Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

Spectral characteristics and thermal evolution of long-period gratings in photonic crystal fibers fabricated with a near-IR radiation femtosecond laser using point-by-point inscription

The spectral properties of long-period gratings (LPGs) fabricated in photonic crystal fibers using femtosecond laser pulses by the point-by-point technique, without oil-immersion of the fiber, are investigated in detail. Postfabrication spectral monitoring at room temperature showed significant long-term instability of the gratings and stable spectra only after 600 h. The stabilized spectral properties of the gratings improved with increasing annealing temperature. The observed changes in resonant wavelength, optical strength, and grating birefringence were correlated to the laser inscription energy and were further used to study the mechanism of femtosecond inscription. Furthermore, the femtosecond-laser inscribed LPGs were compared to electric-arc fabricated LPGs. Comparison of experimental results with theoretical models of LPGs and laser propagation during inscription indicate that the major processes responsible for the index change are permanent compaction and thermally induced strain, the latter can be significantly changed through annealing. © 2011 Optical Society of America.