From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Two Volumes consisting of a collection of several publications

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Analysis and interpretation of serial position data

The representation of serial position in sequences is an important topic in a variety of cognitive areas including the domains of language, memory, and motor control. In the neuropsychological literature, serial position data have often been normalized across different lengths, and an improved procedure for this has recently been reported by Machtynger and Shallice (2009). Effects of length and a U-shaped normalized serial position curve have been criteria for identifying working memory deficits. We present simulations and analyses to illustrate some of the issues that arise when relating serial position data to specific theories. We show that critical distinctions are often difficult to make based on normalized data. We suggest that curves for different lengths are best presented in their raw form and that binomial regression can be used to answer specific questions about the effects of length, position, and linear or nonlinear shape that are critical to making theoretical distinctions. © 2010 Psychology Press.

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Reduced attentional capacity, but normal processing speed and shifting of attention in developmental dyslexia: evidence from a serial task

We report the performance of a group of adult dyslexics and matched controls in an array-matching task where two strings of either consonants or symbols are presented side by side and have to be judged to be the same or different. The arrays may differ either in the order or identity of two adjacent characters. This task does not require naming – which has been argued to be the cause of dyslexics’ difficulty in processing visual arrays – but, instead, has a strong serial component as demonstrated by the fact that, in both groups, Reaction times (RTs) increase monotonically with position of a mismatch. The dyslexics are clearly impaired in all conditions and performance in the identity conditions predicts performance across orthographic tasks even after age, performance IQ and phonology are partialled out. Moreover, the shapes of serial position curves are revealing of the underlying impairment. In the dyslexics, RTs increase with position at the same rate as in the controls (lines are parallel) ruling out reduced processing speed or difficulties in shifting attention. Instead, error rates show a catastrophic increase for positions which are either searched later or more subject to interference. These results are consistent with a reduction in the attentional capacity needed in a serial task to bind together identity and positional information. This capacity is best seen as a reduction in the number of spotlights into which attention can be split to process information at different locations rather than as a more generic reduction of resources which would also affect processing the details of single objects.

Applying quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of pharmacotherapy of psoriasis

Healthcare providers and policy makers are faced with an ever-increasing number of medical publications. Searching for relevant information and keeping up to date with new research findings remains a constant challenge. It has been widely acknowledged that narrative reviews of the literature are susceptible to several types of bias and a systematic approach may protect against these biases. The aim of this thesis was to apply quantitative methods in the assessment of outcomes of topical therapies for psoriasis. In particular, to systematically examine the comparative efficacy, tolerability and cost-effectiveness of topical calcipotriol in the treatment of mild-to-moderate psoriasis. Over the years, a wide range of techniques have been used to evaluate the severity of psoriasis and the outcomes from treatment. This lack of standardisation complicates the direct comparison of results and ultimately the pooling of outcomes from different clinical trials. There is a clear requirement for more comprehensive tools for measuring drug efficacy and disease severity in psoriasis. Ideally, the outcome measures need to be simple, relevant, practical, and widely applicable, and the instruments should be reliable, valid and responsive. The results of the meta-analysis reported herein show that calcipotriol is an effective antipsoriatic agent. In the short-tenn, the pooled data found calcipotriol to be more effective than calcitriol, tacalcitol, coal tar and short-contact dithranol. Only potent corticosteroids appeared to have comparable efficacy, with less short-term side-effects. Potent corticosteroids also added to the antipsoriatic effect of calcipotriol, and appeared to suppress the occurrence of calcipotriol-induced irritation. There was insufficient evidence to support any large effects in favour of improvements in efficacy when calcipotriol is used in combination with systemic therapies in patients with severe psoriasis. However, there was a total absence of long-term morbidity data on the effectiveness of any of the interventions studied. Decision analysis showed that, from the perspective of the NHS as payer, the relatively small differences in efficacy between calcipotriol and short-contact dithranol lead to large differences in the direct cost of treating patients with mildto-moderate plaque psoriasis. Further research is needed to examine the clinical and economic issues affecting patients under treatment for psoriasis in the UK. In particular, the maintenance value and cost/benefit ratio for the various treatment strategies, and the assessment of patient's preferences has not yet been adequately addressed for this chronic recurring disease.

Theoretical perspectives in operations management:an analysis of the literature

Purpose - It is important to advance operations management (OM) knowledge while being mindful of the theoretical developments of the discipline. The purpose of this paper is to explore which theoretical perspectives have dominated the OM field. This analysis allows the authors to identify theory trends and gaps in the literature and to identify fruitful areas for future research. A reflection on theory is also practical, given that it guides research toward important questions and enlightens OM practitioners. Design/methodology/approach - The authors provide an analysis of OM theory developments in the last 30 years. The study encompasses three decades of OM publications across three OM journals and contains an analysis of over 3,000 articles so as to identify which theories, over time, have been adopted by authors in order to understand OM topics. Findings - The authors find that the majority of studies are atheoretical, empirical, and focussed upon theory testing rather than on theory development. Some theories, such as the resource-based view and contingency theory, have an enduring relevance within OM. The authors also identify theories from psychology, economics, sociology, and organizational behavior that may, in the future, have salience to explain burgeoning OM research areas such as servitization and sustainability. Research limitations/implications - The study makes a novel contribution by exploring which main theories have been adopted or developed in OM, doing so by systematically analyzing articles from the three main journals in the field (the Journal of Operations Management, Production and Operations Management, and the International Journal of Operations and Production Management), which encompass three decades of OM publications. In order to focus the study, the authors may have missed important OM articles in other journals. Practical implications - A reflection on theories is important because theories inform how a researcher or practicing manager interprets and solves OM problems. This study allows the authors to reflect on the collective OM journey to date, to spot trends and gaps in the literature, and to identify fruitful areas for future research. Originality/value - As far as the authors are aware, there has not been an assessment of the main theoretical perspectives in OM. The research also identifies which topics are published in OM journals, and which theories are adopted to investigate them. The authors also reflect on whether the most cited papers and those winning best paper awards are theoretical. This gives the authors a richer understanding of the current state of OM research.

Opening returns, noise and overreaction

In this article a partial-adjustment model, which shows how equity prices fail to adjust instantaneously to new information, is estimated using a Kalman filter. For the components of the Dow Jones Industrial 30 index I aim to identify whether overreaction or noise is the cause of serial correlation and high volatility associated with opening returns. I find that the tendency for overreaction in opening prices is much stronger than for closing prices; therefore, overreaction rather than noise may account for differences in the return behavior of opening and closing returns.

Extracting interactions between proteins from the literature

During the last decade, biomedicine has witnessed a tremendous development. Large amounts of experimental and computational biomedical data have been generated along with new discoveries, which are accompanied by an exponential increase in the number of biomedical publications describing these discoveries. In the meantime, there has been a great interest with scientific communities in text mining tools to find knowledge such as protein-protein interactions, which is most relevant and useful for specific analysis tasks. This paper provides a outline of the various information extraction methods in biomedical domain, especially for discovery of protein-protein interactions. It surveys methodologies involved in plain texts analyzing and processing, categorizes current work in biomedical information extraction, and provides examples of these methods. Challenges in the field are also presented and possible solutions are discussed.

Impact in contact lenses and the anterior eye:challenges prevailing in 2015

As we settle into a new year, this second issue of Contact Lens and Anterior Eye allows us to reflect on how new research in this field impacts our understanding, but more importantly, how we use this evidence basis to enhance our day to day practice, to educate the next generation of students and to construct the research studies to deepen our knowledge still further. The end of 2014 saw the publication of the UK governments Research Exercise Framework (REF) which ranks Universities in terms of their outputs (which includes their paper, publications and research income), environment (infrastructure and staff support) and for the first time impact (defined as “any effect on, change or benefit to the economy, society, culture, public policy or services, health, the environment or quality of life, beyond academia” [8]). The REF is a process of expert review, carried out in 36 subject-based units of assessment, of which our field is typically submitted to the Allied Health, Dentistry, Nursing and Pharmacy panel. Universities that offer Optometry did very well with Cardiff, Manchester and Aston in the top 10% out of the 94 Universities that submitted to this panel (Grade point Average ranked order). While the format of the new exercise (probably in 2010) to allocate the more than £2 billion of UK government research funds is yet to be determined, it is already rumoured that impact will contribute an even larger proportion to the weighting. Hence it is even more important to reflect on the impact of our research. In this issue, Elisseef and colleagues [5] examine the intriguing potential of modifying a lens surface to allow it to bind to known wetting agents (in this case hyaluronic acid) to enhance water retention. Such a technique has the capacity to reduced friction between the lens surface and the eyelids/ocular surface, presumably leading to higher comfort and less reason for patients to discontinue with lens wear. Several papers in this issue report on the validity of new high precision, fast scanning imaging and quantification equipment, utilising techniques such as Scheimpflug, partial coherence interferometry, aberrometry and video allowing detailed assessment of anterior chamber biometry, corneal topography, corneal biomechanics, peripheral refraction, ocular aberrations and lens fit. The challenge is how to use this advanced instrumentation which is becoming increasingly available to create real impact. Many challenges in contact lenses and the anterior eye still prevail in 2015 such as: -While contact lens and refractive surgery complications are relatively rare, they are still too often devastating to the individual and their quality of life (such as the impact and prognosis of patients with Acanthmoeba Keratitis reported by Jhanji and colleagues in this issue [7]). How can we detect those patients who are going to be affected and what modifications do we need to make to contact lenses and patient management prevent this occurring? -Drop out from contact lenses still occurs at a rapid rate and symptoms of dry eye seem to be the leading cause driving this discontinuation of wear [1] and [2]. What design, coating, material and lubricant release mechanism will make a step change in end of day comfort in particular? -Presbyopia is a major challenge to hassle free quality vision and is one of the first signs of ageing noticed by many people. As an emmetrope approaching presbyopia, I have a vested interest in new medical devices that will give me high quality vision at all distances when my arms won’t stretch any further. Perhaps a new definition of presbyopia could be when you start to orientate your smartphone in the landscape direction to gain the small increase in print size needed to read! Effective accommodating intraocular lenses that truly mimic the pre-presbyopic crystalline lenses are still a way off [3] and hence simultaneous images achieved through contact lenses, intraocular lenses or refractive surgery still have a secure future. However, splitting light reaching the retina and requiring the brain to supress blurred images will always be a compromise on contrast sensitivity and is liable to cause dysphotopsia; so how will new designs account for differences in a patient's task demands and own optical aberrations to allow focused patient selection, optimising satisfaction? -Drug delivery from contact lenses offers much in terms of compliance and quality of life for patients with chronic ocular conditions such as glaucoma, dry eye and perhaps in the future, dry age-related macular degeneration; but scientific proof-of-concept publications (see EIShaer et al. [6]) have not yet led to commercial products. Part of this is presumably the regulatory complexity of combining a medical device (the contact lens) and a pharmaceutical agent. Will 2015 be the year when this innovation finally becomes a reality for patients, bringing them an enhanced quality of life through their eye care practitioners and allowing researchers to further validate the use of pharmaceutical contact lenses and propose enhancements as the technology matures? -Last, but no means least is the field of myopia control, the topic of the first day of the BCLA's Conference in Liverpool, June 6–9th 2015. The epidemic of myopia is a blight, particularly in Asia, with significant concerns over sight threatening pathology resulting from the elongated eye. This is a field where real impact is already being realised through new soft contact lens optics, orthokeratology and low dose pharmaceuticals [4], but we still need to be able to better predict which technique will work best for an individual and to develop new techniques to retard myopia progression in those who don’t respond to current treatments, without increasing their risk of complications or the treatment impacting their quality of life So what will your New Year's resolution be to make 2015 a year of real impact, whether by advancing science or applying the findings published in journals such as Contact Lens and Anterior Eye to make a real difference to your patients’ lives?