How unlucky is 25-sigma?

Purpose - To identify the likelihood of a 25-standard deviation occurring in stock prices over several successive days, in the light of comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs.. Design/methodology/approach - Assumes a bell-curve of market losses and graphs the probability of an event relative to the number of deviations. Calculates using MATLAB for sigmas over 7. Considers whether the losses of US investment banks in 2008 were the result of bad luck or of incompetence. Findings - Finds that the probability of a 25-sigma event is every 100,000 +130 decimal points years. Practical implications - Argues that bad luck is usually associated with incompetence, and investors need not choose between them. Originality/value - Presents the mathematical absurdity of a finance officer's statement, and its implications.

Anterior eye health recording

Aims: To survey eye care practitioners from around the world regarding their current practice for anterior eye health recording to inform guidelines on best practice. Methods: The on-line survey examined the reported use of: word descriptions, sketching, grading scales or photographs; paper or computerised record cards and whether these were guided by proforma headings; grading scale choice, signs graded, level of precision, regional grading; and how much time eye care practitioners spent on average on anterior eye health recording. Results: Eight hundred and nine eye care practitioners from across the world completed the survey. Word description (p <. 0.001), sketches (p = 0.002) and grading scales (p <. 0.001) were used more for recording the anterior eye health of contact lens patients than other patients, but photography was used similarly (p = 0.132). Of the respondents, 84.5% used a grading scale, 13.5% using two, with the original Efron (51.6%) and CCLRU/Brien-Holden-Vision-Institute (48.5%) being the most popular. The median features graded was 11 (range 1-23), frequency from 91.6% (bulbar hyperaemia) to 19.6% (endothelial blebs), with most practitioners grading to the nearest unit (47.4%) and just 14.7% to one decimal place. The average time taken to report anterior eye health was reported to be 6.8. ±. 5.7. min, with the maximum time available 14.0. ±. 11. min. Conclusions: Developed practice and research evidence allows best practice guidelines for anterior eye health recording to be recommended. It is recommended to: record which grading scale is used; always grade to one decimal place, record what you see live rather than based on how you intend to manage a condition; grade bulbar and limbal hyperaemia, limbal neovascularisation, conjunctival papillary redness and roughness (in white light to assess colouration with fluorescein instilled to aid visualisation of papillae/follicles), blepharitis, meibomian gland dysfunction and sketch staining (both corneal and conjunctival) at every visit. Record other anterior eye features only if they are remarkable, but indicate that the key tissue which have been examined.