Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Local shell-side coefficients in shell and tube exchanges the use of a mass transfer technique

A diffusion-controlled electrochemical mass transfer technique has been employed in making local measurements of shell-side coefficients in segmentally baffled shell and tube heat exchangers. Corresponding heat transfer data are predicted through the Chilton and Colburn heat and mass transfer analogy. Mass transfer coefficients were measured for baffle spacing lengths of individual tubes in an internal baffle compartment. Shell-side pressure measurements were also made. Baffle compartment average coefficients derived from individual tube coefficients are shown to be in good agreement with reported experimental bundle average heat transfer data for a heat exchanger model of similar geometry. Mass transfer coefficients of individual tubes compare favourably with those obtained previously by another mass transfer technique. Experimental data are reported for a variety of segmental baffle configurations over the shell-side Reynolds number range 100 to 42 000. Baffles with zero clearances were studied at three baffle cuts and two baffle spacings. Baffle geometry is shown to have a large effect on the distribution of tube coefficients within the baffle compartment. Fluid "jetting" is identified with some baffle configurations. No simple characteristic velocity is found to correlate zonal or baffle compartment average mass transfer data for the effect of both baffle cut and baffle spacing. Experiments with baffle clearances typical of commercial heat exchangers are also reported. The effect of leakage streams associated with these baffles is identified. Investigations were extended to double segmental baffles for which no data had previously been published. The similarity in the shell-side characteristics of this baffle arrangement and two parallel single segmental baffle arrangements is demonstrated. A general relationship between the shell-side mass transfer performance and pressure drop was indicated by the data for all the baffle configurations examined.

Statnote 15: the non-parametric correlation coefficients

If in a correlation test, one or both variables are small whole numbers, scores based on a limited scale, or percentages, a non-parametric correlation coefficient should be considered as an alternative to Pearson’s ‘r’. Kendall’s t and Spearman’s rs are similar tests but the former should be considered if the analysis is to be extended to include partial correlations. If the data contain many tied values, then gamma should be considered as a suitable test.

Statnote 17: using a regression line for prediction and calibration

Two types of prediction problem can be solved using a regression line viz., prediction of the ‘population’ regression line at the point ‘x’ and prediction of an ‘individual’ new member of the population ‘y1’ for which ‘x1’ has been measured. The second problem is probably the most commonly encountered and the most relevant to calibration studies. A regression line is likely to be most useful for calibration if the range of values of the X variable is large, if there is a good representation of the ‘x,y’ values across the range of X, and if several estimates of ‘y’ are made at each ‘x’. It is poor statistical practice to use a regression line for calibration or prediction beyond the limits of the data.

Transfer coefficients over inclined tube banks

The thesis presents experimental results for shell-side transfer coefficients and pressure drops across four different tube banks, using small-scale models, with yawed tubes, as found in many types of heat exchangers, boilers and nuclear reactors. The tube banks investigated have a staggered tube layout on a rotated square pitch, with a 1.25 pitch-to-diameter ratio. The angle of attack was varied between 45o and 90o. An extensive range of Reynolds number, i.e. 0.5. to 12,600, covering so-called laminar, transition and turbulent flows, was investigated. A diffusion-controlled electrochemical mass transfer technique has been employed to measure mass transfer coefficients. The heat transfer coefficients may be then readily obtained from the mass transfer values by applying the well-established Chilton-Colburn analogy. The results for the normal tube bank, which forms the base case for the study on inclined tube banks, show close agreement with previous work. The transfer coefficients and pressure drops of the inclined tube banks are compared with results from the ideal normal tube bank to examine the effect of inclination angle on heat transfer and pressure drop variations. The variation of the transfer coefficients row-by-row and the entrance and exit effects have also been investigated. An auxilary investigation has been carried out on the role of natural convection. A preliminary correlation of transfer coefficients and pressure drops against the variation in the yaw angle has been attempted. The results are discussed in the light of the few existing theoretical treatments and experimental data for these situations, and recommendations made for future work.

Non-Linear oil firm force coefficients for a journal bearing operating under aligned and misaligned conditions

It is well established that hydrodynamic journal bearings are responsible for self-excited vibrations and have the effect of lowering the critical speeds of rotor systems. The forces within the oil film wedge, generated by the vibrating journal, may be represented by displacement and velocity coefficient~ thus allowing the dynamical behaviour of the rotor to be analysed both for stability purposes and for anticipating the response to unbalance. However, information describing these coefficients is sparse, misleading, and very often not applicable to industrial type bearings. Results of a combined analytical and experimental investigation into the hydrodynamic oil film coefficients operating in the laminar region are therefore presented, the analysis being applied to a 120 degree partial journal bearing having a 5.0 in diameter journal and a LID ratio of 1.0. The theoretical analysis shows that for this type of popular bearing, the eight linearized coefficients do not accurately describe the behaviour of the vibrating journal based on the theory of small perturbations, due to them being masked by the presence of nonlinearity. A method is developed using the second order terms of Taylor expansion whereby design charts are provided which predict the twentyeight force coefficients for both aligned, and for varying amounts of journal misalignment. The resulting non-linear equations of motion are solved using a modified Newton-Raphson method whereby the whirl trajectories are obtained, thus providing a physical appreciation of the bearing characteristics under dynamically loaded conditions.

Drag coefficients with applications to satellite orbits

In the last twenty or so years the results of theory and experiment have produced much information on the characteristics of gas-surface interactions relevant to a satellite in hyperthermal free-molecular flow. This thesis contains reviews of the rarefied gas dynamics applicable to satellites and has attempted to compare existing models of gas-surface interaction with contemporary knowledge of such systems. It is shown that a more natural approach would be to characterise the gas-surface interaction using the normal and tangential momentum accommodation coefficients, igma' and igma respectively, specifically in the form igma = constant , igma' = igma'0 -igma'1sec i where i is the angle subtended between the incident flow and the surface normal and igma,igma'0 and igma'1 are constants. Adopting these relationships, the effects of atmospheric lift on inclination, i, and atmospheric drag on the semi-major axis, a, and eccentricity, e, have been investigated. Applications to ANS-1 (1974-70A) show that the observed perturbation in i can be ascribed primarily to non-zero igma'1 whilst perturbations in a and e produce constraint equations between the three parameters. The numerical results seem to imply that a good theoretical orbit is achieved despite a much lower drag coefficient than anticipated by earlier theories.

The development of calibration and adaptive filtering procedures for neuromagnetic studies of human visual function

This thesis first considers the calibration and signal processing requirements of a neuromagnetometer for the measurement of human visual function. Gradiometer calibration using straight wire grids is examined and optimal grid configurations determined, given realistic constructional tolerances. Simulations show that for gradiometer balance of 1:104 and wire spacing error of 0.25mm the achievable calibration accuracy of gain is 0.3%, of position is 0.3mm and of orientation is 0.6°. Practical results with a 19-channel 2nd-order gradiometer based system exceed this performance. The real-time application of adaptive reference noise cancellation filtering to running-average evoked response data is examined. In the steady state, the filter can be assumed to be driven by a non-stationary step input arising at epoch boundaries. Based on empirical measures of this driving step an optimal progression for the filter time constant is proposed which improves upon fixed time constant filter performance. The incorporation of the time-derivatives of the reference channels was found to improve the performance of the adaptive filtering algorithm by 15-20% for unaveraged data, falling to 5% with averaging. The thesis concludes with a neuromagnetic investigation of evoked cortical responses to chromatic and luminance grating stimuli. The global magnetic field power of evoked responses to the onset of sinusoidal gratings was shown to have distinct chromatic and luminance sensitive components. Analysis of the results, using a single equivalent current dipole model, shows that these components arise from activity within two distinct cortical locations. Co-registration of the resulting current source localisations with MRI shows a chromatically responsive area lying along the midline within the calcarine fissure, possibly extending onto the lingual and cuneal gyri. It is postulated that this area is the human homologue of the primate cortical area V4.

Fabrication of high quality optical coherence tomography (OCT) calibration artefacts using femtosecond inscription

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive three-dimensional imaging system that is capable of producing high resolution in-vivo images. OCT is approved for use in clinical trials in Japan, USA and Europe. For OCT to be used effectively in a clinical diagnosis, a method of standardisation is required to assess the performance across different systems. This standardisation can be implemented using highly accurate and reproducible artefacts for calibration at both installation and throughout the lifetime of a system. Femtosecond lasers can write highly reproducible and highly localised micro-structured calibration artefacts within a transparent media. We report on the fabrication of high quality OCT calibration artefacts in fused silica using a femtosecond laser. The calibration artefacts were written in fused silica due to its high purity and ability to withstand high energy femtosecond pulses. An Amplitude Systemes s-Pulse Yb:YAG femtosecond laser with an operating wavelength of 1026 nm was used to inscribe three dimensional patterns within the highly optically transmissive substrate. Four unique artefacts have been designed to measure a wide variety of parameters, including the points spread function (PSF), modulation transfer function (MTF), sensitivity, distortion and resolution - key parameters which define the performance of the OCT. The calibration artefacts have been characterised using an optical microscope and tested on a swept source OCT. The results demonstrate that the femtosecond laser inscribed artefacts have the potential of quantitatively and qualitatively validating the performance of any OCT system.

Three-dimensional calibration targets for optical coherence tomography

The recent expansion of clinical applications for optical coherence tomography (OCT) is driving the development of approaches for consistent image acquisition. There is a simultaneous need for time-stable, easy-to-use imaging targets for calibration and standardization of OCT devices. We present calibration targets consisting of three-dimensional structures etched into nanoparticle-embedded resin. Spherical iron oxide nanoparticles with a predominant particle diameter of 400 nm were homogeneously dispersed in a two part polyurethane resin and allowed to harden overnight. These samples were then etched using a precision micromachining femtosecond laser with a center wavelength of 1026 nm, 100kHz repetition rate and 450 fs pulse duration. A series of lines in depth were etched, varying the percentage of inscription energy and speed of the translation stage moving the target with respect to the laser. Samples were imaged with a dual wavelength spectral-domain OCT system and point-spread function of nanoparticles within the target was measured.

Managers' perceptual errors revisited:the role of knowledge calibration

Insights from the stream of research on knowledge calibration, which refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge, enable a better understanding of consequences of inaccurate perceptions of managers. This paper examines the consequences of inaccurate managerial knowledge through the lens of knowledge calibration. Specifically, the paper examines the antecedent role of miscalibration of knowledge in strategy formation. It is postulated that miscalibrated managers who overestimate external factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more evolutionary and incremental in nature, whereas miscalibrated managers who overestimate internal factors and display a high level of confidence in their estimates are likely to enact strategies that are relatively more discontinuous and disruptive in nature. Perspectives from social cognitive theory provide support for the underlying processes. The paper, in part, explains the paradox of the prevalence of inaccurate managerial perceptions and efficacious performance. It also advances the literature on strategy formation through the application of the construct of knowledge calibration.

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge of the web. Being well-calibrated means that a person is realistic in his or her assessment of the level of knowledge that he or she possesses. This study finds that involvement leads to better calibration and that calibration is higher for procedural knowledge and common knowledge, as compared to declarative knowledge and specialized knowledge. Neither usage, nor experience, has any effect on calibration of knowledge of the web. No difference in calibration is observed between genders. But, in agreement with previous findings, this study also finds that males are more confident in their knowledge of the web. The results point out that calibration could be more a function of knowledge-specific factors and less that of individual-specific factors. The study also identifies flow and frustration with the web as consequences of calibration of knowledge of the web and draws the attention of future researchers to examine these aspects.

Quantitative interpretation of diffusion-ordered NMR spectra:can we rationalize small molecule diffusion coefficients?

Appealingly simple: A new method is described that allows the diffusion coefficient of a small molecule to be estimated given only the molecular weight and the viscosity of the solvent used. This method makes possible the quantitative interpretation of the diffusion domain of diffusion-ordered NMR spectra (see picture). © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Shared action spaces:a basis function framework for social re-calibration of sensorimotor representations supporting joint action

The article explores the possibilities of formalizing and explaining the mechanisms that support spatial and social perspective alignment sustained over the duration of a social interaction. The basic proposed principle is that in social contexts the mechanisms for sensorimotor transformations and multisensory integration (learn to) incorporate information relative to the other actor(s), similar to the "re-calibration" of visual receptive fields in response to repeated tool use. This process aligns or merges the co-actors' spatial representations and creates a "Shared Action Space" (SAS) supporting key computations of social interactions and joint actions; for example, the remapping between the coordinate systems and frames of reference of the co-actors, including perspective taking, the sensorimotor transformations required for lifting jointly an object, and the predictions of the sensory effects of such joint action. The social re-calibration is proposed to be based on common basis function maps (BFMs) and could constitute an optimal solution to sensorimotor transformation and multisensory integration in joint action or more in general social interaction contexts. However, certain situations such as discrepant postural and viewpoint alignment and associated differences in perspectives between the co-actors could constrain the process quite differently. We discuss how alignment is achieved in the first place, and how it is maintained over time, providing a taxonomy of various forms and mechanisms of space alignment and overlap based, for instance, on automaticity vs. control of the transformations between the two agents. Finally, we discuss the link between low-level mechanisms for the sharing of space and high-level mechanisms for the sharing of cognitive representations. © 2013 Pezzulo, Iodice, Ferraina and Kessler.

Three-dimensional calibration targets for optical coherence tomography

The recent expansion of clinical applications for optical coherence tomography (OCT) is driving the development of approaches for consistent image acquisition. There is a simultaneous need for time-stable, easy-to-use imaging targets for calibration and standardization of OCT devices. We present calibration targets consisting of three-dimensional structures etched into nanoparticle-embedded resin. Spherical iron oxide nanoparticles with a predominant particle diameter of 400 nm were homogeneously dispersed in a two part polyurethane resin and allowed to harden overnight. These samples were then etched using a precision micromachining femtosecond laser with a center wavelength of 1026 nm, 100kHz repetition rate and 450 fs pulse duration. A series of lines in depth were etched, varying the percentage of inscription energy and speed of the translation stage moving the target with respect to the laser. Samples were imaged with a dual wavelength spectral-domain OCT system and point-spread function of nanoparticles within the target was measured.