Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

The size frequency distributions of beta-amyloid deposit subtypes in Alzheimer's disease

The size frequency distributions of diffuse, primitive and classic beta/A4 deposits was studied in single sections in the hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) and lateral occipitotemporal gyrus (LOT) in five cases of Alzheimer's disease. In most brain regions, the size distribution of the diffuse deposits was significantly different from that of the primitive and classic deposits. The data suggested that larger diffuse deposits appeared to be converted less often into primitive and classic deposits. Significant differences in the size distribution of primitive deposits were commonly observed between brain regions in which there was no difference in the size distribution of the diffuse deposits. Hence, local brain factors may influence the size of diffuse deposit which can be converted into mature amyloid deposit.

Laminar distribution of amyloid-beta (Abeta) deposits in dementia with Lewy bodies: comparison with Alzheimer's disease

Significant amyloid-beta (Abeta) deposition in cases of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) may represent concurrent Alzheimer's disease (AD). To test this hypothesis, the laminar distribution of the diffuse, primitive, and classic Abeta deposits was studied in the frontal and temporal cortex in cases of DLB and were compared with AD. In DLB, the diffuse and primitive deposits exhibited two common patterns of distribution; either maximum density occurred in the upper cortical laminae or a bimodal distribution was present with density peaks in the upper and lower laminae. In addition, a bimodal distribution of the classic deposits was observed in approximately half of the cortical areas analysed. A number of differences in the laminar distributions of Abeta deposits were observed in DLB and AD. First, the proportion of the primitive relative to the diffuse and classic deposits present was lower in DLB compared with AD. Second, the primitive deposits were more frequently bimodally distributed in DLB. Third, the density of the diffuse deposits reached a maximum lower in the cortical profile in AD. These data suggest differences in the pattern of cortical degeneration in the two disorders and therefore, DLB cases with significant Abeta pathology may not represent the coexistence of DLB and AD.

Size frequency distribution of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in dementia with Lewy bodies

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Down's syndrome (DS), the size frequency distribution of the beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits can be described by a log-normal model and may indictae the growth of the deposits. This study determined the size frequency distribution of the Abeta deposits in the temporal lobe in 8 casaes of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) with associated AD pathology (DLB/AD. The size distributions of Abeta deposits were unimodal and positively skewed; the mean size of deposi and the degree of skew varying with deposit type and brain region. Size distributions of the primitive deposits had lower means and were less skewed compared with the diffuse and classic deposits. In addition, size distributions in the hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) had larger means and a greater degree of skew compared with other cortical gyri. All size distributions deviated significantly from a log-normal model. There were more Abeta deposits than expected in the smaller size classes and fewer than expected near the mean and in the larger size classes. The data suggest thatthe pattern of growth of the Abeta deposits in DLB/AD depends both on deposit morphology and brain area. In addition, Abeta deposits in DLB appear to grow to within a more restricted size range than predicted and hence, to have less potential for growth compared with cases of 'pure' AD and DS.

Beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits and blood vessels: laminar distribution in the frontal cortex of patients with Alzheimer’s disease

The laminar distribution of diffuse, primitive and classic beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits and blood vessels was studied in the frontal cortex of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In most patients, the density of the diffuse and primitive Abeta deposits was greatest in the upper cortical layers and the classic deposits in the deeper cortical layers. The distribution of the larger blood vessels (>10 micron in diameter) was often bimodal with peaks in the upper and deeper cortical layers. The incidence of capillaries (<10 micron) was significantly higher in the deeper cortical layers in most patients. Multiple regression analysis selected vertical distance below the pia mater as the most significant factor correlated with the Abeta deposit density. With the exception of the classic deposits in two patients, there was no evidence that these vertical distributions were related to laminar variations in the incidence of large or small blood vessels.

The degradation of gel-spun poly(beta-hydroxybutyrate) fibrous matrix

Poly(β-hydroxybutyrate), (PHB), is a biologically produced, biodegradable thennoplastic with commercial potential. In this work the qualitative and quantitative investigations of the structure and degradation of a previously unstudied, novel, fibrous form of PHB, were completed. This gel-spun PHB fibrous matrix, PHB(FM), which has a similar appearance to cotton wool, possesses a relatively complex structure which combines a large volume with a low mass and has potential for use as a wound scaffolding device. As a result of the intrinsic problems presented by this novel structure, a new experimental procedure was developed to analyze the degradation of the PHB to its monomer hydroxybutyric acid, (HBA). This procedure was used in an accelerated degradation model which accurately monitored the degradation of the undegraded and degraded fractions of a fibrous matrix and the degradation of its PHB component. The in vitro degradation mechanism was also monitored using phase contrast and scanning electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, fibre diameter distributions and Fourier infra-red photoacoustic spectroscopy. The accelerated degradation model was used to predict the degradation of the samples in the physiological model and this provided a clearer picture as to the samples potential biodegradation as medical implantation devices. The degradation of the matrices was characterized by an initial penetration of the degradative medium and weakening of the fibre integrity due to cleavage of the ester linkages, this then led to the physical collapse of the fibres which increased the surface area to volume ratio of the sample and facilitated its degradation. Degradation in the later stages was reduced due to the experimental kinetics, compaction and degradation resistant material, most probably the highly crystalline regions of the PHB. The in vitro degradation of the PHB(FM) was influenced by blending with various polysaccharides, copolymerizing with poly(~-hydroxyvalerate), (PHV), and changes to the manufacturing process. The degradation was also detennined to be faster than that of conventional melt processed PHB based samples. It was concluded that the material factors such as processing, sample size and shape affected the degradation of PHB based samples with the major factor of sample surface area to volume ratio being of paramount importance in determining the degradation of a sample.