A virtual species set for robust and reproducible species distribution modelling tests

Predicting species potential and future distribution has become a relevant tool in biodiversity monitoring and conservation.In this data article we present the suitability map of a virtual species generated based on two bioclimatic variables, and a dataset containing more than 700,000 random observations at the extent of Europe. The dataset includes spatial attributes such as: distance to roads, protected areas, country codes, and the habitat suitability of two spatially clustered species (grassland and forest species) and a wide-spread species.

Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

Forecasting the UK/US exchange rate with divisia monetary models and neural networks

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative merits of the official Simple Sum and the weighted Divisia measures of money. Overall, there are four main findings. First, the majority of the models with fundamentals are able to beat the RW model in forecasting the UK/US exchange rate. Second, the most accurate forecasts of the UK/US exchange rate are obtained with a nonlinear model. Third, taking into account structural breaks reveals that the Divisia aggregate performs better than its Simple Sum counterpart. Finally, Divisia-based models provide more accurate forecasts than Simple Sum-based models provided they are constructed within a nonlinear framework.

Resource allocation in decentralised computational systems:an evolutionary market-based approach

We present a novel market-based method, inspired by retail markets, for resource allocation in fully decentralised systems where agents are self-interested. Our market mechanism requires no coordinating node or complex negotiation. The stability of outcome allocations, those at equilibrium, is analysed and compared for three buyer behaviour models. In order to capture the interaction between self-interested agents, we propose the use of competitive coevolution. Our approach is both highly scalable and may be tuned to achieve specified outcome resource allocations. We demonstrate the behaviour of our approach in simulation, where evolutionary market agents act on behalf of service providing nodes to adaptively price their resources over time, in response to market conditions. We show that this leads the system to the predicted outcome resource allocation. Furthermore, the system remains stable in the presence of small changes in price, when buyers' decision functions degrade gracefully. © 2009 The Author(s).

A classification model for product-service offerings

Organisations have been approaching servitisation in an unstructured fashion. This is partially because there is insufficient understanding of the different types of Product-Service offerings. Therefore, a more detailed understanding of Product-Service types might advance the collective knowledge and assist organisations that are considering a servitisation strategy. Current models discuss specific aspects on the basis of few (or sometimes single) dimensions. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for classifying traditional and green Product-Service offerings, thus combining business and green offerings in a single model. We describe the model building process and its practical application in a case study. The model reveals the various traditional and green options available to companies and identifies how to compete between services; it allows servitisation positions to be identified such that a company may track its journey over time. Finally it fosters the introduction of innovative Product-Service Systems as promising business models to address environmental and social challenges. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of environmental factors on the growth of lichens in the field

The majority of studies of the effects of environmental factors on lichen growth have been carried out in the field. Growth of lichens in the field has been measured as absolute growth rate (e.g., length growth, radial growth, diameter growth, area growth, or dry weight gain per unit of time) or as a relative growth rate, expressed per unit of thallus area or weight, e.g., thallus specific weight. Seasonal fluctuations in growth in the field often correlate best with changes in average or total rainfall or frequency of rain events through the year. In some regions of the world, temperature is also an important climatic factor influencing growth. Interactions between microclimatic factors such as light intensity, temperature, and moisture are particularly important in determining local differences in growth especially in relation to aspect and slope of rock surface, or height on a tree. Factors associated with the substratum including type, chemistry, texture, and porosity can all influence growth. In addition, growth can be influenced by the degree of nutrient enrichment of the substratum associated with bird droppings, nitrogen, phosphate, salinity, or pollution. Effects of environmental factors on growth can act directly to restrict species distribution or indirectly by altering the competitive balance among different species in a community.

eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling

The number of interoperable research infrastructures has increased significantly with the growing awareness of the efforts made by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). One of the Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that is benefiting most from GEOSS is biodiversity, given the costs of monitoring the environment and managing complex information, from space observations to species records including their genetic characteristics. But GEOSS goes beyond simple data sharing to encourage the publishing and combination of models, an approach which can ease the handling of complex multi-disciplinary questions. It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate these concepts by presenting eHabitat, a basic Web Processing Service (WPS) for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties to those specified by a user. When chained with other services providing data on climate change, eHabitat can be used for ecological forecasting and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers assessing different strategies when selecting new areas to protect. eHabitat can use virtually any kind of thematic data that can be considered as useful when defining ecosystems and their future persistence under different climatic or development scenarios. The paper will present the architecture and illustrate the concepts through case studies which forecast the impact of climate change on protected areas or on the ecological niche of an African bird.