Causality in crude oil prices

Economic media inform on prices of three well established crude oil benchmarks: Brent, WTI and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these is however declining with their low output - motivating investigation of the pricing dynamics. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just following the general market trends. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality, geographical and organisational segments. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are good price indicators. WTI and Brent still lead the market, but they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter, which confirms the lack of dominant benchmark within the segment of medium quality crudes.

Differential patterns of activity and functional connectivity in emotion processing neural circuitry to angry and happy faces in adolescents with and without suicide attempt

Background - Neural substrates of emotion dysregulation in adolescent suicide attempters remain unexamined. Method - We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure neural activity to neutral, mild or intense (i.e. 0%, 50% or 100% intensity) emotion face morphs in two separate emotion-processing runs (angry and happy) in three adolescent groups: (1) history of suicide attempt and depression (ATT, n = 14); (2) history of depression alone (NAT, n = 15); and (3) healthy controls (HC, n = 15). Post-hoc analyses were conducted on interactions from 3 group × 3 condition (intensities) whole-brain analyses (p < 0.05, corrected) for each emotion run. Results - To 50% intensity angry faces, ATT showed significantly greater activity than NAT in anterior cingulate gyral–dorsolateral prefrontal cortical attentional control circuitry, primary sensory and temporal cortices; and significantly greater activity than HC in the primary sensory cortex, while NAT had significantly lower activity than HC in the anterior cingulate gyrus and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. To neutral faces during the angry emotion-processing run, ATT had significantly lower activity than NAT in the fusiform gyrus. ATT also showed significantly lower activity than HC to 100% intensity happy faces in the primary sensory cortex, and to neutral faces in the happy run in the anterior cingulate and left medial frontal gyri (all p < 0.006,corrected). Psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed significantly reduced anterior cingulate gyral–insula functional connectivity to 50% intensity angry faces in ATT v. NAT or HC. Conclusions - Elevated activity in attention control circuitry, and reduced anterior cingulate gyral–insula functional connectivity, to 50% intensity angry faces in ATT than other groups suggest that ATT may show inefficient recruitment of attentional control neural circuitry when regulating attention to mild intensity angry faces, which may represent a potential biological marker for suicide risk.

Dissociable patterns of neural activity during response inhibition in depressed adolescents with and without suicidal behavior

Objectives - Impaired attentional control and behavioral control are implicated in adult suicidal behavior. Little is known about the functional integrity of neural circuitry supporting these processes in suicidal behavior in adolescence. Method - Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used in 15 adolescent suicide attempters with a history of major depressive disorder (ATTs), 15 adolescents with a history of depressive disorder but no suicide attempt (NATs), and 14 healthy controls (HCs) during the performance of a well-validated go-no-go response inhibition and motor control task that measures attentional and behavioral control and has been shown to activate prefrontal, anterior cingulate, and parietal cortical circuitries. Questionnaires assessed symptoms and standardized interviews characterized suicide attempts. Results - A 3 group by 2 condition (go-no-go response inhibition versus go motor control blocks) block-design whole-brain analysis (p < .05, corrected) showed that NATs showed greater activity than ATTs in the right anterior cingulate gyrus (p = .008), and that NATs, but not ATTs, showed significantly greater activity than HCs in the left insula (p = .004) to go-no-go response inhibition blocks. Conclusions - Although ATTs did not show differential patterns of neural activity from HCs during the go-no-go response inhibition blocks, ATTs and NATs showed differential activation of the right anterior cingulate gyrus during response inhibition. These findings indicate that suicide attempts during adolescence are not associated with abnormal activity in response inhibition neural circuitry. The differential patterns of activity in response inhibition neural circuitry in ATTs and NATs, however, suggest different neural mechanisms for suicide attempt versus major depressive disorder in general in adolescence that should be a focus of further study.