Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Canine mesenchymal stem cells are neurotrophic and angiogenic:an in vitro assessment of their paracrine activity

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been used in cell replacement therapies for connective tissue damage, but also can stimulate wound healing through paracrine activity. In order to further understand the potential use of MSCs to treat dogs with neurological disorders, this study examined the paracrine action of adipose-derived canine MSCs on neuronal and endothelial cell models. The culture-expanded MSCs exhibited a MSC phenotype according to plastic adherence, cell morphology, CD profiling and differentiation potential along mesenchymal lineages. Treating the SH-SY5Y neuronal cell line with serum-free MSC culture-conditioned medium (MSC CM) significantly increased SH-SY5Y cell proliferation (P < 0.01), neurite outgrowth (P = 0.0055) and immunopositivity for the neuronal marker βIII-tubulin (P = 0.0002). Treatment of the EA.hy926 endothelial cell line with MSC CM significantly increased the rate of wound closure in endothelial cell scratch wound assays (P = 0.0409), which was associated with significantly increased endothelial cell proliferation (P < 0.05) and migration (P = 0.0001). Furthermore, canine MSC CM induced endothelial tubule formation in EA.hy926 cells in a soluble basement membrane matrix. Hence, this study has demonstrated that adipose-derived canine MSC CM stimulated neuronal and endothelial cells probably through the paracrine activity of MSC-secreted factors. This supports the use of canine MSC transplants or their secreted products in the clinical treatment of dogs with neurological disorders and provides some insight into possible mechanisms of action.