Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.

CEO compensation, option incentives and information disclosure

This paper examines the impact of information disclosure on the valuation of CEO options and the incentives created by those options. Prior executive compensation research in the US has made assumptions about key input variables that can affect the calculation of option values and financial incentives. Accordingly, biases may have ensued due to incomplete information disclosure about noncurrent option grants. Using new data on a sample of UK CEOs, we value executive option holdings and incentives for the first time and estimate the levels of distortion created by the less than complete US-style disclosure requirements. We also investigate the levels of distortion in the UK for the minority of companies that choose to reveal only partial information. Our results suggest that there have to date been few economic biases arising from less than complete information disclosure. Furthermore, we demonstrate that researchers using US data, who made reasonable assumptions about the inputs of noncurrent option grants, are unlikely to have made significant errors when calculating CEO financial incentives or option wealth. However, the recent downturn in the US stock market could result in the same assumptions, producing exaggerated incentive estimates in the future.

The disclosure of directors' share option information in UK companies

This paper considers the empirical determinants of the quality of information disclosed about directors’ share options in a sample of large companies in 1994 and 1995. Policy recommendations, consolidated in the recommendations of the Greenbury report, argue for full and complete disclosure of director option information. In this paper two modest contributions to the UK empirical literature are made. First, the current degree of option information disclosure in the FTSE 350 companies is documented. Second, option information disclosure as a function of variables that are thought to in¯uence corporate costs of disclosure is modelled. The results have implications for corporate governance. Speci®cally, support is oVered for the monitoring function of nonexecutive directors. In addition, nondisclosure is found to be related to variables which proxy proprietary costs of revealing information (such as company size).

Business as usual is not an option

It’s just not an option Sustainability literacy should by now be woven into the fabric of our educational culture. Our present ignorance and lack of engagement is nothing short of shameful, says John Blewitt.

Managing students' option choices with technology

This poster outlines the system which the Business School Undergraduate Programme has developed to manage the choice of options by students studying on its programmes. This involves the production of a networked computer package which presents students with the options available to them and leads them through the process of choosing their options on-line. The reasons for developing this system are outlined and the advantages which it has brought to the administration of large numbers of students are discussed.

Photodynamic therapy:a treatment option in choroidal neovascularisation secondary to punctate inner choroidopathy

Punctate inner choroidopathy is an idiopathic inflammatory ocular disorder characteristically seen in young myopic women. Visual prognosis is generally good but sight threatening choroidal neovascularisation may develop in up to 40% patients.1 We discuss verteporfin photodynamic therapy in subfoveal choroidal neovascularisation secondary to punctate inner choroidopathy that failed to respond to oral corticosteroids and had poor results with submacular surgery in the contralateral eye.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Developing real option game models

By mixing concepts from both game theoretic analysis and real options theory, an investment decision in a competitive market can be seen as a ‘‘game’’ between firms, as firms implicitly take into account other firms’ reactions to their own investment actions. We review two decades of real option game models, suggesting which critical problems have been ‘‘solved’’ by considering game theory, and which significant problems have not been yet adequately addressed. We provide some insights on the plausible empirical applications, or shortfalls in applications to date, and suggest some promising avenues for future research.