Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

The development of a modified dissolution method suitable for investigating powder mixtures

A novel dissolution method was developed, suitable for powder mixtures, based on the USP basket apparatus. The baskets were modified such that the powder mixtures were retained within the baskets and not dispersed, a potential difficulty that may arise when using conventional USP basket and paddle apparatus. The advantages of this method were that the components of the mixtures were maintained in close proximity, maximizing any drug:excipient interaction and leading to more linear dissolution profiles. Two weakly acidic model drugs, ibuprofen and acetaminophen, and a selection of pharmaceutical excipients, including potential dissolution-enhancing alkalizing agents, were chosen for investigation. Dissolution profiles were obtained for simple physical mixtures. The f1 fit factor values, calculated using pure drug as the reference material, demonstrated a trend in line with expectations, with several dissolution enhancers apparent for both drugs. Also, the dissolution rates were linear over substantial parts of the profiles. For both drugs, a rank order comparison between the f1 fit factor and calculated dissolution rate, obtained from the linear section of the dissolution profile, demonstrated a correlation using a significance level of P=0.05. The method was proven to be suitable for discriminating between the effects of excipients on the dissolution of the model drugs. The method design produced dissolution profiles where the dissolution rate was linear for a substantial time, allowing determination of the dissolution rate without mathematical transformation of the data. This method may be suitable as a preliminary excipient-screening tool in the drug formulation development process.

GLM-beamformer method demonstrates stationary field, alpha ERD and gamma ERS co-localisation with fMRI BOLD response in visual cortex

Recently, we introduced a new 'GLM-beamformer' technique for MEG analysis that enables accurate localisation of both phase-locked and non-phase-locked neuromagnetic effects, and their representation as statistical parametric maps (SPMs). This provides a useful framework for comparison of the full range of MEG responses with fMRI BOLD results. This paper reports a 'proof of principle' study using a simple visual paradigm (static checkerboard). The five subjects each underwent both MEG and fMRI paradigms. We demonstrate, for the first time, the presence of a sustained (DC) field in the visual cortex, and its co-localisation with the visual BOLD response. The GLM-beamformer analysis method is also used to investigate the main non-phase-locked oscillatory effects: an event-related desynchronisation (ERD) in the alpha band (8-13 Hz) and an event-related synchronisation (ERS) in the gamma band (55-70 Hz). We show, using SPMs and virtual electrode traces, the spatio-temporal covariance of these effects with the visual BOLD response. Comparisons between MEG and fMRI data sets generally focus on the relationship between the BOLD response and the transient evoked response. Here, we show that the stationary field and changes in oscillatory power are also important contributors to the BOLD response, and should be included in future studies on the relationship between neuronal activation and the haemodynamic response. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of spatial patterns in histological sections of brain tissue using a method based on regression

A method of determining the spatial pattern of any histological feature in sections of brain tissue which can be measured quantitatively is described and compared with a previously described method. A measurement of a histological feature such as density, area, amount or load is obtained for a series of contiguous sample fields. The regression coefficient (β) is calculated from the measurements taken in pairs, first in pairs of adjacent samples and then in pairs of samples taken at increasing degrees of separation between them, i.e. separated by 2, 3, 4,..., n units. A plot of β versus the degree of separation between the pairs of sample fields reveals whether the histological feature is distributed randomly, uniformly or in clusters. If the feature is clustered, the analysis determines whether the clusters are randomly or regularly distributed, the mean size of the clusters and the spacing of the clusters. The method is simple to apply and interpret and is illustrated using simulated data and studies of the spatial patterns of blood vessels in the cerebral cortex of normal brain, the degree of vacuolation of the cortex in patients with Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease (CJD) and the characteristic lesions present in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Copyright (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Fast algorithms for automatic mapping with space-limited covariance functions

In this paper we discuss a fast Bayesian extension to kriging algorithms which has been used successfully for fast, automatic mapping in emergency conditions in the Spatial Interpolation Comparison 2004 (SIC2004) exercise. The application of kriging to automatic mapping raises several issues such as robustness, scalability, speed and parameter estimation. Various ad-hoc solutions have been proposed and used extensively but they lack a sound theoretical basis. In this paper we show how observations can be projected onto a representative subset of the data, without losing significant information. This allows the complexity of the algorithm to grow as O(n m 2), where n is the total number of observations and m is the size of the subset of the observations retained for prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to further extend this projective method through the application of space-limited covariance functions, which can be used as an alternative to the commonly used covariance models. In many real world applications the correlation between observations essentially vanishes beyond a certain separation distance. Thus it makes sense to use a covariance model that encompasses this belief since this leads to sparse covariance matrices for which optimised sparse matrix techniques can be used. In the presence of extreme values we show that space-limited covariance functions offer an additional benefit, they maintain the smoothness locally but at the same time lead to a more robust, and compact, global model. We show the performance of this technique coupled with the sparse extension to the kriging algorithm on synthetic data and outline a number of computational benefits such an approach brings. To test the relevance to automatic mapping we apply the method to the data used in a recent comparison of interpolation techniques (SIC2004) to map the levels of background ambient gamma radiation. © Springer-Verlag 2007.

Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Developments and extensions of Roth's method of double Fourier series with applications to the solution of electromagnetic field problems

The first part of the thesis compares Roth's method with other methods, in particular the method of separation of variables and the finite cosine transform method, for solving certain elliptic partial differential equations arising in practice. In particular we consider the solution of steady state problems associated with insulated conductors in rectangular slots. Roth's method has two main disadvantages namely the slow rate of con­vergence of the double Fourier series and the restrictive form of the allowable boundary conditions. A combined Roth-separation of variables method is derived to remove the restrictions on the form of the boundary conditions and various Chebyshev approximations are used to try to improve the rate of convergence of the series. All the techniques are then applied to the Neumann problem arising from balanced rectangular windings in a transformer window. Roth's method is then extended to deal with problems other than those resulting from static fields. First we consider a rectangular insulated conductor in a rectangular slot when the current is varying sinusoidally with time. An approximate method is also developed and compared with the exact method.The approximation is then used to consider the problem of an insulated conductor in a slot facing an air gap. We also consider the exact method applied to the determination of the eddy-current loss produced in an isolated rectangular conductor by a transverse magnetic field varying sinusoidally with time. The results obtained using Roth's method are critically compared with those obtained by other authors using different methods. The final part of the thesis investigates further the application of Chebyshdev methods to the solution of elliptic partial differential equations; an area where Chebyshev approximations have rarely been used. A poisson equation with a polynomial term is treated first followed by a slot problem in cylindrical geometry.

A critical assessment of the finite element method for calculating electric and magnetic fields

The present dissertation is concerned with the determination of the magnetic field distribution in ma[.rnetic electron lenses by means of the finite element method. In the differential form of this method a Poisson type equation is solved by numerical methods over a finite boundary. Previous methods of adapting this procedure to the requirements of digital computers have restricted its use to computers of extremely large core size. It is shown that by reformulating the boundary conditions, a considerable reduction in core store can be achieved for a given accuracy of field distribution. The magnetic field distribution of a lens may also be calculated by the integral form of the finite element rnethod. This eliminates boundary problems mentioned but introduces other difficulties. After a careful analysis of both methods it has proved possible to combine the advantages of both in a .new approach to the problem which may be called the 'differential-integral' finite element method. The application of this method to the determination of the magnetic field distribution of some new types of magnetic lenses is described. In the course of the work considerable re-programming of standard programs was necessary in order to reduce the core store requirements to a minimum.

Comparison of techniques for measuring anterior chamber depth:Orbscan imaging, Smith's technique, and van Herick's method

Background Evaluation of anterior chamber depth (ACD) can potentially identify those patients at risk of angle-closure glaucoma. We aimed to: compare van Herick’s limbal chamber depth (LCDvh) grades with LCDorb grades calculated from the Orbscan anterior chamber angle values; determine Smith’s technique ACD and compare to Orbscan ACD; and calculate a constant for Smith’s technique using Orbscan ACD. Methods Eighty participants free from eye disease underwent LCDvh grading, Smith’s technique ACD, and Orbscan anterior chamber angle and ACD measurement. Results LCDvh overestimated grades by a mean of 0.25 (coefficient of repeatability [CR] 1.59) compared to LCDorb. Smith’s technique (constant 1.40 and 1.31) overestimated ACD by a mean of 0.33 mm (CR 0.82) and 0.12 mm (CR 0.79) respectively, compared to Orbscan. Using linear regression, we determined a constant of 1.22 for Smith’s slit-length method. Conclusions Smith’s technique (constant 1.31) provided an ACD that is closer to that found with Orbscan compared to a constant of 1.40 or LCDvh. Our findings also suggest that Smith’s technique would produce values closer to that obtained with Orbscan by using a constant of 1.22.

Gabor-based region covariance matrices for face recognition

This paper presents a new method for human face recognition by utilizing Gabor-based region covariance matrices as face descriptors. Both pixel locations and Gabor coefficients are employed to form the covariance matrices. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages of this proposed method.

Statnote 31:analysis of covariance

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is a useful method of ‘error control’, i.e., it can reduce the size of the error variance in an experimental or observational study. An initial measure obtained before the experiment, which is closely related to the final measurement, is used to adjust the final measurements, thus reducing the error variance. When this method is used to reduce the error term, the X variable must not itself be affected by the experimental treatments, because part of the treatment effect would then also be removed. Hence, the method can only be safely used when X is measured before an experiment. A further limitation of the analysis is that only the linear effect of Y on X is being removed and it is possible that Y could be a curvilinear function of X. A question often raised is whether ANCOVA should be used routinely in experiments rather than a randomized blocks or split-plot design, which may also reduce the error variance. The answer to this question depends on the relative precision of the difference methods with reference to each scenario. Considerable judgment is often required to select the best experimental design and statistical help should be sought at an early stage of an investigation.

A new creep test method for asphalt mixtures

A new creep test, Partial Triaxial Test (PTT), was developed to study the permanent deformation properties of asphalt mixtures. The PTT used two duplicate platens whose diameters were smaller than the diameter of the cylindrical asphalt mixtures specimen. One base platen was centrally placed under the specimen and another loading platen was centrally placed on the top surface of the specimen. Then the compressive repeated load was applied on the loading platen and the vertical deformation of the asphalt mixture was recorded in the PTTs. Triaxial repeated load permanent deformation tests (TRT) and PTTs were respectively conducted on AC20 and SMA13 asphalt mixtures at 40°C and 60°C so as to provide the parameters of the creep constitutive relations in the ABAQUS finite element models (FEMs) which were built to simulate the laboratory wheel tracking tests. The real laboratory wheel tracking tests were also conducted on AC20 and SMA13 asphalt mixtures at 40°C and 60°C. Then the calculated rutting depth from the FEMs were compared with the measured rutting depth of the laboratory wheeling tracking tests. Results indicated that PTT was able to characterize the permanent deformation of the asphalt mixtures in laboratory. The rutting depth calculated using the parameters estimated from PTTs' results was closer to and showed better matches with the measured rutting than the rutting depth calculated using the parameters estimated from TRTs' results. Main reason was that PTT could better simulate the changing confinement conditions of asphalt mixtures in the laboratory wheeling tracking tests than the TRT.

State detection of bond wires in IGBT modules using eddy current pulsed thermography

Insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) modules are important safety critical components in electrical power systems. Bond wire lift-off, a plastic deformation between wire bond and adjacent layers of a device caused by repeated power/thermal cycles, is the most common failure mechanism in IGBT modules. For the early detection and characterization of such failures, it is important to constantly detect or monitor the health state of IGBT modules, and the state of bond wires in particular. This paper introduces eddy current pulsed thermography (ECPT), a nondestructive evaluation technique, for the state detection and characterization of bond wire lift-off in IGBT modules. After the introduction of the experimental ECPT system, numerical simulation work is reported. The presented simulations are based on the 3-D electromagnetic-thermal coupling finite-element method and analyze transient temperature distribution within the bond wires. This paper illustrates the thermal patterns of bond wires using inductive heating with different wire statuses (lifted-off or well bonded) under two excitation conditions: nonuniform and uniform magnetic field excitations. Experimental results show that uniform excitation of healthy bonding wires, using a Helmholtz coil, provides the same eddy currents on each, while different eddy currents are seen on faulty wires. Both experimental and numerical results show that ECPT can be used for the detection and characterization of bond wires in power semiconductors through the analysis of the transient heating patterns of the wires. The main impact of this paper is that it is the first time electromagnetic induction thermography, so-called ECPT, has been employed on power/electronic devices. Because of its capability of contactless inspection of multiple wires in a single pass, and as such it opens a wide field of investigation in power/electronic devices for failure detection, performance characterization, and health monitoring.