Learning curves for Gaussian processes models: fluctuations and universality

Based on a statistical mechanics approach, we develop a method for approximately computing average case learning curves and their sample fluctuations for Gaussian process regression models. We give examples for the Wiener process and show that universal relations (that are independent of the input distribution) between error measures can be derived.

A variational approach to learning curves

We combine the replica approach from statistical physics with a variational approach to analyze learning curves analytically. We apply the method to Gaussian process regression. As a main result we derive approximative relations between empirical error measures, the generalization error and the posterior variance.

IT support for managing aircraft spares in a closed-loop supply chain

This paper reports on the development of elements of an e-supply chain management system for managing maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) relationships in the aerospace industry. A standard systems development methodology has been followed to produce a process model (i.e. the AMSCR model); an information model (i.e. business rules) and a computerised information management capability (i.e. automated optimisation). The proof of concept for this web-based MRO supply chain system has been established through the collaboration with a sample of the different types of supply chain members. The proven benefit is a reduction in the stock-holding costs for the whole supply chain whilst also minimising non-flying time of the aircraft that the supply chain supports. This type of system is now vital in an industry that has continuously decreasing profit margins, which in turn means pressure to reduce servicing times and increase the interval between maintenance actions.

Growth curves of four crustose lichens

The growth curves of four common species of crustose lichens, viz., Buellia aethalea (Ach.) Th. Fr., Lecidea tumida Massai., Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC., and Rhizocarpon reductum Th. Fr. were studied at a site in south Gwynedd, north Wales, UK. Radial growth rates (RGR, mm 1.5 yr-1) were greatest in thalli of R. reductum and least in R. geographicum. Variation in RGR between thalli was greater in B. aethalea and L. tumida than in the species of Rhizocarpon. The relationship between growth rate and thallus diameter was not asymptotic; RGR increasing in smaller thalli to a maximum and then declining in larger diameter thalli. A polynomial curve was fitted to the data; the growth curves being fitted best by a second-order (quadratic) curve, the best fit to this model being shown by B. aethalea. A significant linear regression with a negative slope was also fitted to the growth of the larger thalli of each species. The data suggest that the growth curves of the four crustose lichens differ significantly from the asymptotic curves of foliose lichen species. A phase of declining RGR in larger thalli appears to be characteristic of crustose lichens and is consistent with data from lichenometric studies.

Optimizing measurement of subjective amplitude of accommodation with defocus curves

PURPOSE: To determine whether letter sequences and/or lens-presentation order should be randomized when measuring defocus curves and to assess the most appropriate criterion for calculating the subjective amplitude of accommodation (AoA) from defocus curves. SETTING: Eye Clinic, School of Life & Health Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom. METHODS: Defocus curves (from +3.00 diopters [D] to -3.00 D in 0.50 D steps) for 6 possible combinations of randomized or nonrandomized letter sequences and/or lens-presentation order were measured in a random order in 20 presbyopic subjects. Subjective AoA was calculated from the defocus curves by curve fitting using various published criteria, and each was correlated to subjective push-up AoA. Objective AoA was measured for comparison of blur tolerance and pupil size. RESULTS: Randomization of lens-presentation order and/or letter sequences, or lack of, did not affect the measured defocus curves (P>.05, analysis of variance). The range of defocus that maintains highest achievable visual acuity (allowing for variability of repeated measurement) was better correlated to (r = 0.84) and agreed best with ( 0.50 D) subjective push-up AoA than any other relative or absolute acuity criterion used in previous studies. CONCLUSIONS: Nonrandomized letters and lens presentation on their own did not affect subjective AoA measured by defocus curves, although their combination should be avoided. Quantification of subjective AoA from defocus curves should be standardized to the range of defocus that maintains the best achievable visual acuity.

Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

Multifocal intraocular lens differentiation using defocus curves

Purpose: To determine the most appropriate analysis technique for the differentiation of multifocal intraocular lens (MIOL) designs using defocus curve assessment of visual capability.Methods:Four groups of fifteen subjects were implanted bilaterally with either monofocal intraocular lenses, refractive MIOLs, diffractive MIOLs, or a combination of refractive and diffractive MIOLs. Defocus curves between -5.0D and +1.5D were evaluated using an absolute and relative depth-of-focus method, the direct comparison method and a new 'Area-of-focus' metric. The results were correlated with a subjective perception of near and intermediate vision. Results:Neither depth-of-focus method of analysis were sensitive enough to differentiate between MIOL groups (p>0.05). The direct comparison method indicated that the refractive MIOL group performed better at +1.00, -1.00 and -1.50 D and worse at -3.00, -3.50, -4.00 and -5.00D compared to the diffractive MIOL group (p

Infection risk associated with a closed luer access device

The potential for microbial contamination associated with a recently developed needleless closed luer access device (CLAD) (Q-Syte™ Becton Dickinson, Sandy, UT, USA) was evaluated in vitro. Compression seals of 50 multiply activated Q-Syte devices were inoculated with Staphylococcus epidermidis NCTC 9865 in 25% (v/v) human blood and then disinfected with 70% (v/v) isopropyl alcohol followed by flushing with 0.9% (w/v) sterile saline. Forty-eight of 50 (96%) saline flushes passed through devices that had been activated up to a maximum of 70 times remained sterile. A further 25 Q-Syte CLADs that had undergone multiple activations were challenged with prefilled 0.9% (w/v) sterile saline syringes, the external luer tips of which had been inoculated with S. epidermidis NCTC 9865 prior to accessing the devices. None of the devices that had been accessed up to 70 times allowed passage of micro-organisms, despite challenge micro-organisms being detected on both the syringe tip after activation and the compression seals before decontamination. These findings suggest that the Q-Syte CLAD may be activated up to 70 times with no increased risk of microbial contamination within the fluid pathway. The device may also offer protection from the external surface of syringe tips contaminated with micro-organisms. © 2005 Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size distribution curves of senile plaques in patients with Alzheimer’s disease: do plaques grow according to the log-normal model?

The size frequency distributions of diffuse, primitive and cored senile plaques (SP) were studied in single sections of the temporal lobe from 10 patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The size distribution curves were unimodal and positively skewed. The size distribution curve of the diffuse plaques was shifted towards larger plaques while those of the neuritic and cored plaques were shifted towards smaller plaques. The neuritic/diffuse plaque ratio was maximal in the 11 – 30 micron size class and the cored/ diffuse plaque ratio in the 21 – 30 micron size class. The size distribution curves of the three types of plaque deviated significantly from a log-normal distribution. Distributions expressed on a logarithmic scale were ‘leptokurtic’, i.e. with excess of observations near the mean. These results suggest that SP in AD grow to within a more restricted size range than predicted from a log-normal model. In addition, there appear to be differences in the patterns of growth of diffuse, primitive and cored plaques. If neuritic and cored plaques develop from earlier diffuse plaques, then smaller diffuse plaques are more likely to be converted to mature plaques.

A comparison of the growth curves of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa determined by a cross-sectional study and by direct measurement

Changes in the radial growth rate (RGR mm/yr) through life were studied in thalli of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa by two methods: (1) a cross-sectional study (Study A) in which the RGR was measured in 60 thalli from 0.2 to 13 cm in diameter, and (2) by radial growth measurements over 4.5 years of fragments, consisting of a single major lobe, which were removed from large thalli and glued to pieces of slate (Study B). Both studies suggested there was a phase of increasing RGR in small thalli followed by a more constant phase, the latter beginning at approximately a thallus radius of 6-8 mm. However, in Study B significantly increased RGR was observed during the second 6-month growth period. This phase of growth was more likely to be due to an increase in lobe width than to an effect of climate. In addition, a lobe in a large thallus with both adjacent lobes removed significantly increased in width over 1 year compared with control lobes. These results suggest that (1) mean lobe width in a thallus may be determined by the intensity of marginal competition between adjacent lobes, and (2) changes in lobe width during the life of a lichen thallus may be a factor determining the establishment of the linear phase of growth in foliose lichens. © 1992.

Neural population coding is optimized by discrete tuning curves

The sigmoidal tuning curve that maximizes the mutual information for a Poisson neuron, or population of Poisson neurons, is obtained. The optimal tuning curve is found to have a discrete structure that results in a quantization of the input signal. The number of quantization levels undergoes a hierarchy of phase transitions as the length of the coding window is varied. We postulate, using the mammalian auditory system as an example, that the presence of a subpopulation structure within a neural population is consistent with an optimal neural code.

Effect of aspect ratio on thermal convection in open and closed systems

Internally heated fluids are found across the nuclear fuel cycle. In certain situations the motion of the fluid is driven by the decay heat (i.e. corium melt pools in severe accidents, the shutdown of liquid metal reactors, molten salt and the passive control of light water reactors) as well as normal operation (i.e. intermediate waste storage and generation IV reactor designs). This can in the long-term affect reactor vessel integrity or lead to localized hot spots and accumulation of solid wastes that may prompt local increases in activity. Two approaches to the modeling of internally heated convection are presented here. These are based on numerical analysis using codes developed in-house and simulations using widely available computational fluid dynamics solvers. Open and closed fluid layers at around the transition between conduction and convection of various aspect ratios are considered. We determine optimum domain aspect ratio (1:7:7 up to 1:24:24 for open systems and 5:5:1, 1:10:10 and 1:20:20 for closed systems), mesh resolutions and turbulence models required to accurately and efficiently capture the convection structures that evolve when perturbing the conductive state of the fluid layer. Note that the open and closed fluid layers we study here are bounded by a conducting surface over an insulating surface. Conclusions will be drawn on the influence of the periodic boundary conditions on the flow patterns observed. We have also examined the stability of the nonlinear solutions that we found with the aim of identifying the bifurcation sequence of these solutions en route to turbulence.