emotion dysregulation and aggressiveness. In this study we investigated whether the volume of the PFC is reduced in BPD patients and whether a history of childhood abuse would be associated with greater PFC structural changes. Structural MRI data were obtained from 18 BPD patients and 19 healthy individuals matched for age, sex, handedness, and education and were analyzed using voxel based morphometry. The Child Abuse Scale was used to elicit a past history of abuse; aggression was evaluated using the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). The volume of the right ventrolateral PFC (VLPFC) was significantly reduced in BPD subjects with a history of childhood abuse compared to those without this risk factor. Additionally, right VLPFC gray matter volume significantly correlated with the BDHI total score and with BDHI irritability and negativism subscale scores in patients with a history of childhood abuse. Our results suggest that a history of childhood abuse may lead to increased aggression mediated by an impairment of the right VLPFC. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Resumo:
This paper explains some drawbacks on previous approaches for detecting influential observations in deterministic nonparametric data envelopment analysis models as developed by Yang et al. (Annals of Operations Research 173:89-103, 2010). For example efficiency scores and relative entropies obtained in this model are unimportant to outlier detection and the empirical distribution of all estimated relative entropies is not a Monte-Carlo approximation. In this paper we developed a new method to detect whether a specific DMU is truly influential and a statistical test has been applied to determine the significance level. An application for measuring efficiency of hospitals is used to show the superiority of this method that leads to significant advancements in outlier detection. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Resumo:
This PhD thesis analyses networks of knowledge flows, focusing on the role of indirect ties in the knowledge transfer, knowledge accumulation and knowledge creation process. It extends and improves existing methods for mapping networks of knowledge flows in two different applications and contributes to two stream of research. To support the underlying idea of this thesis, which is finding an alternative method to rank indirect network ties to shed a new light on the dynamics of knowledge transfer, we apply Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) to two different network contexts. Knowledge flows in patent citation networks and a company supply chain network are analysed using Social Network Analysis (SNA) and the OWA operator. The OWA is used here for the first time (i) to rank indirect citations in patent networks, providing new insight into their role in transferring knowledge among network nodes; and to analyse a long chain of patent generations along 13 years; (ii) to rank indirect relations in a company supply chain network, to shed light on the role of indirectly connected individuals involved in the knowledge transfer and creation processes and to contribute to the literature on knowledge management in a supply chain. In doing so, indirect ties are measured and their role as means of knowledge transfer is shown. Thus, this thesis represents a first attempt to bridge the OWA and SNA fields and to show that the two methods can be used together to enrich the understanding of the role of indirectly connected nodes in a network. More specifically, the OWA scores enrich our understanding of knowledge evolution over time within complex networks. Future research can show the usefulness of OWA operator in different complex networks, such as the on-line social networks that consists of thousand of nodes.
Resumo:
This paper seeks to advance the theory and practice of the dynamics of complex networks in relation to direct and indirect citations. It applies social network analysis (SNA) and the ordered weighted averaging operator (OWA) to study a patent citations network. So far the SNA studies investigating long chains of patents citations have rarely been undertaken and the importance of a node in a network has been associated mostly with its number of direct ties. In this research OWA is used to analyse complex networks, assess the role of indirect ties, and provide guidance to reduce complexity for decision makers and analysts. An empirical example of a set of European patents published in 2000 in the renewable energy industry is provided to show the usefulness of the proposed approach for the preference ranking of patent citations.
Resumo:
This paper examines whether the observed long memory behavior of log-range series is to some extent spurious and whether it can be explained by the presence of structural breaks. Utilizing stock market data we show that the characterization of log-range series as long memory processes can be a strong assumption. Moreover, we find that all examined series experience a large number of significant breaks. Once the breaks are accounted for, the volatility persistence is eliminated. Overall, the findings suggest that volatility can be adequately represented, at least in-sample, through a multiple breaks process and a short run component.
Resumo:
A mild protocol that allows the template removal of soft un-aged silica nanoparticles was investigated. After oxidizing the organic template by Fenton chemistry, a good structural preservation is only achieved when the material is equilibrated and dried in a low-surface tension solvent. This avoids excessive capillary stress induced by the high surface tension of water, a major component in the Fenton reaction medium. The Fenton reaction should be carried out under mild conditions as well; otherwise the sample deteriorates by extensive hydrolysis, and capillary stress, and the structural ordering diminishes severely. We propose employing 10 ppm Fe concentration at 70 °C for 24 h for the cetyltrimethylammonium bromide template. The proposed protocol involves 2 steps resulting in an overall significantly higher pore volume attributed to the wider pores and limited particle agglomeration, while the calcined counterpart evidences aggregation and loss of the hexagonal ordering. n-BuOH exchange is unnecessary when the mesophase is stabilized by ageing, as the structure resists the water capillary stress. © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2013.
Resumo:
Tensor analysis plays an important role in modern image and vision computing problems. Most of the existing tensor analysis approaches are based on the Frobenius norm, which makes them sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose L1-norm-based tensor analysis (TPCA-L1), which is robust to outliers. Experimental results upon face and other datasets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach. © 2006 IEEE.
Resumo:
Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.
Resumo:
This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.
Resumo:
The purpose of this thesis is to conduct empirical research in corporate Thailand in order to (1) validate the Spirit at Work Scale (2) investigate the relationships between individual spirit at work and three employee work attitudinal variables (job satisfaction, organisational identification and psychological well-being) and three organisational outcomes (in-role performance, organisational citizenship behaviours (OCB), and turnover intentions) (3) further examine causal relations among these organisational behaviour variables with a longitudinal design (4) examine three employee work attitudes as mediator variables between individual spirit at work and three organisational outcomes and (5) explore the potential antecedents of organisational conditions that foster employee experienced individual spirit at work. The two pilot studies with 155 UK and 175, 715 Thai samples were conducted for validation testing of the main measure used in this study: Spirit at Work Scale (Kinjerski & Skrypnek, 2006a). The results of the two studies including discriminant validity analyses strongly provided supportive evidence that Spirit at Work Scale (SAWS) is a sound psychometric measure and also a distinct construct from the three work attitude constructs. The final model of SAWS contains a total of twelve items; a three factor structure (meaning in work, sense of community, and spiritual connection) in which the sub-factors loaded on higher order factors and also had very acceptable reliability. In line with these results it was decided to use the second-order of SAWS model for Thai samples in the main study and subsequent analysis. The 715 completed questionnaires were received from the first wave of data collection during July - August 2008 and the second wave was conducted again within the same organisations and 501 completed questionnaires were received during March - April 2009. Data were obtained through 49 organisations which were from three types of organisations within Thailand: public organisations, for-profit organisations, and notfor-profit organisations. Confirmatory factor analysis of all measures used in the study and hypothesised model were tested with structural equation modelling techniques. The results were greatly supportive for the direct structural model and partially supportive for the fully mediated model. Moreover, there were different findings across self report and supervisor rating on performance and OCB models. Additionally, the antecedent conditions that fostered employees experienced individual spirit at work and the implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.